Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31738. | Bitcointalksearch.org
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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31738. (Read 26711158 times)

hero member
Activity: 625
Merit: 501
x
Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit.  Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.

Isn't the sigmoid curve an exponential at the start that falls behind with growth? Nowhere is an increase in the rate of increase to be seen in a sigmoid curve. The so called "vertical" phase is exponential-turned-linear on its way to saturation, but I might be wrong.

ditto +1 well put.

EDIT:  So the question becomes where are we on the innovator => laggard scale? I would think still in the innovator coming up to early adopter pdq.

This is exactly the sort of conversation and counterpoints I was hoping to see.  This isn't my expertise.

I think any attempt to compare Bitcoin to electricity, TV, etc must take the position that we are still very, very early in the adoption cycle.

What's interesting is the notion that there are at least two competing curves at work at once. I saw someone put an overlay of a sigmoid curve with another graph shape yesterday, but didn't see post-analysis or discussion of what that would be, or why it would be that way.  Maybe I just missed it.
full member
Activity: 202
Merit: 100

Yeah, but there's smaller risks in bitcoin than in lottery. All decision in life have risks, important thing is to try to learn them. Good way of not learning these risks is to obey some principle like "don't ever invest loaned money" and not thinking why?

Better to learn from the mistakes of others than your own.

Either way you always have to understand why if you want to learn.

And it's much harder to learn "why" from other people's mistakes - emotional distance often produces laughter or derision.  That's why I enjoy footage of people falling over Smiley
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit.  Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.

Isn't the sigmoid curve an exponential at the start that falls behind with growth? Nowhere is an increase in the rate of increase to be seen in a sigmoid curve. The so called "vertical" phase is exponential-turned-linear on its way to saturation, but I might be wrong.

ditto +1 well put.

EDIT:  So the question becomes where are we on the innovator => laggard scale? I would think still in the innovator coming up to early adopter pdq.
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1013
Only recently (from BitchicksHusband?) did I see someone mention a sigmoid curve...
People have been talking about sigmoid curves since 2010 at least. Haven't you seen this before?



The question is, what does your curve look like when adoption is following a sigmoid curve, and the value of the currency you're using as a reference is also collapsing exponentially?
hero member
Activity: 496
Merit: 500
Spanish Bitcoin trader
Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit.  Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.

Isn't the sigmoid curve an exponential at the start that falls behind with growth? Nowhere is an increase in the rate of increase to be seen in a sigmoid curve. The so called "vertical" phase is exponential-turned-linear on its way to saturation, but I might be wrong.
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 1727
He's flying a flag - if Branson doesn't get seriously involved with Bitcoin infrastructure within a year, I'll eat my feet.

QFT.
full member
Activity: 122
Merit: 100
Bitcoin is still in beta and brilliant eggheads are working on it and there's now a shitload of people with a vested ($$$) interest in making it happen. The scaling issues will certainly be solved.
hero member
Activity: 625
Merit: 501
x

When seen in a logarithmic chart, I always tought fitting it to sqrt(x) was much more appropriate. Maybe we could have some fitting-analysis?

Superficially, the argument is: is logarithmic growth sustainable in the long run? In the long run, no it is not, unless you can always create more of the good (i.e. fiat money). So that rules out Bitcoin.  But we've absolutely seen such growth over the span of several years.

The next layer was - well, new platforms, paradigms - they are capable of this logarithmic growth for many, many years (TV, telephone, internet).  Bitcoin, should it succeed, will fall into this category.

Now granted, the answer to this question won't matter for at least a few more years - we still have so much adoption to do...but at some point, the shape of the end of that curve will become very, very important.

Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit.  Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.

Only recently (from BitchicksHusband?) did I see someone mention a sigmoid curve...which seems to be a proper fit, both in terms of the rapid rate of acceleration on the early end, and the eventual, necessary levelling.

Wish I knew for sure. Right now, the answer doesn't change my plan - buckle up and hold on :-)
maz
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
As of now btc has higher evaluation on bitstamp (just a few $). Does it mean there's no more delay in gox fiat widthdrawals?
People who sold on Mt.Gox are still in denial and waiting for sub 500. I guess they underestimated Bitcoin again.

That will be back, it would be silly to presume otherwise.
full member
Activity: 202
Merit: 100

He's flying a flag - if Branson doesn't get seriously involved with Bitcoin infrastructure within a year, I'll eat my feet.  He's got a "nose" for new things, loves risk and he wants to go to the stars.  It's worth studying him well because he's the one European Entrepreneur I know of who could pull everything together.  Banking, Media, Retail..... Transport.



Choo Choo Motherfucker
full member
Activity: 160
Merit: 101
Whats all this about bitcoin not being a convenient payment method? Scan QR code, click send, whats more convenient?
It will be really convenient once hardware wallets with cameras (for scanning QR codes) and biometrics (to prevent theft) start appearing.
hero member
Activity: 841
Merit: 1000
As of now btc has higher evaluation on bitstamp (just a few $). Does it mean there's no more delay in gox fiat widthdrawals?
People who sold on Mt.Gox are still in denial and waiting for sub 500. I guess they underestimated Bitcoin again.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
Drunk Posts
Whats all this about bitcoin not being a convenient payment method? Scan QR code, click send, whats more convenient?
legendary
Activity: 2833
Merit: 1851
In order to dump coins one must have coins
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
As of now btc has higher evaluation on bitstamp (just a few $). Does it mean there's no more delay in gox fiat widthdrawals?
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1013
I've been trying to answer the question, "what would the S-curve representing a hyper-monetization event look like on a log scale?"

I'm starting to think it would retain its S shape in both the linear and logarithmic scales.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007


Hey there partner. We don't like your superexponential kind 'round here, y'know. Too many bad memories. *twitch*
hero member
Activity: 496
Merit: 500
Spanish Bitcoin trader

When seen in a logarithmic chart, I always tought fitting it to sqrt(x) was much more appropriate. Maybe we could have some fitting-analysis?
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
speculation is not just speculation. it buying and selling stuff, mostly US dollars but also chinese, and its happening because btc is very convenient for buying and selling stuff

Yeah, I don't buy it because actually, Bitcoin is the furthest thing from being a convenient payment rail.  Government fiat and debit cards are still much more convenient.  That may change in time.  As a speculative instrument, Bitcoin has proven it can raise money.  The rest, remains to be seen.
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