Yeah I was the one who guessed ATH same day (just hours before). I guessed it with exact time frame and you are right that I knew (with 80-90% certainty) that dump is coming for short period but I don't know how in the moment I took the risk without even giving it a thought. I am not a gambler I know how much self discipline and careful bankroll management it requires to build decent bank roll.
Well, I admire one thing, you used the word guessed, not predicted, as for the self-discipline you proved yourself wrong and it was all that it took one time, either you lost confidence in your own reasoning or you saw an opportunity that wasn't really there, at this point it makes little sense either crying over spilled milk or analyzing why the milk was spilled.
There are a few users here that are always telling people that a good trader is not one that makes huge profits in a bull market but the one that avoids losses in a bear season, it's the same about those urges to go on huge leverage, the ones who can keep their fingers from doing stupid things are better traders than the ones who manage 4 strikes in a row randomly.
But again just information is not enough you have to have realization.
And you need luck.
A lot of traders always avoid the discussion about luck because they want to portray themselves as being better than gamblers but in the end just one episode of bad luck like a stupid event happening just seconds after you took a break and that's all it was needed to destroy your trades.
Every traders and starters went through that, and I know that feeling myself. But in fact, such loses is really a win -- a win in such way that you've learned your lesson and you've somehow invested in having that kind of frustration in losing in trading.
That's sugarcoating BS, just like the experience of being evicted from your home and living 10 years on the streets will toughen you up.
A loss is a loss and no amount of knowledge learned will make that loss go away.