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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 17741. (Read 26609810 times)

hero member
Activity: 1011
Merit: 721
Decentralize everything
Slowly grinding upwards  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1016
There is a LOT of buy support over the last few days, much higher than normal.  Instead of 5, 10, or 20 blocks of coins being purchased, there's a steady stream of larger whale buys of 100 coins at a time.  This indicates one of three things:

1)  Someone is front running a Bitcoin ETF approval w/ insider trading

2)  Someone has no idea if the ETF will be approved but is buying just in case

3)  There were some insolvent Chinese exchanges that are now having to purchase at top dollar

I'd say number 3 seems like the probable answer. What do you think?


Edit. It could be all of them! 3 of 3
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
There is a LOT of buy support over the last few days, much higher than normal.  Instead of 5, 10, or 20 blocks of coins being purchased, there's a steady stream of larger whale buys of 100 coins at a time.  This indicates one of three things:

1)  Someone is front running a Bitcoin ETF approval w/ insider trading

2)  Someone has no idea if the ETF will be approved but is buying just in case

3)  There were some insolvent Chinese exchanges that are now having to purchase at top dollar
hero member
Activity: 658
Merit: 503
Bear with me
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
IMHO the real question after all the PBOC/China drama how many "real" coins are on those exchanges?
The timing can't be better:
1. First fake volumes (no idea how many coins they handled)
2. Fees got introduced (volume drop by 90%)
3. Withdrawal stops (sorry guys we have been faking our books but we can't fake the blockchain, we don't really have your coins)
4. Use your imagination

4. Bitcoin becomes world reserve currency  Grin Grin
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106
IMHO the real question after all the PBOC/China drama how many "real" coins are on those exchanges?
The timing can't be better:
1. First fake volumes (no idea how many coins they handled)
2. Fees got introduced (volume drop by 90%)
3. Withdrawal stops (sorry guys we have been faking our books but we can't fake the blockchain, we don't really have your coins)
4. Use your imagination


i get it know! PBoC wants the exchanges to pump the price! the exchanges went steaming ahead with no real bitcoins. PBoC caught them with their hands in the (empty) cookie jar. now they have 4 weeks time to actually GET THOSE coins, which means they need to buy them on exchanges. that is why we see the buying pressure all around the globe. on top of that they try to buy on their own exchanges, but of course they try to buy with a discount in their own shops...

moon ahead! /tinfoil hat off
legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 1422
IMHO the real question after all the PBOC/China drama how many "real" coins are on those exchanges?
The timing can't be better:
1. First fake volumes (no idea how many coins they handled)
2. Fees got introduced (volume drop by 90%)
3. Withdrawal stops (sorry guys we have been faking our books but we can't fake the blockchain, we don't really have your coins)
4. Use your imagination
legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1688
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
Take your pick...  hehe   Grin  I'm leaning "Red"

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9tpfjmvt/

Why's that? Because it time travels at that big dip around the midpoint in time?
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1318
Technical Analyst/Trader
Take your pick...  hehe   Grin  I'm leaning "Red"



Previous was 4h TF; This is a "Pulled Back View" of the Daily TF:

legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Since neither one of us are whales, we don't really know from personal experience but only from logic, and what other people say and from watching ourselves.

In that regards, it seems that frequently there can be mini-dumps to test support and also to stifle the upwards momentum (even if temporarily).  Sometimes, those tests of support take place several times before it becomse apparent that others are willing to follow dumping or that support is not really there.

Probably, we only know in the longer term if the dumped coins were a waste of time and had NO effect... sure if we shoot up to $1070 or higher, then we might be reasonably able to conclude that a dump in the lower 1030s was not effective.. but before that we cannot really know whether those kinds of short term apparently ineffective dumps are actually accomplishing something for the bear whales or other shorters

Of course there can always be other explanations for seemingly illogical behavior.

I've sometimes wondered about large market dumps or buys just before midnight UTC. Is it someone who has a vested interest in the "closing" price for the calendar day, perhaps miners or their OTC customers whose contract stipulates a price based on a particular exchange at midnight? Lose a little on a few hundred coins to earn back a much larger amount on thousands of coins? Is there tit-for-tat involved when we see such dumps followed by similar large buys to immediately bring the price right back up? Are some huge temporary walls there for that purpose?

As you said, neither of us are whales, so we can only speculate.


What you are saying make sense to me, even if it might not be occurring exactly as you speculate.

I have speculated about the same point in the past regarding how coins can be dumped on exchanges and then bought off exchanges... so that the buying back does not trigger the price as directly as the selling (kind of a way to continue to keep price a bit artificially low - yet would not necessarily require that the overall situation be profitable, only that it was an ongoing attempt to push prices down).  
legendary
Activity: 4200
Merit: 4887
You're never too old to think young.
Since neither one of us are whales, we don't really know from personal experience but only from logic, and what other people say and from watching ourselves.

In that regards, it seems that frequently there can be mini-dumps to test support and also to stifle the upwards momentum (even if temporarily).  Sometimes, those tests of support take place several times before it becomse apparent that others are willing to follow dumping or that support is not really there.

Probably, we only know in the longer term if the dumped coins were a waste of time and had NO effect... sure if we shoot up to $1070 or higher, then we might be reasonably able to conclude that a dump in the lower 1030s was not effective.. but before that we cannot really know whether those kinds of short term apparently ineffective dumps are actually accomplishing something for the bear whales or other shorters

Of course there can always be other explanations for seemingly illogical behavior.

I've sometimes wondered about large market dumps or buys just before midnight UTC. Is it someone who has a vested interest in the "closing" price for the calendar day, perhaps miners or their OTC customers whose contract stipulates a price based on a particular exchange at midnight? Lose a little on a few hundred coins to earn back a much larger amount on thousands of coins? Is there tit-for-tat involved when we see such dumps followed by similar large buys to immediately bring the price right back up? Are some huge temporary walls there for that purpose?

As you said, neither of us are whales, so we can only speculate.
sr. member
Activity: 704
Merit: 270
Why would this ETF be denied? I'd figure all the same old cronie tactics apply here. Everyone says "approve the ETF  and we accumulate before everything goes boom."
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
What a pathetic attempt to crash the price.

If it was someone who really just wanted to buy some fiat, they wouldn't have done a market sell with all that slippage.

It was obviously a failed manipulation attempt... or simply not thinking things through.

 Roll Eyes


Since neither one of us are whales, we don't really know from personal experience but only from logic, and what other people say and from watching ourselves.

In that regards, it seems that frequently there can be mini-dumps to test support and also to stifle the upwards momentum (even if temporarily).  Sometimes, those tests of support take place several times before it becomse apparent that others are willing to follow dumping or that support is not really there.

Probably, we only know in the longer term if the dumped coins were a waste of time and had NO effect... sure if we shoot up to $1070 or higher, then we might be reasonably able to conclude that a dump in the lower 1030s was not effective.. but before that we cannot really know whether those kinds of short term apparently ineffective dumps are actually accomplishing something for the bear whales or other shorters
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106
oh... the good old bitcoin all-or-nothing drama seems to be coming back! ETF3/11 here we go! skyrocket or epic dump. 21 days ahead. get the popcorn out.   
enjoy the show!  Wink
legendary
Activity: 3906
Merit: 6249
Decentralization Maximalist
chinese bitcoiners are waiting for up to 1 mo to transfer bitcoins out and presumably convert to $$ or euros on western exchanges.
In the mean time ETF is approved, which coincides with chinese coin release.
Therefore, chinese dump their bitcoins into the ETF-caused surge, thereby negating the magnidude of the surge greatly or even completely.
I would love this scenario as it would allow me to buy ETF on the cheap in my IRAs.

Possible, but I consider it improbable. The Chinese that would be enabled to extract the coins after the AML upgrades could also sell them for CNY now. The price on most Chinese exchanges is already approaching the western USD price, so the incentive to not sell now is only if they speculate on a price increase (e.g. because of the ETF). I think it's more probable they then will try to ride the ETF wave up to a possible new ATH and not dump earlier.

If the ETF gets not approved, these traders could dump and magnify the crash. So in every case I think this kind of traders will actually move up volatility and not down.
legendary
Activity: 4200
Merit: 4887
You're never too old to think young.
What a pathetic attempt to crash the price.

If it was someone who really just wanted to buy some fiat, they wouldn't have done a market sell with all that slippage.

It was obviously a failed manipulation attempt... or simply not thinking things through.

 Roll Eyes
newbie
Activity: 32
Merit: 0
hoooo someone is getting rid of his stash again... question is: how low will it go
No no. How high will it drop to.

I like your way of looking at things
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
hoooo someone is getting rid of his stash again... question is: how low will it go
No no. How high will it drop to.
newbie
Activity: 32
Merit: 0
hoooo someone is getting rid of his stash again... question is: how low will it go
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
Why is the quaterly futures lower than weekly and biweekly on okcoin, anybody know?
The longer you lend out your money, the less chance you will get them back?
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