Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30880. (Read 26711612 times)

Die hard nay sayers say sub $200

The spread between china and stamp/Gox has been consistently big. Exchanging RMB for USD cheaply and efficiently its complicate for "foreign traders". In fact, on rpietilas post I politely asked him to explain how he managed to move fiat between western and China exchange. He answered that he didn't, his way of doing "arbitrage" was buying low on stamp, selling high on BTCChina, and then patiently waiting for the spread to go to 0 or near 0, to then buy the coins on China again and sell them on stamp.

I guess that anybody with half a brain understands that has nothing to do with arbitrage. Arbitrage needs to be quasi immediate and risk free by definition. The above process is not risk free at all: you need to bet on the spread going at 0 or near 0 (and you need to waste resources monitoring that), and what happens if in the meantime the price doubles? That you lost half of your coins, that's not arbitrage.

Don't believe what Reuters writes - they are clueless. Probably the "journalist" documented himself by reading Risto's delusional ramblings, or checking the BTC-E troll box. There is one hard cold fact that proves that arbitrages between exchanges is not possible: the spread is consistently high among ALL of them. When arbitrage is possible, the spread is zero - full stop.

BTC is here to stay. We all love money and exponential growth but sometimes we need a good dose of cold hard reality and that's what we're getting now. A month ago I couldn't believe 350$ let alone 500 or 1000. I see it as a rocket that has misfired and needs some time in the hangar being tweaked before the next launch. That's what we missed about April (I missed) that was a clear sign saying hey dont ignore me. I'm not going to throw in the towel because a bunch of Chinese punks did. Everyone has money in different countries, we don't need to be driven by a peoples with a government known for shady currency policy.

Do you have a trading plan for both scenarios up and down ? I do, if the price goes to half I will be flat on my profit to date with fiat on the side, if the price goes to 700 I'll be buying back in at a nice btc profit from my trades today.

Get yourself in a position where you're prepared for both scenarios. Don't listen to anyone on this site. Don't make moves over small 40$ swings stick to your plan for both cases.

The volatility provides you with many opportunities whatever the price.

499

Hard to guess since China is still asleep. Sub-500 for sure.

When they wake up and see the price on the non-Chinese exchanges the fun will really begin.

bout tree fiddy

I get that. I am talking about Chinese traders taking coins from BTCChina to dump on western exchanges. Is there any conceivable way to do this and cash out their fiat?

I figure such spreads are possible for small periods of time -- during times of very high volatility on BTCchina-- at the very least, until arbitrage traders closed them up. But I just don't know if it's even a possibility.

Anyone care to guess the bottom on this one?

Is there an obvious correlation? Could you elaborate as to what that correlation is? What similar/typical situations are we talking about?

This seems very anecdotal. I'm not sure I see the evidence.

Doesn't ask depth dropping make sense when asks are pulled to market sell? Does it make sense to keep your limit orders at $1500 on the book if you are willing/planning to dump them lower?

http://reuters.com/article/2013/12/11/us-china-bitcoin-idUKBRE9BA0B020131211

+  I really think Chinese are cashing out back to banks or any way they can to get back to fiat.  No doubt many have overseas accounts and are, getting it there before their gov. makes more new rules.  These sales are not money kept in exchanges imho,  it's money that is leaving the game for a while if not for good.  

from teh moon people!!!

I fail to see how...  we have 12 days to new year.  7 billion dollars (50%) wiped from the market cap in 12 days.  and it was still dropping before the latest news. The people in China investing are not kids with PC's and a few $$ they were real investors that could not give a shit about btc they just wanted to make money.  

I think it's doubtful we will see $650 anytime soon.  It's Christmas too, so some people will cash out a little for the festive season and new year.  

But if you think otherwise... tell me where you think the new investment will come from.

Yes. If arbitrage was possible we wouldn't have such spreads, the market would immediately take care of them. Arbitrage is risk free profit, if it's possible to have it you exploit it.

And btw, I respectfully proved how rpietila was not making "arbitrage" between China and Stamp, but he deleted all my posts.

The problem is that you cannot efficiently move fiat between exchanges.

It is useful because there is obviously a correlation between coins on and off the books, especially in similar situations, and the fact is there are no new coins for sale showing up whereas it has been typical of them to do so in a dramatic manner.

Are we sure about that?

I think he was trying to said that bitcoin wouldn't go above 650 til next year (2 weeks from now ).

Going to bed and hoping not to see something like $300/btc in 6 hours :<