Topic: Losing faith - page 3. (Read 6749 times)

There are pros and cons to Bitcoin being a currency vs a commodity.
Not a very empowering attitude you're expressing.  Get into the
solution, brah.

According to you, "the statists won" because we might need an app
to follow the letter of the law ?   If its an issue, we will deal with it,
work around it, whatever... its certainly not a fatal flaw.

HEY THAT RHYMES   

It most certainly is an issue.

I never said they'd come after you for a cup of coffee.  That's a strawman.  They sure as hell will come after you for any large purchases like real estate or vehicles.  That's really not the point, though.  By the letter of the law, all Bitcoin transactions must be reported to the IRS, if you're a U.S. citizen.  Think about it.  A currency should not require an app to remain in compliance with tax code.  What you're failing to realize is that by that stroke of the pen, the IRS has relegated Bitcoin to be something other than a currency in the U.S.  In my opinion, this is the first thing that needs to be changed.  I doubt it will, ever.  It was a purely deliberate move to force regular users of Bitcoin to either throttle back on their Bitcoin use in order to remain compliant with tax code, or simply skirt the law.  Either way, the statists win.

its a non issue.  The IRS won't be coming after you for a cup of coffee.  trust me.
by the time bitcoin is widely adopted there will be user friendly apps to help track this
stuff...I'm sure some are being developed now and may even already exist.

Some people rode gold all the way down from $1800. Is it that hard to admit that some boats can be missed? I don't think this is a stretch of imagination. Does anyone here think gold will reach all time highs again? For example

It is human nature that the exchange rate can not sustain such a huge rise in such a short timee: Human are getting used to single or double digit percent increase in investment return. A large increase in price will scare most of the prudent investors and they will just wait for a better chance. And the high exchange rate make lots of early adopters to cash out their coin

More important, the user base and real world usage are expanding, but at a pace of 3-4x per year, that can not support a price increase of 100x in two years, so it will take some time until they find a balance

At the same time, mining hash power has expanded dramatically, but that mostly come from the technology shift, not from a cost perspective. To sustain an exchange rate increase of 100x, there should be 100x more cost spent on mining, that is not the case right now, most of the miners have so far increased their cost by one magnitude averagely

It is such a nonsensical statement. What is the intrinsic value of internet www or TCP/IP?
The ability to send money or other value eventually anywhere anytime for a small fee and have it confirmed in ~10 min has to be worth something.

Oh god. Pleeeeeasseee. This thread is full of the typical bull market sentiments.

"Oh, wall st isn't here yet"

"The big money is coming"

bla bla bla.

Hey!!! The value of bitcoin depends only on what other people think, not on any rational figure. Any rational intrinsic value is impossible to come up with. There is no way you can justify a long term investment in bitcoin, unless it's in a really small (as a % of your net worth) amount.

High risk, high reward! The value of bitcoin will fluctuate. Bull market arguments are bullshit!!!!!! Bear market arguments are bullshit!! Period!

If you want wealth stability and insurance, and a pleasant, relaxing worry-free existence, buy gold.

If you want high stakes, high volality, high reward and high stress buy bitcoin.

Ok probably Im a few months / years short of saying that, but clearly the value of bitcoin will continue to fluctuate wildly in both directions. In the words of the venerable, the master, the legend, our savior that is Alan Greenspan: “It has to have intrinsic value. You have to really stretch your imagination to infer what the intrinsic value of Bitcoin is. ”

Indeed, because it is a rule of nature that the past is a guarantee for the future right? In other words: Bitcoin grew tremendously in the past, so it MUST keep on growing in the future. If this really is the cornerstone of your belief in Bitcoin, or any stock in that regard that fits this profile, then you will be in for a sobering surprise at some point.

About my earlier comment about personal surroundings: this including what I pick up in the media over here (Western Europe), and Bitcoin just is not a topic in mainstream media, nor do I ever hear people talking about on the (financial) news. I don't read about it in newspapers, nor do I really read about it on sites not dedicated to Bitcoin. It is not unreasonable to say that Bitcoin is not alive under the people and the single time the mainstream media divert their attention towards it, it is because something bad happened again.

LOL... oh, okay then, you're right! OMG how could I have been so stupid?  

Of course, your own personal observations -- constituting a tiny, nay, miniscule, microscopic, beyond statistically insignificant sample size of actual data, MUST be more valuable and *correct* in the face of the massive irrefutable data evidence that's easily seen on the blockchain.info site's CHARTS alone.  Wow, man!  You're brilliant!  LOL.  Not.



Heh, you beat me to it with this post.  

I was gonna say the mere existence of this thread and it's several strident nay-saying posters = strongest evidence I've seen yet that "capitulation" is here.  

P.S. {Edit} Just for a bit more long-term viewpoint, i.e. larger data-sample size again, instead of looking at just the last year's BTC price alone here's a reminder of the log-scale BTC price from the very beginning, 4+ years...


Looks like a pretty good long-term investment, doesn't it?  Anyone see any real permanent "crash" in there anywhere? 

Yeah, no, didn't think so... LOL   

I am a big proponent of the idea of collecting all the trolls and losing faith complainy pants into this one single topic. Thanks OP!

These types of negative sentiment shows that the bottom is in. It may go lower some more but we are more likely to see more upwards movement than downwards.

700$ is twice the current price but we can get there in a short rally. The real potential is 10k$ or more within years.



Yes we agree, he didn't missed anything

^UR definitely overinvested, bro.  I've seen this sort of thing before--always ends in tears.

One thing nobody's mentioned in this thread yet -- a possible huge wild card in all of it -- regarding bitcoin's future value and the possibility of at least one more 10X spike happening someday soon, is the entry of Wall Street and large institutional investor money into this space.

So far, because bitcoin is not any kind of "regulated" asset or investment vehicle, the big-money players have been prohibited (by LAW) from getting into it, in any significant capacity.  (Note this doesn't mean they haven't been fooling around, maybe even "meddling" with it, in some "unofficial" or background, off-books, covert sort of way... which I totally believe is possible or even VERY likely).

The fact that Silicon Valley VC money has been pouring into the space, makes the entire "sales pitch" for these guys more and more palatable to their clients, vis-a-vis the idea that future USE of bitcoin & blockchain tech will be expanding into more & much EASIER TO USE products and services.

This, IMHO, is a fairly slow incremental process that's been going on all during the last year.

Ever since the Gox crash we've had almost ALL only GOOD news, all year!  Yet the BTC price has gone down, even while every other metric of measuring bitcoin (transactions, hash rate, wallets, difficulty, etc) has continued exponentially UP.

Bottom Line: a "story" is being developed here, for these big-money boyz, which could give these guys the wherewithal that they'll need to *finally* get into bitcoin in a big way.

IF/WHEN that happens... billions of $$$ pouring into the space, there is no other possible price reaction due to the FIXED SUPPLY of existing bitcoins than UP UP UP.

If that doesn't happen?  Well, then, yeah maybe we could remain *stuck* around $500 per BTC forever, of course, or we could even possibly see the entire "experiment" ultimately fail, and BTC price may then go to sub-$100 again.

But, ask yourself this: does anyone you know who's started to use bitcoin ever gone back to NOT using it, at all?

There are very few users already, of course: out of 100 people you ask on the street if they use bitcoin you'd be lucky to probably find ONE actual user.  But if you put 100 bitcoin users into a room and ask how many of 'em are NOT using it any more at all... I think the number there would be zero or very, very low.

This, alone, means adoption & use is still increasing... despite the price dropping.

And a growing market is NEVER something that Wall Street or Silicon Valley *EVER* leaves alone for very long.

Unfortunately, anybody who bought in above 7 or 8 hundred will forever be victim to one of histories biggest accidental trolls. Nothing will ever change that

Or simply have another sip.  Freshen your cup?

What are the bitcoin fundamentals right now ?  How much stuff is bought with bitcoin, and what is the bitcoin velocity ?
What is the fraction of, say, the gold market bitcoin is claiming right now ?

Honestly, if you look at all those fundamentals, bitcoin right now, without any speculative rise in the future, is largely over-priced.  I don't think that there's $ 20 billion worth of stuff is sold every year in bitcoin ($ 5 billion market cap, and velocity of 4, like USD), even on black markets, with  bitcoin.  I don't think that bitcoin took over 0.1% of the gold market.

These are the fundamentals that could justify a market cap of $ 5 billion.  

So most people are speculating on higher fundamentals in the future, which is why the price is so high as it is today.

That there have been speculative bubbles in the past, when there were not so many traders and exchanges, especially the bubble to $1200,- doesn't mean at all that the fundamentals in the near future justify such a price and certainly not the fundamentals today.  In fact, the bitcoin market doesn't even seem very liquid (in the sense that there are a lot of bitcoins with very low velocity, which haven't participated in the market often), which means that the current price actually only applies dynamically to a smaller fraction of the actual coins than those really existing.

So I am not surprised at all that the price is at the current level - I even think it is mainly speculative aiming for future fundamentals which are much higher than the actual fundamentals today (gold market, and merchand adoption).

I think that with all the trading going on now, there's no chance anymore to see these speculative bubbles as in the past.  I don't think people are going to fall again for a surge to more than $1000,- in a few weeks.  I don't think such prices are sustainable for the moment, and so everybody is going to expect a falling after such a potential surge - which means that the number of buyers at those high prices are not going to be able to sustain the price there, everybody expecting a lower price a few months later.  A market usually "sobers up" after a few burst bubbles, and I think that last year's bubble and the decline afterwards has sobered up more than one trader.

So the only movements I'm actually expecting are slow market movements following the speculation on the long-term fundamentals which are market share in the gold market, and merchand adoption, which can be higher or lower than current market price, and will subsequently have the market price evolve towards it, upward, or downward.