Low Interest Rates Impact Bitcoin's Next Halving Price Surge?

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Quote from: justdimin on August 23, 2023, 09:42:34 AM

Quote from: YOSHIE on August 22, 2023, 10:52:34 AM

Indeed interest rates are always associated with investment, of course the two have something to do with each other, low interest rates can make investors busy choosing to invest, hoping to get big profits.

Of course interest rates can affect investment, if you look at it from the side, as below.

I agree, interest rates are not the only reason but it is also not nothing anyhow, its going to matter. We could see it change and in order for us to see it change, we need to first see the halving. Without living at least 1+ year of halving, we can't say if interest rates will have any impact on it or not, we could make assumptions but we can't exactly know what's going to happen, and we should reach to a point where its a lot better and we can do a lot better with it as well.

This is of course a situation that will take some time, but it is still possible and it could make it worthwhile as well. Live to see it is the greatest result checker, because it already happened in that moment and you get to see if it was true.

I agree that it is not nothing but also it is not as important as people make it seem like. I mean every time there is a FED call about the interest rates, bitcoin reacts to it so giantly that you would think that it matters the most out of anything. It's not, it is not as important as people think and yet for some reason those same people end up using it like crazy. I get that it will not be simple but you should not be really forgetting how important it is as well.

I think it should be important on the long run. I get that we are not going to end up with a bad result one way or another, so we should not really trust FED interest rates and trade accordingly like all these people, just keep on buying as much as you can.

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Quote from: yhiaali3 on August 23, 2023, 12:32:07 PM

Personally, I do not see that interest rates had a significant impact in the past halving on the price of Bitcoin, at that time there was not much change in interest rates so there was not a significant impact.

The main reason for the high rise at that time was the acceleration of the adoption of Bitcoin by large institutions and the increase in demand dramatically. Do not expect that the price will rise as soon as halving, because even if the value of rewards decreases by half, the halving effect will only appear when the supply in the market decreases and demand increases, and this takes some time.

Therefore, I can say that even with an increase in interest rates, if there is a large demand for Bitcoin, the price will increase, and vice versa, that is, if the interest decreases and the demand decreases, the price of bitcoin will not increase.

The high adoption of the previous Halving that made Bitcoin increasingly known certainly supported Bitcoin to reach ATH. There will be many factors that can affect Bitcoin reaching ATH or not. The new interest rates implemented always put an emphasis on the price of Bitcoin, but that is only a temporary effect. We will see how Bitcoin will be, 2024 will be the year that everyone has been waiting for. It has the same effect or not depending on how the demand for Bitcoin and supply is getting less, this does take time and cannot be seen immediately.

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Personally, I do not see that interest rates had a significant impact in the past halving on the price of Bitcoin, at that time there was not much change in interest rates so there was not a significant impact.

The main reason for the high rise at that time was the acceleration of the adoption of Bitcoin by large institutions and the increase in demand dramatically. Do not expect that the price will rise as soon as halving, because even if the value of rewards decreases by half, the halving effect will only appear when the supply in the market decreases and demand increases, and this takes some time.

Therefore, I can say that even with an increase in interest rates, if there is a large demand for Bitcoin, the price will increase, and vice versa, that is, if the interest decreases and the demand decreases, the price of bitcoin will not increase.

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Quote from: YOSHIE on August 22, 2023, 10:52:34 AM

Quote from: cafter on August 15, 2023, 08:43:24 AM

Can anyone explain how interest rates influenced the past halving's impact on bitcoin's price and whether this could challenge the expectations of a price increase in the next halving?

Indeed interest rates are always associated with investment, of course the two have something to do with each other, low interest rates can make investors busy choosing to invest, hoping to get big profits.

Of course interest rates can affect investment, if you look at it from the side, as below.

I agree, interest rates are not the only reason but it is also not nothing anyhow, its going to matter. We could see it change and in order for us to see it change, we need to first see the halving. Without living at least 1+ year of halving, we can't say if interest rates will have any impact on it or not, we could make assumptions but we can't exactly know what's going to happen, and we should reach to a point where its a lot better and we can do a lot better with it as well.

This is of course a situation that will take some time, but it is still possible and it could make it worthwhile as well. Live to see it is the greatest result checker, because it already happened in that moment and you get to see if it was true.

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Quote from: cafter on August 15, 2023, 08:43:24 AM

Can anyone explain how interest rates influenced the past halving's impact on bitcoin's price and whether this could challenge the expectations of a price increase in the next halving?

Indeed interest rates are always associated with investment, of course the two have something to do with each other, low interest rates can make investors busy choosing to invest, hoping to get big profits.

Of course interest rates can affect investment, if you look at it from the side, as below.

Quote

Fluctuating interest rates can have a large effect on capital markets, inflation, and the economy as a whole. This is why the influence of interest rates and investment is vital.

However, don't get me wrong in responding to the quote above, it applies to those who invest in foreign Paluta and fiat forms, it doesn't apply to the crypto market.

As a whole if you look at the various speculations that have occurred about Bitcoin halving, of course interest rates are not a reason to rise for the price of Bitcoin, there are other things that are speculated about the future halving, so interest rates are not the main basis for changes in Bitcoin prices, even if halvings occur.

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Most people predict the price of bitcoin from the previous years and some are close to their prediction, some failed and some were correct. And since the market is unpredictable the next halving is also like that. And now that the price of bitcoin is going down again the halving might begins late this year or second quarter of next, if it doesn't happen late this year then it will not occur early next year.

And from now till December this year is one of the opportunity or the best time to invest in bitcoin because after the halving we will start the bull. Though this coming halving and the bull is my first time in bitcoin cryptocurrency Ecosystem so I don't have too much to say for now. Let me see what will happen then I will also have enough things to say.

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Quote from: cafter on August 15, 2023, 08:43:24 AM

Could the next Bitcoin halving potentially result in a price increase that is different from previous patterns, where low interest rates were a key factor behind the price surge?
Some argue that because the last halving occurred during a time of very low interest rates, this dynamic might not repeat in the upcoming halving.
Can anyone explain how interest rates influenced the past halving's impact on bitcoin's price and whether this could challenge the expectations of a price increase in the next halving?

At present the increase in bitcoin is difficult to guess, many factors can affect the increase in bitcoin, halving day that occurs before success makes a significant increase in prices and our hopes will certainly happen again, many things can affect the increase, and in my opinion low interest rates can be a reason People divert the investment to Bitcoin so that the price surge occurs.

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Quote from: adaseb on August 15, 2023, 11:37:34 PM

You are partially right. Low interest rate environment lead to inflation and inflation lead to people buying assets and home prices, stocks and crypto accelerated in price.

So the opposite will be true. It’s more expensive to borrow money so people will buy less stuff and prices will decrease. However in speculation there can always be bull markets and bear markets, so we will see what 2024 will bring.

I think it was the opposite. I even search it and it seems I am right. It is said that low interest rate means more spending for the people or in other words, less inflation. If the value of the peoples money is huge, they can be able to buy or invest more but you are still right that there are still more people who invest during an inflation but it would be better if people don't wait for it to happen.

Another benefits of investing early is we can earn big income once the price rise more. Bull and Bear markets are already there. They are part of the market and they can come no matter what but I think outside events can affect if how big or small the value that they will provide.

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Quote from: stompix on August 18, 2023, 07:34:18 AM

Quote from: Baofeng on August 17, 2023, 04:31:07 PM

However, as far as bitcoin halving is concern, not sure if it will have a impact. Remember that the last halving we have, we are in the pandemic and yet throughout that bull run period, the price goes up despite the lockdown and the economy not moving at all during that time frame.

You've just said that lower rates would be good for the prices!
The last halving had these EFFRND:
November 2012 - 0.18
July 2016 - 0.39
May 2020 - 0.05

In all of Bitcoin's history, the previous high for effective rate was at 2.42, it's now 5.33%.
So it's highly improbable the next bull run will happen in an era of cheap money and low inflation!

Cheap money surely, but low inflation may not happen. We are still not where we want it to be and that means that we are still at a high inflation rate and that needs to go down a bit more. I understand that we need to reach to a point where it will take some time, and I think it should be considered a little different.

I get that we are going to have some trouble one way or another, but that doesn't mean that we are going to end up with anything good just yet, it should be a little different. I understand that it's a tough one, but it's going to be a little different in the end. Just realize that it's going to be something that will take some time to lower the inflation and be ready for it when it finally looks like recovering.

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Quote from: Baofeng on August 17, 2023, 04:31:07 PM

However, as far as bitcoin halving is concern, not sure if it will have a impact. Remember that the last halving we have, we are in the pandemic and yet throughout that bull run period, the price goes up despite the lockdown and the economy not moving at all during that time frame.

You've just said that lower rates would be good for the prices!
The last halving had these EFFRND:
November 2012 - 0.18
July 2016 - 0.39
May 2020 - 0.05

In all of Bitcoin's history, the previous high for effective rate was at 2.42, it's now 5.33%.
So it's highly improbable the next bull run will happen in an era of cheap money and low inflation!

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Quote from: cafter on August 15, 2023, 08:43:24 AM

Could the next Bitcoin halving potentially result in a price increase that is different from previous patterns, where low interest rates were a key factor behind the price surge?
Some argue that because the last halving occurred during a time of very low interest rates, this dynamic might not repeat in the upcoming halving.
Can anyone explain how interest rates influenced the past halving's impact on bitcoin's price and whether this could challenge the expectations of a price increase in the next halving?

I guess the simple explanation is that or as the way I understand it, if FEDs cut interest rates, it causes the price to go up and conversely, if they increased the interest rates, then the price will be affected negatively, thus it might go down.

However, as far as bitcoin halving is concern, not sure if it will have a impact. Remember that the last halving we have, we are in the pandemic and yet throughout that bull run period, the price goes up despite the lockdown and the economy not moving at all during that time frame. So for now, there could be events that might have a financial global effect, but if could not impact the next bull run, in my opinion.

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It is true that interest rates may be an influential player on the price movement at the present time, but whenever bitcoin prices begin to move forward, many variables will occur as the bullish market will bring more liquidity and therefore interest rates will not have an effect given that the price rise within 6-15 months.

What I really fear is the poor performance of stablecoins and CEXs such as Binance/Coinbase/USDT. If any big problem occurs to Binance/Coinbase/USDT, the upward trend will change and the Bitcoin cycle will be broken directly.
Or random investment in altcoins, which may result in factors such as FTX and LUNA, and thus a broken bitcoin price cycle.

Bitcoin's biggest enemy at the moment is stablecoins and altcoins

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Quote from: Oshosondy on August 16, 2023, 02:57:15 AM

Quote from: EarnOnVictor on August 16, 2023, 02:45:42 AM

We haven't seen the long term yet, we are only speculating, and if at all Bitcoin gives me a return by then which I know it would, I will rather appreciate it for my positive investment rather than a hedge for any inflation. The short-term experience I have had with Bitcoin in recent years proves that it could fall during inflation too. This is why it's important to manage our investment well with a prepared mind even if we plan to deal with it for 100 years.

The price of bitcoin should only be speculated if it is short term return that you are looking for. Bitcoin price is volatile. But if it is long term, bitcoin is an hedge against inflation and you can have it instead of having fiat in long term. There is no two reasons that some companies like Microstrategy are buying bitcoin, this is one of the reasons. If you buy bitcoin today, it would be a store of value if you keep it for four years or more.

I understand you quite well and I actually know all you explained as true and also own my Bitcoin for a long-term investment. I'm just telling you how I view my own investment with Bitcoin, it's just like every asset I purchased, they are owned for their ROI only irrespective of how long I keep them, and when they are positive, I win, inflation or not.

I don't have the mindset of pegging it against inflation but earning through it if possible and I will manage it accordingly based on prevailing conditions rather than having the total belief that it will perform against inflation.

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Quote from: EarnOnVictor on August 16, 2023, 02:45:42 AM

We haven't seen the long term yet, we are only speculating, and if at all Bitcoin gives me a return by then which I know it would, I will rather appreciate it for my positive investment rather than a hedge for any inflation. The short-term experience I have had with Bitcoin in recent years proves that it could fall during inflation too. This is why it's important to manage our investment well with a prepared mind even if we plan to deal with it for 100 years.

The price of bitcoin should only be speculated if it is short term return that you are looking for. Bitcoin price is volatile. But if it is long term, bitcoin is an hedge against inflation and you can have it instead of having fiat in long term. There is no two reasons that some companies like Microstrategy are buying bitcoin, this is one of the reasons. If you buy bitcoin today, it would be a store of value if you keep it for four years or more.

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Quote from: Oshosondy on August 15, 2023, 09:08:34 AM

In long term, there are links between inflation and bitcoin. This is the second reason we should not also have money in fiat but in bitcoin instead. The more we go in time, the more fiat are devalued.

We haven't seen the long term yet, we are only speculating, and if at all Bitcoin gives me a return by then which I know it would, I will rather appreciate it for my positive investment rather than a hedge for any inflation. The short-term experience I have had with Bitcoin in recent years proves that it could fall during inflation too. This is why it's important to manage our investment well with a prepared mind even if we plan to deal with it for 100 years.

Quote from: kro55 on August 15, 2023, 10:48:57 PM

Bitcoin is considered a better hedge against inflation than gold, why would you advise people to stop linking bitcoin and inflation? Inflation is also what causes us to abandon fiat money and look to bitcoin, so they are closely related and we cannot ignore that factor. Another thing, in the previous 3 halvings, bitcoin has never experienced any economic crisis or peak inflation. And with this could be a test of bitcoin's resistance to inflation, so it's worth looking forward to what's to come.

Thanks for your view, but that is mine, and I don't think am ready to follow the majority beliefs here. I analyze Bitcoin charts both offline and online many times a day and follow its reaction with economic data, so I didn't just jump to this conclusion. I don't also know the reason why you are comparing Bitcoin with gold because I never mentioned gold, they are not in the same asset category even though Bitcoin could give you more money when you own it. Gold is a risk-off asset, while Bitcoin is a risk-on asset based on its behaviour, so no reason to compare them.

Please, refer to the response I shared with Oshosondy for the rest to avoid repetition.

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Quote from: Oshosondy on August 15, 2023, 09:08:34 AM

Interest rate has no effect than fiat to devalue over time and bitcoin price will rise as the demand will increased some weeks to halving and the price will still increased many months after bitcoin halving.

And why do you think it will?
Just because there are fewer Bitcoin mined every day so the pace at which the supply increases is slower suddenly people will start buying?

I'm really curious about how everyone thinks this is an event set in stone, bitcoin will have its halving and the price will skyrocket, don't you think it's quite a simple thing in which you assume a lot of things based on just past events? The myth of Bitcoing now going below the previous ATH as busted, we had just three halvings out of which one was barely known to the entire world, so taking such a bold assumption on so little data is just taking a gamble.

I see everyone here being so serious, the halving is coming so the price must go up, it's like some cult of the second ~~halving~~ coming of Jesus forming. What if there is no interest in investment the next year? What if we face a recession and CB keeps raising the interest rate with less and more expensive money for risky investments?

Quote from: Oshosondy on August 15, 2023, 09:08:34 AM

Do not let anything or anyone to distract you if you want to invest in bitcoin, you have nothing to worry about and do not compare fiat with bitcoin.

Oh yeah, you do realize you sound like a snake oil seller right now, do you?

Quote from: Nwada001 on August 15, 2023, 04:12:58 PM

I don't think the next year's halving will have to depend on anything relating to a low interest rate before it can pull off a bull market, as it is already certain that the bull run is going to come, not exactly in the year of the halving but in the coming year after.

Yeah, money will rain out of the sky for sure directly in our pockets, nothing to worry.
It's certain!!!!

Quote from: kro55 on August 15, 2023, 10:48:57 PM

Bitcoin is considered a better hedge against inflation than gold, why would you advise people to stop linking bitcoin and inflation? Inflation is also what causes us to abandon fiat money and look to bitcoin, so they are closely related and we cannot ignore that factor.

Care to show me on this graph where is that relation you're talking about? Cuse it looks to me more like the opposite!

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Yes. This also one of the keys too and we have to know market participants are not just one item, there are many, especially when there is talk of a press release about changes to the interest rate index policy from the US Central Bank or The Federal Reserve (The Fed). For example, maybe interest rates need to be raised higher for a longer time and this is a blow for most of the world's financial market players and has the potential to suck up liquidity from the crypto market and make the price of Bitcoin and other coins corrected and the most interesting thing is that the Dollar always steps on the gas ahead of the speech by the Chair of the Fed, Jerome Powell.

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Its still going to be true this year the next and for a decade or more that Dollar and the vast majority of the worlds major currencies remain weak. Far too much supply can be forecast because the debt is already issued and will pay out and require renewal in future years. If you told me all of the G7 is running a fiscal surplus and so combined with interest rates raised we are likely to see stronger currency standards then yea thats something of note. We are about 40 years out from the times of Volcker and nothing is coming close to what he did to turn around the dollar devaluation back then, this is a blip.
There is no intention to end or equal inflation, only that it should be a slow burn of value. The ironic line I heard many years ago is inflation is more apparent when rates are rising, it was in reference to gold but same thing applies to all prices.

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You are partially right. Low interest rate environment lead to inflation and inflation lead to people buying assets and home prices, stocks and crypto accelerated in price.

So the opposite will be true. It’s more expensive to borrow money so people will buy less stuff and prices will decrease. However in speculation there can always be bull markets and bear markets, so we will see what 2024 will bring.

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Quote from: EarnOnVictor on August 15, 2023, 08:56:31 AM

With my practical knowledge of inflation and investments in assets like Bitcoin, I advise you to invest when there is a good and obvious reason for a bull run and be sure to let your technical chart confirms it on the higher timeframes before taking action.

Specifically, halving is a Bitcoin tradition that has had a track record of influencing Bitcoin in the past with no regard for the prevailing inflation (obvious reason). This same thing will most likely happen in the coming halving and even happen significantly more especially this time that people are more aware of the opportunity, and money will flow in. Bitcoin will spike higher within months irrespective of the status of inflation.

And like I always warn, people should stop making links between inflation and Bitcoin, they should rather view it as an asset and as an investment opportunity. In my own studies, Bitcoin and Inflation don't just relate proportionally as it could fall or rise during inflation. Just own your coin when we are in the bullish season, and you might also want to divest when we are in the bearish season.

Bitcoin is considered a better hedge against inflation than gold, why would you advise people to stop linking bitcoin and inflation? Inflation is also what causes us to abandon fiat money and look to bitcoin, so they are closely related and we cannot ignore that factor. Another thing, in the previous 3 halvings, bitcoin has never experienced any economic crisis or peak inflation. And with this could be a test of bitcoin's resistance to inflation, so it's worth looking forward to what's to come.

Topic: Low Interest Rates Impact Bitcoin's Next Halving Price Surge? (Read 291 times)