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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31735. (Read 26711245 times)

full member
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Merit: 100
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2373
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
hero member
Activity: 894
Merit: 501
Anybody know if there are any decent Charities that take Bitcoin yet for donations?  Like Greenpeace or WaterAid or Medecin sans frontiere or whatever?  I'd like to stick someone else's address in my sig.
E. Snowden maybe? Or Wikileaks?
But I would like to see more charities accepting btc, I mean it wouldn't be hard to implement and they could only win. Wrote to a few already but they don't want my btc, just my fiat.

https://bitme.com/donate

I wonder if it's well received, whether the red cross might start accepting if someone proposes it to them
full member
Activity: 202
Merit: 100

Ripple is based on trust. it will fail.

All transactions are based on trust.  Since mankind first began bartering.

They're based on Trust because Fear is the backstop.  All beasts are resource dependent and vulnerable - none of us are Gods. I'm agnostic about Ripple, but either I'm an imbecile or I just can't put together in my head how it actually works.  


It works on the theory that when that guy borrowed that tool, you actually get it back.

Tool lending?  That's just about the most stressful lending in the universe.
member
Activity: 104
Merit: 10
Pecunia non olet
In Belgium a popular stock magazine had a survey about bitcoin

Could you post the link or give the magazin name & date? Thx :>
newbie
Activity: 28
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Anybody know if there are any decent Charities that take Bitcoin yet for donations?  Like Greenpeace or WaterAid or Medecin sans frontiere or whatever?  I'd like to stick someone else's address in my sig.
E. Snowden maybe? Or Wikileaks?
But I would like to see more charities accepting btc, I mean it wouldn't be hard to implement and they could only win. Wrote to a few already but they don't want my btc, just my fiat.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106

The Internet Archive recently suffered from a fire. They take Bitcoins

http://archive.org/donate/
Lol, no matter what century we live in, archives still suffer from fires.  Cheesy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_patent_office_fire_of_1836

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Personnel_Records_Center_fire


in germany they just collapse.


former archive of the city of cologne.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000

Sorry if I wasn't clear. f(x) in my example is not e^x

f(x) = 1/(1+e^(-x))

If you raise this function to higher and higher powers, it will look more and more like a step function and have a super-exponential growth phase on a log-chart (in the limit, it will look like a step function on the log chart as well as the linear chart)
I am testing this in fooplot.com but it still looks exponential. A superexponential growth would look like a line curving upwards in the log-chart, and there is nothing like that, only straight lines, steeper with greater exponents, granted.

Just plotted it, I stand corrected!

For high enough powers, it will look like a step-function on a linear plot but a "corner" shape (i.e., exactly vertical and then exactly horizontal) on a log plot, my bad!

So yes, it will never look super-exponential. Sorry!

If I could say one thing in my defense though, if you modify f(x) slightly by adding a constant epislon (a teency weency "intrinsic value", say epsilon = 0.001), then it looks like a step function on both the linear and log plots for very high powers.

f(x) = 1/(1+e^(-x))^n + epislon

where n -> infinity
newbie
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In Belgium a popular stock magazine had a survey about bitcoin, I will post the google translate version here (not perfect, but guess it brings the message across):

I want to the results of the "Bitcoin survey" with you. I received 7,832 responses.

Really cool that everyone participated. Flocking here

The results then.

The first question.

Bitcoin is ...

A bubbler (32%)
Considerable promise and potential is huge (25%)
Totally unintelligible (43%)

The important lesson here is that most investors still do not know what to think. It is still elusive. To new and unknown, so to speak.

Next question.

Have you already bought Bitcoins?

Yes (5%)
No, I'm not going to (55%)
No, but I consider it (40%)

Only a small group of investors have already done something. And 5% who actually gives a wrong impression. A large part of those investors Macro Trends subscribers.

Ask the same question elsewhere and are no more than 2% -3%.

The group that is considering buying Bitcoins is quite large.

What these people holds today, is knowledge.

Been there, done that.


Keep in mind that this is for people that already invest in stocks, still only 5% actually invested in btc and probably 90% of them still for small amounts.
Just a sign that we are still (very) early adopters imo.
maz
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$34.8 million now on the Gox order book. This is up from around $13 million at the start of October.

I understand continuing to use Gox as I've been using them since the very beginning, but I certainly wouldn't be sending them additional $ if I wanted to buy BTC in the last few months.

Is this perhaps USD that was always there, but not on the order book? Or are folks really sending new $ there? Perhaps the Second Market guys? Other large investors? I could see them not going to Bitstamp due the lack of liquidity. I still believe (no evidence) that Gox has private deals with large players for USD withdrawals. But they can't risk opening up that faucet to everyone and having it turned off until their issues with the US Gov and CoinLab are addressed.

One word: Volume.

Despite gox's problem, they have the highest volume and the most amount of experience handling the most amount of money. You could probably trust bitstamp with that much money, but good luck buying a million dollars without radically changing the price and losing to slippage.

Gox has problems, but they always sort them out- supposidly the larger you are a client, the faster they sort things out too. :-)  

Agreed. There are a lot of old traders and early adopter coins there. Despite their issues, they were first in the game and have the most market depth to purchase/trade large amounts of coins. I would not be surprised at all to hear they have private deals with big investors.

The biggest factor for using gox with me is the trust issue. Not that I trust they wont be shit at exchanging, but I semi-trust they are in this for the long run and they are established. My biggest fear is whilst leaving my coins/fiat on an exchange they get seized by their local gov or they disappear with all users coins. This risk is real with BTCChina, as the Chinese government already did this with QQ's trading commodity, then there's Bitstamp, who's bank is based in Slovenia, they could easily do a 'Bitcoin-24' to their user's. Gox however has stood the test of time so-far. For which i can at least applaud them and have a sense of security in them.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000

Sorry if I wasn't clear. f(x) in my example is not e^x

f(x) = 1/(1+e^(-x))

If you raise this function to higher and higher powers, it will look more and more like a step function and have a super-exponential growth phase on a log-chart (in the limit, it will look like a step function on the log chart as well as the linear chart)
I am testing this in fooplot.com but it still looks exponential. A superexponential growth would look like a line curving upwards in the log-chart, and there is nothing like that, only straight lines, steeper with greater exponents, granted.

Just plotted it, I stand corrected!

For high enough powers, it will look like a step-function on a linear plot but a "corner" shape (i.e., exactly vertical and then exactly horizontal) on a log plot, my bad!

So yes, it will never look super-exponential. Sorry!
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2373
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k

An exponential function is an exactly straight line on a logarithmic plot - and if the rate slows, it will go from linear to horizontal.

However, an "S-shaped" adoption curve could be a sigmoid function raised to some arbitrary power. If f(x) is a sigmoid function, then f(x)^2 will look like a sigmoid with a steeper vertical, and f(x)^100 will look like a step function (going from 0 adoption to 100% adoption in one day). So, if the power is somewhere between 1 and 2, it will look super-exponential for some period on the log plot.

(e^x)^2 = e^x * e^x = e^(x+x) which is still a straight exponential (This also applies to raising to any abitrary power)

Sorry if I wasn't clear. f(x) in my example is not e^x

f(x) = 1/(1+e^(-x))

If you raise this function to higher and higher powers, it will look more and more like a step function and have a super-exponential growth phase on a log-chart (in the limit, it will look like a step function on the log chart as well as the linear chart)

OK. Gotcha. Though I'm not sure it's good to plot that directly on a log chart as the offsets are wrong for an adoption. Probably want the Gompertz function but I have no idea how that behaves on a log chart.

legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002

Sorry if I wasn't clear. f(x) in my example is not e^x

f(x) = 1/(1+e^(-x))

If you raise this function to higher and higher powers, it will look more and more like a step function and have a super-exponential growth phase on a log-chart (in the limit, it will look like a step function on the log chart as well as the linear chart)
I am testing this in fooplot.com but it still looks exponential. A superexponential growth would look like a line curving upwards in the log-chart, and there is nothing like that, only straight lines, steeper with greater exponents, granted.

I agree... the second derivative of ln(f(x)^n) is <= 0 for all x with n >= 0

I other words, the slope will never increase.
hero member
Activity: 496
Merit: 500
Spanish Bitcoin trader
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2373
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
Anybody know if there are any decent Charities that take Bitcoin yet for donations?  Like Greenpeace or WaterAid or Medecin sans frontiere or whatever?  I'd like to stick someone else's address in my sig.

The Internet Archive recently suffered from a fire. They take Bitcoins

http://archive.org/donate/
legendary
Activity: 3388
Merit: 4775
diamond-handed zealot


I think so

so we're looking for the next blowoff around 2200?
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
noob question: how come Stamp and Gox are on the same btc value now?

My guess is someone figured out how to arb between China/Gox/Stamp.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
$34.8 million now on the Gox order book. This is up from around $13 million at the start of October.

I understand continuing to use Gox as I've been using them since the very beginning, but I certainly wouldn't be sending them additional $ if I wanted to buy BTC in the last few months.

Is this perhaps USD that was always there, but not on the order book? Or are folks really sending new $ there? Perhaps the Second Market guys? Other large investors? I could see them not going to Bitstamp due the lack of liquidity. I still believe (no evidence) that Gox has private deals with large players for USD withdrawals. But they can't risk opening up that faucet to everyone and having it turned off until their issues with the US Gov and CoinLab are addressed.

One word: Volume.

Despite gox's problem, they have the highest volume and the most amount of experience handling the most amount of money. You could probably trust bitstamp with that much money, but good luck buying a million dollars without radically changing the price and losing to slippage.

Gox has problems, but they always sort them out- supposidly the larger you are a client, the faster they sort things out too. :-)  

Agreed. There are a lot of old traders and early adopter coins there. Despite their issues, they were first in the game and have the most market depth to purchase/trade large amounts of coins. I would not be surprised at all to hear they have private deals with big investors.
elg
full member
Activity: 151
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noob question: how come Stamp and Gox are on the same btc value now?
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