The point is that we're already down 90% and the probability of going down further decreases exponentially as we go down. You're just falling victim to the gambler's fallacy right now.
Agreed. It's an absolute classic noob move but it's also 100% understandable. It's how regular human minds work.
Unfortunately the people you're trading against know this and do not have regular human minds.
I completely agree however, we must take into consideration that many people invested last year, with a buy in much greater than ours. They could already be at a loss or close to a loss, which puts them at a very different mind set to us who, would need a far greater drop in price to be in their position.
What you are describing is the inverse scenario that we are having right now. People buying into hype, selling into fear. Some people never learn this error in judgement, some take a few market cycles and wipeouts to learn it, some learn it before entering any market. But the fundamental principle remains, if you buy into hype and don't set aside some profits you'll probably get burnt. The same is true for selling in fear instead of buying and/or holding.
Ahhhhhhhh
Thank you millionaire, gentlemad and lfcbitcoin
I will hold this shit until it goes up. You are right.
Thanks
Of course, there are edge cases. Some assets will keep climbing for a very long time, others will go to zero. But that's where diversification and value analysis (should) come into play, not succumbing to human psychology.
Make sure you really understand this and don't fall for the trap of "omg why didn't I sell" if we go down further after the fact. The (mathematically) most sensible thing to do is to keep buying in small batches and decide on different price targets at which you will sell. This includes higher prices at which you take some partial profits, as well as a full stop at which you get out of the game entirely. I'm personally riding down to zero if I have to, but for others it might be more sensible to scrape.
Just be aware of how markets function and decide on your strategy
before you get into the game, and then take whatever you get without beating up yourself over it. Invest that energy in learning how to do better next time instead of FUDding/FOMOing out/in.