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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31776. (Read 26608915 times)

full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
Listen I understand Bitcoin. I love the innovation and technology. I am not a super trader or a computer genius. I've never claimed to be. I am a regular guy. I know a lot of regular guys. What gets me down is the fact that we all knew a huge drop in price was coming because it's par for the course. What else gets me down is the fact that every time the "regular" people I know start talking about it again we crash and they can't get away from it fast enough.

Even my accountant said "well it would have been a good investment if you bought in 2011" maybe I need a new accountant but still someone as educated as he is should have some concept of why Bitcoin is a good investment and even he doesn't feel that way because of the swings.



I hear ya, ever feel like you're the only guy wearing a tin foil hat!?

Did you watch the Senate hearings? Those will make anyone feel good about where we're headed.

There's a link somewhere.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
HOLY FUCK, I am on the same side as rpietila?!

Either he truly has gone sane (he does seem far more reasonable nowadays) or I have made a grave miscalculation in seeing a high probability for the bubble blowoff to have happened. Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
@rpietila: Expecting below $500?

rpietila thinkings everyone will dump all their coins at once. bahahahaha


10K BTC can be sold off in a few days without effecting price all that much.

No body dump a large amount like that to "cash out"

Its a manipulating move. Here is the strategy, they want to cash out 15-20% of their 10k. They dump all 10k to trigger a bear market. Then buy back the 80-85% of their fund, turn the market over to bullish trend. Doing this increase both their fiat and btc holding.

This is why they are the market maker.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
@rpietila: Expecting below $500?

rpietila thinkings everyone will dump all their coins at once. bahahahaha


10K BTC can be sold off in a few days without effecting price all that much.
sr. member
Activity: 248
Merit: 252
Great, I just lost 0.53 BTC. Of course, the past two times I predicted what will happen and didn't act on it, it happened just as I predicted... but not when I put my money on it.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 587
Space Lord
@rpietila: Expecting below $500?
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
come on bears

DUMP YOUR COINS!!

pretty sure they ran out,


if you have not bought back in, bye bye train says

ch000 ch000 m0ther f0k0rz!!!

This kind of posts remind me of the return-to-normal stage in the classical bubble picture. I have given only 25% odds that we will rest here a few days and challenge the recent highs in short order. 75% that we will have a correction similar but milder than April.

I have also increased the odds that we are in a bubble correction to about 75%. That said, I expect the following things happen:

- Lowest recorded trade will be in $2XX range, bigger volume around $300.
- It will take only 3-6 months to regain the old highs.
- Volume will all the time be lower than in previous situations, there is no widespread panic or general capitulation

Two bubbles in 2013  Cheesy Who could have thought...

Beating the yesterday's intraday high (BS: $640, Gox: $750, BTCC: $1000) makes me increase the odds that this is just a weekly consolidation. Every day in declining trend erodes the new investor confidence and induces more and more sales from the earlier investor community.

A bull is a person who does not hold fiat.

A bear is a person who holds at least some fiat and wants to return to BTC.

As you can see, I am now a bear. But almost everybody else are bulls. What this means is that you do not have the means to influence price to the upside. Only we do. But we are very few. Also the newbies do. But will they really buy in this kind of situation?

Who owns the bitcoins? Large holders, forum activists, savers, traders and newbies. There are so many groups and so many in the groups that will contemplate selling after every passing hour. Volume is so low that even BTC10,000 dump is devastating. China is still 60% higher than a week ago, and just scoring the second negative day. (They don't give a squat about bitcoin, just want the profits.)

I think the intraday high should be just about reached now. Expect a vicious dump during the following 20 hours.
legendary
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
Yeah, I've seen it, I just meant the last couple frame before the repeat could have been cut to make the gif more stable, hehe. Even the gifs need stability in this market!  Tongue Grin
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 587
Space Lord
I want to say sorry to the suckers that got scared by my wall....

I did warn the noobs last night, didnt i?

Noobs.... Turn off your computer go to bed, wake up the next morning and thank me later.






 Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
I want to say sorry to the suckers that got scared by my wall....

I did warn the noobs last night, didnt i?

Noobs.... Turn off your computer go to bed, wake up the next morning and thank me later.




sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
come on bears

DUMP YOUR COINS!!

pretty sure they ran out,


if you have not bought back in, bye bye train says

ch000 ch000 m0ther f0k0rz!!!

Slightly bloodier for the ride but I'm back on board.

Keep it on the tracks this time.

I'm going to bed.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
Craaaaazy rollercoaster.

Don't forget to sell on the way up. Or the newbies cry after the next bubble pop.


the next bubble to pop is America
legendary
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
Too bad that gif pans down at the end, makes it harder to watch.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
I do not think that "risk management" strategies are sound for BTC. In my book the only way to go is the following:

Invest in BTC an amount you are ready to lose

Don't forget to realize some fiat profits, because unrealized profits = non-existent profits.

Practical example:

Somebody that invested in January this year has already a 50x unrealized profit. Wise thing in my book would be to sell at least 10% of the BTC, cashing in a healthy 5x profit on the initial investment, while keeping 90% of the BTC for the next cycle.

I'm using this strategy myself, with a clear exit plan I tend to follow strictly. I was lucky because I managed to reach x100 in the last run-up (BTC doubled 3 times in 4 weeks), but I would have cashed out even at x50.

Golden advice.

Thanks for helping me see this Rampion.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
Bitcoin - love & hate
Craaaaazy rollercoaster.

Don't forget to sell on the way up. Or the newbies cry after the next bubble pop.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
All aboard the bull-train again!
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME
China isn't buying it, apparently.

China is still selling...

Just watch the charts (24h).

Gox/Stamp up in the last few hours -> against the china trend

China looks more like 3000-3500 CNY.

It is so easy to sell in China. I started the selling program yesterday when I realized that the price had overshot:

- Open the account in BTC China
- After a few hours you get confirmation email
- You can fund your account instantly (no limit in funding)
- Selling works well and liquidity is good - today I have already bought 6.2M CNY  Grin

I managed to lose a trading password, needed for initiating transactions. They reseted it on the phone, doing overtime. The clerk spoke very good English. The KYC procedure is also reasonable. No trading fees. Why should I ever trade in the western snailexchange??

Oh yes. How to get back the profits? There is currently a healthy 24% arbitrage between Stamp and BTC China. If you sell now in China, you get $680 equivalent of CNY. When the premium evaporates (during the last 6 months, about half of the time premium has been about 0% and most of the time <10%), you buy back, transfer to Bitstamp, sell and pocket the money.

I don't see how China premium could not revert to <10% in the next 2 days.

Thats good to know! I might have to do that myself!
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