I don't doubt in the slightest that someone has at least prototypes working. What company wouldn't have working devices minimum 2 months prior to shipping dates?
According to their business plans and published statements?
None of them are running final gear right now, and
none of them are using it to mine on MainNet (nor will they)
They are all working with prototypes and simulations with just-in-time manufacturing for initial batches. Watch the updates in the BFL and bASIC threads and you can see things moving, but stuff gets in from China, gets flashed and tested, and goes right out the door with Tom. BFL is likely in the same boat.
Maybe they have had a prototype or 2 running, but they are using testnet-in-a-box, so we won't see the hashes even if they do. Until they have final hardware there is not much point to running a prototype board continuously, especially if there are material differences in components between the two.
Kids going back to uni. Free elect. Word gets around... That can add up too.
Can you say beer and weed money?
My favorite explanation if there IS a surge, I mean Duuuuuuude! You tell a few million Uni students about this (with an ear back to mommy that a new video card is needed for the computational mathematics class they are taking) and you are going to have 1000+ new miners easy. Same for FPGA (yeah, I really need the Vertex 7 Board!) ASIC might be a bit harder sell
