Do you think that when there are that many shorts, then the price is more likely to go up?
I have no real clue, except that I do understand the motive to push the price in the opposite direction to force those shorts into being called.
shorts are not at 1 year high, the 1 year high is 25,345 BTC August 1 2016 03:00
I was not really so worried about whether DaRude was technically correct, only whether there was some kind of significance in the quantity of change that he was witnessing... and whether that quantity of shorts would be some factor that would influence our insights concerning probabilities of the price moving in one direction or another.
I do understand that it means that a lot of folks are appearing to be betting that the price is going down - but it does not necessarily mean that they are correct - but it does mean that we have had a significant amount of time in a price range that may cause some folks to believe that prices are going to be going down - even though they may not be going down..
Also, if the price went up to $950 or $990, would many other those shorts either be forced closed and sure some folks may chose to close them early or they may have taken certain stop loss measures... even at prices lower than $950.
Ultimately, these matters can be a bit complicated, but still some folks may bet on shorter ranges without really appreciating that the price had been suppressed for about 2 years.. and we are likely still in a bull market and still in the process of rebounding from nearly two years of bear market.
Edit: I just noticed the August 1, 2016 date that you mentioned - and yeah, what a coincidence, one day before the supposed "hack"...