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Topic: Lost Bitcoins and how they affect market in a longterm? (Read 330 times)

full member
Activity: 588
Merit: 107
The more bitcoins are lost and could not be recovered by previous owners means lower supply and will increase the value of btc.
This is an old article but 4 million btc have been lost -> http://fortune.com/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/

hero member
Activity: 2030
Merit: 777
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But all energy and efforts to generate these BTC are for nothing to?
Is there any word of the devs about this?
Do you think someday devs will discuss about?
Probably the energy used to mine these btcs were too little, as most lost bitcoins were lost on the first years, when they weren't so valuable, then people didn't care too much about their coins. Actually, nobody is worried about these lost bitcoins, because it will be good for btc price on long run, as scarcity helps the currency demand to increase, furthermore there isn't what to discuss about it, what is lost is lost.

It's like a lost private property: if someone else tries to find or claim it, he will be invading something that doesn't belong to him, that would dirty bitcoin proposal and concept.
hero member
Activity: 2982
Merit: 678
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But all energy and efforts to generate these BTC are for nothing to?
No, it's a lost for the ones who owned but it's a gain for most.

Is there any word of the devs about this?
How about burned? just like the term that ICOs used before.

Do you think someday devs will discuss about?
I don't think so, there's no way to retrieve those lost bitcoins as they're lost forever.
copper member
Activity: 2968
Merit: 574
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I'm trying to figure what's the effect of all lost coins in a longterm

I understand all lost BTC are in blockchain, they are not "lost", but people probably forgot them or lost the private keys to access
People only says it's good because of the scarcity, our "active" BTC will value more

But all energy and efforts to generate these BTC are for nothing to?
Is there any word of the devs about this?
Do you think someday devs will discuss about?
They are lost (not lost but can not be accessed) forever. That is it. No change should be bought. Let it be like that. How would you different coins that has been lost with those coins that are stored by people for a very very long term? It creates scarcity which is actually good. All energy and efforts to generate those BTC were not a waste. Those effort can be compensated by the increase of the value due to scarcity being created.
jr. member
Activity: 300
Merit: 5
That's why it could be quite important to have cyber security firms like ciphertrace to help track down these lost bitcoins....

Definitely affects the market as a whole not only the value but adoption. People don't trust in the system
hero member
Activity: 2198
Merit: 847
I'm trying to figure what's the effect of all lost coins in a longterm

I understand all lost BTC are in blockchain, they are not "lost", but people probably forgot them or lost the private keys to access
People only says it's good because of the scarcity, our "active" BTC will value more

But all energy and efforts to generate these BTC are for nothing to?
Is there any word of the devs about this?
Do you think someday devs will discuss about?
At first there was little energy/affort for generating bitcoin, all of these changed after long term so I think yeah, lost bitcoins will give more value to active ones.
Despite the fact that they are in Blockchain, they are lost like a lot of people who are in our memory but are gone. So this lost numbers of bitcoins still can affect pricr at some point but in overall, they are lost, aren't part of active coins and price fully comes on active ones.
full member
Activity: 352
Merit: 100
They effectively reduce the total availble supply of bitcoins in the world thus making each remaining bitcoin in theory. As what we perceive, rarity is almost always tied with value, so less available bitcoins = higher value per bitcoin remaining. We might not see the effects of such yet in the market knowing that we still have 4 or so million bitcoins left to mine and will take the next 120 yrs to mine them. Also, bitcoin is still heavily effected by speculation, and perhaps will continue to do so until such time that its value goes through the roof that people would just keep it rather than risk losing it in trades.

Yes, they do. More than 4 millions of Bitcoin were lost! Just imagine this fantastic sum! In the future, Bitcoins will be lost as well, however, this indicator will decrease significantly, since their current value surely motivates people to be more attentive to their crypto.
member
Activity: 476
Merit: 88
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That is, until and unless quantum computers begin threatening Bitcoin's signature algorithm in the next decade or two. Once that happens, any lost bitcoins held on exposed public keys (like most of the Satoshi coins) or reused addresses are at risk of being stolen and recirculated into the supply.
 

If quantum can become capable to be used for breaking algorithm, there is a very high chance it can be used for security purposes. But in general, during websummit we had a chance to ask people from IBM quantum computer department and they claimed that they are years from getting enough computing power capable for that.
sr. member
Activity: 819
Merit: 251
Well, I still didn't see anything on the bitcoin news that devs are discussing it because in my opinion there is no bad effect on the market and it has a good effect on the market right? Lost BTC's are also contributing on the current value it is simply because they are not burnt.
If happen that bitcoin really reach its maximum supply sold for sure the lost BTC's will surely discuss by devs.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1196
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I'm trying to figure what's the effect of all lost coins in a longterm

I understand all lost BTC are in blockchain, they are not "lost", but people probably forgot them or lost the private keys to access
People only says it's good because of the scarcity, our "active" BTC will value more

It's effectively burning bitcoins and removing them from the supply. Assuming demand remains equal, less supply means higher prices.

That is, until and unless quantum computers begin threatening Bitcoin's signature algorithm in the next decade or two. Once that happens, any lost bitcoins held on exposed public keys (like most of the Satoshi coins) or reused addresses are at risk of being stolen and recirculated into the supply.

But all energy and efforts to generate these BTC are for nothing to?
Is there any word of the devs about this?
Do you think someday devs will discuss about?

Ideas have been floated before, such as forks where the Satoshi coins are recirculated. They've never gained much traction, though, and I doubt we'll ever see that happen in Bitcoin.
full member
Activity: 1092
Merit: 117
Estimates for lost bitcoin is in the millions but it is impossible to get an exact amount.  Just because coins haven't moved in 5+ years doesn't mean they are lost either , they are just really strong holders. Smiley
It's very unlikely for someone to keep their coins in the same place for 5+ years without doing absolutely any move. Even if you don't sell your Bitcoin throughout all this time you do make some transactions,maybe you change your hardware wallet to a safer one because technology evolves in 5 years and then you have to move the coins. Anyway,I don't think the estimated number of lost bitcoin is very correct because there's just no way you can know for sure if a bitcoin is lost or not. You cant just go by predictions.
hero member
Activity: 2800
Merit: 595
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Lost and forgotten privatekeys are considered lost in the sea. Unless they found a way to bruteforce those wallet to  open. But that would mean  Satoshi's wallet may also be  unsafe. So before anyone else wallet is forcibly accessed, I guess the price of BTC will take a nosedive down to $1.

Whether the dev team will discuss abut it, i think its going to be make wallets more secure.
hero member
Activity: 1120
Merit: 554
Estimates for lost bitcoin is in the millions but it is impossible to get an exact amount.  Just because coins haven't moved in 5+ years doesn't mean they are lost either , they are just really strong holders. Smiley
hero member
Activity: 1064
Merit: 505
Those are already priced in, I'm fairly sure, the only thing that truly can and will affect the market long term is the halving and future ones, of course lost bitcoins should affect it too but we don't really know how many lost bitcoins are there and we can never be sure, even satoshi's coins could be resurrected by himself or even someone else so they are never really truly lost.
legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 10758
There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain
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This is the part where "being your own bank" on BTC needs to be read alongside a fine print which should state "you are responsible for the security of the assets you are banking". Managing your BTC (or other cryptos) is not yet as easy as it should be, and there are is no fall-back third-party safety net when you home bank your crypto assets. The only safety net available is the one you setup (wallet type, seed backup, precaution and wariness of links/sites you come across, non-gullability, and so forth).

The watch only mode wallet should be accessible for it’s owner for TXs if he preserves the private keys. I’m not sure whether the email case you indicate is tied to an exchange. In any case, support may offer an alternative (often cumbersome) means to regain control of the account.
copper member
Activity: 448
Merit: 3
I don't know how technology is going to improve in the future, a friend has 3BTC on his wallet and it's on watch only mode., I don't know how he got to be in such state. Another of my friend who earlier participated in a ponzi scheme before knowing that btc was not to be use for HYIP or PONZI has 0.7BTC in his wallet and can't even remember the email he used in opening the account. I hope technology give an option of clue in the future.
legendary
Activity: 3668
Merit: 6382
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For most "lost" Bitcoins nobody knows they are indeed inaccessible or not. Bitcoins not moved in the last 5-8 years are not necessarily lost (some may be hardcore HODLers).
And maybe some day some super lucky Bitcoiner gets access to such an address from pure luck. I know how small are the chances though  Wink
Until then, as said: they contribute to the scarcity i.e. to higher price.
legendary
Activity: 2982
Merit: 2681
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Satoshi Nakamoto already answers this question some years ago, and i would like to quote him.

“Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.”

So, lost coins is a good thing only if they were not your coins  Grin
full member
Activity: 1092
Merit: 117
There are still a lot of bitcoins to be mined and as long as bitcoin mining will be available people are not going to care that much about the lost bitcoins. So far I've never seen any serious discussion regarding this matter and I've noticed pretty much no one cares about it right now. As for the future I don't see anything that could be wrong if we have a lower supply. Bitcoin is growing,more people are going to want to buy and the lower the supply will be the higher it's value will go.
legendary
Activity: 2226
Merit: 1304
This stat shows what some source has estimated BTC distribution in terms of liquidity, which gives us an insight to the question mentioned by the OP:


source: Bitcoin Investors and Speculators Hold Their Positions over the Summer. The article date back to September 2018, but should still remain rather much valid.

The relevant part is the estimate of the stat is that Lost and Unmined add up to 36% of all BTCs. If the above categorization is anywhere near being true (the above referenced article depicts their methodology of chain-analysis clustering if anyone wants to go in further), then we should have:


That is, over 4 million “lost” (or really unmoved for a long time) BTC – 20,47% of the potential max. of 21 million BTC (yet to be reached). That acts as a virtual "burn of BTC", which should have contributed to it’s price, on the expectancy of less available supply (lest some should rise from the dead and kick us in the ass by means of a large dump of lost BTCs at some point).


Thanks for good post
For me, it's a huge number of "lost" BTC, I expect less BTC lost
I think, and it's not based on research, that the most people who lost access to BTC are the ones who gained or mined in the very beginning

I know some friends who mined for a couple of days, or gained BTC in some random sites and they stoped, deleted the wallets and their private keys because they didn't believe BTC is going to worth so much
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