Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A! - page 5. (Read 85774 times)

No man. Gerbil droppings are real wealth! Because I just said so! No need to back it up with anything like logic and evidence or other such nonsense! Invest in gerbil droppings today!

Yep. We should have had a massive deflationary crash, but Helicopter Ben staved it off, and shored up the balance sheets of the financial institutions with trillions of fresh new M0 USD, created as a debt on the US taxpayers. Thus far, because the economy has been stagnant, that capital is all been stored up in bonds and has been responsible for pushing equities up. We haven't seen the real effects of inflation on prices, because all the new cash just hasn't been flowing around.....but when it does, i.e. when/if Trump gets his way, then I believe we will see the prices of everything rocket.

Whether this translates into another boom period or not, I think is impossible to predict. We are in unprecedented territory here with near zero or even negative interest rates. How does this even work? How are 'savings' meant to function? Furthermore, much of global consumption/demand in recent decades has been to feed China's export driven economy. As everyone knows, in order to keep themselves competitive, China pegged their CNY to the USD, keeping it artificially low, by printing more and more CNY to buy up all the excess USD being used to buy Chinese goods, thus importing US inflation. If Trump gets his way, and the probable rapid price inflation sets in as a result, then this seriously undermines the value of all the USD bonds held by the Chinese and indeed all other foreign entities, and this is not to mention the notion of Trump imposing tariffs on Chinese imports and/or finding other means of discouraging Chinese and other foreign imports.

So Chinese/global exports down, USD price inflation drastically up, trust in US debt down, which means that interest rates have to either rise a lot, or the Fed will have to keep on printing. Whilst the US economy may experience a brief boom due to Trump's spending spree; the global economy which was being fed by the US's seemingly unlimited consumption based on the power of the USD and the capacity of the financial system to increasingly expand the supply of those dollars, will surely experience a slow down. A real melting pot of contradictory forces, the offshoot of which for me is, that is all surely must lead to a big lapse in the confidence of US debt, if not an outright collapse, and to what, does capital turn to when confidence in the reserve currency subsides?

Bitcoin? (lol). Sure, Bitcoin and other cryptos may well catch a stupendous bid here, but hold on to yer hat and be prepared for the possibility of losing yer entire pot.

Gold! Gold is real wealth, and to where the serious money will always run.



They notice alright, and then they turn around and blame immigrants. This is why 'they' have seen to it that Europe has been flooded with Islamic immigrants as a result of the Zionist wars destabilising the Middle East and removing stable regimes which would otherwise control areas and enforce borders, and why Hillary was chomping at the bit to give America it's dose of Islamic immigration as well. Give the proles a scapegoat. Keep everyone at everyone else's throats.

Yeah, inflation is real and has been going on for some time now. It's the way the Powers that Be can 'socialize their losses' to the masses without raising taxes.  Privatize successes, socialize losses. That's their game.

Pretty much like the frog in a slow-boiling pot scenario, prices go up but inflation-adjusted income stays flat or declines.  Do that over a long enough period and the sheeple go about their lives and barely notice.... until they start to wonder why they can't afford a good life like their parents had, or why they can't seem to make enough money, no matter how hard they try. Or why they can't afford to even have one child, let along multiple, like their parents could.

They don't really notice that their school loans, power bill, food bill, cable bill, health insurance, and maintenance costs have doubled over the last 7 years, while their income stayed the same.  Even purchases like the price of new cars have increased 20-25% over the last decade, yet the sheeple act like nothing happened.

Last time I read a Goldman Sachs press statement, it was Jan 2016, Oil was $25, and Goldman predicted that oil was going to go to $10, where it would stay for decades. Oil is currently around $50. I wonder which side of the bet Goldman Sachs overwhelmingly took?

In the name of sustaining perpetual growth over the past 100 years, we have already seen the dollar become 100 times less valuable. Who is to say that the dollar can't devalue itself another 100 times yet? The US, and the world, now has a president Donald Trump. He has filled his cabinet with Alpha Males, from corporate executives to four star generals. He wants to 'Make America Great Again'. That means spending a shit ton on infrastructure. Roads, bridges, 'the Wall', and of course upgrading the military (like the US needs an even more powerful military). Trump is going to get the capital from the financial institutions, at rock bottom interest rates. The Trump government is going to spunk billions, if not trillions into Main Street, with all the big contracts going to select US corporations, who are going to create jobs in the US. As all that base money starts to circulate around the real economy, in and out of the pockets of the man on the street, the opportunity will arise for actors within the economy to take on more and more debt and those trillions of QE M0, will start to be multiplied.

With interest rates hovering around record lows, with negative interest rates already in place across major financial jurisdictions across the globe, I suspect the fiat currency inflation 'bull market', is yet to pop. I suspect the parabolic move up is pending. Whether this results in a hyperinflationary crash, or whether everything is somehow held together and we just get used to the price of a good burger stabliising at around $250, who knows? Travel back 50 years and tell the average Joe how much a burger would cost in 2017, and he would be incredulous, yet here we are. It's all just numbers in a big hookey game.

Also worth noting is that Donald Trump is on record stating that low interest rates are great. Keeps the US economy propped up, and wipes out the value of US debt in the hands of foreign creditors. An example of hims stating as much will be easy to find on YouTube.

“With growth momentum nearing its peak and rates increasing further with a hawkish Fed, the asymmetry for equities is turning increasingly negative. This also means more vulnerability to potential shocks, e.g., from European politics, US policy, commodities and China. The increase in risk appetite in recent months and strong positioning by systematic investors such as CTAs and risk parity funds increases ‘vol of vol’ risk, i.e., the potential for a sharp correction.”
-Goldman Sachs, March 15th, 2017

Lol.

Yeah, they're actually admitting to the fact that equities prices are completely divorced from fundamentals, and couple that with higher rates, the stock market bubble will likely pop. What an f-ing joke.

When I first made that call, Bitcoin was $550.

Way way too early to be calling an end to the Bull Run just let, as much as you would like it to be the case.

Well, congrats to Mat for the MatTheMat reverse indicator working like a champ again.  A call for $1500 was made and now we're looking at a nice $1100 bear market.

That's a good thing. The less hands the bitcoins are concentrated on the less available on the market the higher the price. Basic supply and demand. We have been over this countless times literally years ago.

Which is pretty damn hard to accomplish when people like the Winklevoss and Roger Ver own so much of it.  They would become the richest people to ever walk the planet by virtue of doing...basically nothing.  The odds of occurring are probably higher than 0%, but not exactly large.  That's just the distribution side of the problem to deal with while also having the technical side.

That's a Mat argument. I bought all the way down from the peak 3 years ago, and kept buying. He laughed the whole while. He still is, in spite of the fact that I am sitting on roughly 200% profits and keep making money on the side thanks to the stash I have been accumulating.

The "rational thing" depends on your goals and your ability to predict the future. Mat wants to lose money so he can feel like a victim, and in that regard his actions are perfectly rational. You seem to have a lower risk tolerance than me, so selling more than I would makes sense. I want to make enough money on bitcoin to live on it for the rest of my life, and in light of that selling any appreciable amount beyond what I have planned to reach that end would be idiotic.

So I guess my question to you is, what kind of rationality are you talking about? The kind that is a product of personal emotions, or some objective standard?

10 people !   clearly you dont know binary bro  
1270 is 78.6% retracement of the recent irregular high to low and matches the more regular previous highs. Seems a fair place to mark significance in either holding as a ceiling or passing and establishing above for further gains.


https://youtu.be/gH10DQstVt4?t=190

No, there are 10 types of people, the ones who understand binary and those who don't. Try again without the stupidity. Or not, as you please.

With all that talk about being 'rational'; in light of all the economic uncertainty, negative interest rates, Brexit/EU, grossly overexpanded equities markets, bond bull market exhausted, etc, etc, I would have thought that you would realise that it is in everyone's interests to have a core position in precious metals.

Precious metals may turn out to be a 'meh' investment within anyone's idea of a reasonable time frame, or they may just save your fkn bacon. It is hard to think the unthinkable until the unthinkable happens, then it all just seems obvious. Trump wants to ramp the US economy at Main street level. All the base money that the banks need to hyperinflate the USD into infinity has already been created through years of QE. All that we are waiting on is the collective political will to open the floodgates. It will likely take a bit of a deflationary 'headfake' to kick things off by raising interest rates, thus crashing both the bonds and the equity markets, to provide both the economic opportunity of potential growth, and to incentive the institutions to start lending wholesale style once again.....but when it does....KABOOM!

Back when apple was around $100 (before the split) I moved my whole pension fund into a SIPP and went all in. Risky but...

As the price kept going up I kept taking some profits. At the time its the best thing to do in terms of lowering risk. Sure I would be sat on more now I'f id just left it there. A lot more

Same with bitcoin. I could be sat on millions, but I'm not because the rational thing to do in the face of outsized gains is to take profits. You can never explain why a decision made in the past was right in light of current events, because you can't know the future.

So in the case of both AAPL and BTC, with 100% hindsight it wasn't the right thing to do, but with the information I had at the time it was. I can't regret that.

So from that view I think roach was probably right to take profits. Whether or not they should have been put into metals is a different story

I think so, in fact I hold PM too, but a trend reversal would take ending the price fixing shenanigans, which is far from likely, given that even the major stackers of physical are taking advantage from it.

You posted a buy the dip chart, although the inflation adjusted numbers and chart scaling are completely bogus.

You would say?

All the vitriol, and yet you're basically not far off from many holders anyway.

There are two types of people in the world, those who think Bitcoin is somehow guaranteed to succeed (even at 4 TPS) and will become the world reserve currency, and those who believe it has a very slim chance of being the world reserve currency and also has a high chance of failure.  Even if you believe it's some type of amazing invention, the distribution is pretty much terrible with no way to force it onto other people when they can already use things like gold and silver which are superior stores of value and reducers of counter party risk in the first place.  

So I do mess with Bitcoin for gains and a hedge just in case of wider adoption, but I'm not some fool who believes it's guaranteed to succeed, especially with all the technical and scaling problems it has.  If bitcoin doesn't adopt some type of scaling solution, whether that's segwit or something else, it will probably start to hit a wall at $1-2 transactoin fees and fees are already up to like $0.60 now.

*sigh* no, what you chose for your own reasons is not "what any sane person would do". Explain why it was the right decision, especially in light of current price levels.