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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28751. (Read 26711568 times)

legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
I'm with TERA on this...there's lots of talk about 'new money' but where is it...its not on the order books!

That is an extremely short-term factor.  It can change in microseconds.

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...local Bitcoin sales are both energetic and volatile, but I can't see 'institutional' money being invested via those avenues.

Nor will it be invested via the exchanges we have today, unless they are substantially revised - too much cp risk.  Financials will buy OTC from whales and direct from miners if at all.  Corporates will buy only if they have suppliers who require it, which is pretty unlikely.  Transmission use will rise however, now that regulatory acceptance is established. 

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Interest in Bitcoin is definitely increasing but perhaps that interest is focused on the technology rather than the 'currency'.

And that is profoundly bullish for btc.  Btc derives all of its fundamental value from the use of the technology.  Exchanges can all go to hell and it won't matter.  Speculators don't matter.

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@aminorex -- I have no idea why you want to introduce the misuse of 'literally': pure obfuscation.

Precisely my point.  A dead language has the virtue of relatively fixed and coherent meaning.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1003
WePower.red
I'm with TERA on this...there's lots of talk about 'new money' but where is it...its not on the order books!

You will see it right after we leave the bottom... $700+. Noone who wants to buy it big won't wave with money for you.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
Is the bear market coming to an end finally ?

For BTC, probably not. But it seems that LTC is tearing itself away from depending on BTC's price, so I'll probably gamble there.
BTC is too bloated for available pumps to create a strong enough momentum, and it's too untrustworthy for bigger pumps to enter the game. I see that LTC will be the more suitable game to play for the time being. Smaller market cap. means more movement and the name hasn't been tainted with scandals that raise serious trust issues. This makes it interesting.

I'd say Doge is a much better bet than LTC long-term, in a few months and some more halvenings the selling pressure from the multi-pools will drop off. It's also a lot more fun!

Could be, but I don't quite understand how Doge marketing works, so I have distanced myself from speculating on Doge. And I don't like to do long-term predictions either. Weeks or couple of months is enough for me. For the near future, LTC seems the most interesting.
sr. member
Activity: 546
Merit: 250
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Moderator
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
Wake up Stamp?
Why? Is it supposed to follow Huobi's fake volume?
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Is the bear market coming to an end finally ?

For BTC, probably not. But it seems that LTC is tearing itself away from depending on BTC's price, so I'll probably gamble there.
BTC is too bloated for available pumps to create a strong enough momentum, and it's too untrustworthy for bigger pumps to enter the game. I see that LTC will be the more suitable game to play for the time being. Smaller market cap. means more movement and the name hasn't been tainted with scandals that raise serious trust issues. This makes it interesting.

I'd say Doge is a much better bet than LTC long-term, in a few months and some more halvenings the selling pressure from the multi-pools will drop off. It's also a lot more fun!
sr. member
Activity: 546
Merit: 250
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
Is the bear market coming to an end finally ?

For BTC, probably not. But it seems that LTC is tearing itself away from depending on BTC's price, so I'll probably gamble there.
BTC is too bloated for available pumps to create a strong enough momentum, and it's too untrustworthy for bigger pumps to enter the game. I see that LTC will be the more suitable game to play for the time being. Smaller market cap. means more movement and the name hasn't been tainted with scandals that raise serious trust issues. This makes it interesting.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968
I'm with TERA on this...there's lots of talk about 'new money' but where is it...its not on the order books!

The bid sum on Stamp remains anaemic, China is losing interest -- the only bright spot is that (from the charts at least) local Bitcoin sales are both energetic and volatile, but I can't see 'institutional' money being invested via those avenues.

Interest in Bitcoin is definitely increasing but perhaps that interest is focused on the technology rather than the 'currency'.

Like everyone here I'd love to see more pictures of trains and moon-landings, but until the order books pick up it ain't gonna happen.

@aminorex -- I have no idea why you want to introduce the misuse of 'literally': pure obfuscation.
sr. member
Activity: 644
Merit: 250
Is the bear market coming to an end finally ?
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
Macro risk is almost uniformly bullish for btc.  The one possible exception being severe global deflation, and for that we have helicopters.  Given that the worst case scenario implies a policy response of massive fiat inflation, I am very comfortable.

At current adoption levels any bad news is more likely to advance new adoptions than retard them.  Buyers were exhausted in December/January. Therefore, low volume and low volatility today are due to seller exhaustion.  All fundamental factors are favorably rising with remarkable stability and continuity. 

Anything is possible.  But the outcome distribution today is more strongly biased to the upside than it has ever been before, and the more adversity that comes, the stronger that bias will be.  Price itself is becoming antifragile.  If Satoshi dumped a million coins on the market today, price would recover within two weeks. 

newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
Just as predicted.. LTC is interesting while BTC remains boring
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500


dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?
Y'all keep talking about a really long bear market. In 2011, it was 4 months top-to-bottom. Fast though time has gone by, we're almost there already. It doesn't get any worse than this.
The descent period may have only been 5 months, however the amount time of time before the next ATH was an entire 17 months, which is much longer than the typical 6 months. There were two subcycles just to recover to $6 and then to 12. So for example we might have two subcycles to recover to $500 and then to $800, with the next ATH being in the middle of 2015.
hero member
Activity: 496
Merit: 500
Spanish Bitcoin trader


dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?
Y'all keep talking about a really long bear market. In 2011, it was 4 months top-to-bottom. Fast though time has gone by, we're almost there already. It doesn't get any worse than this.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz

And here I thought you were just some silly dude who tried to ban twitter by blocking DNS, but I really like the way you put that.

I will now steal it for my signature. Thanks Erdogan Wink



Actually, "Virtual currency" is pretty correct for Bitcoin. There are no bitcoins, only the transfer of bitcoins.

How can you transfer something that does not exist? Makes no sense.


Well bitcoins dont exist..... essentially one doesnt receive or send bitcoins, one just changes their identity in the block chain. but we just use the term transfer because that's what it's like.

This is precisely why I like the term "cryptomoney". bitcoin has more in common with the stone money from the isle of yap than it does with what we would consider currency.

You may be correct that we don't actually transfer bitcoin, but rather we transfer proof of ownership of bitcoin.

see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rai_stones
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1000

dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?

Do you actually have to ask?  Ignore the chart and just think about it.  It is not as though mass psychology was the only factor.  At this point, any bearish breakdown must be faded.

Agreed. A prolongued bear market like in 2011 seems pretty unlikely to me. Not with all the new money flowing in the bulding of the bitcoin ecosystem. Adoption is still going up, the number of transactions rises exponentially. New bitcoin startups emerge on a weekly basis, the sentiment already seems quite optimistic to me. There is only one way, and that is up.
See July 2013 for reference.
What if your calculations about 'the new money coming in' are actually off, or the money going out outweighs this money coming in? What if there is something very wrong going on with bitcoin or with the world but it wasn't apparent to you and not public and not out on the news, especially not on this bull forum? Or what if bitcoin is simply 20x overvalued from its fundamental level due to massive pumping by mtgox and huobi over the past year?  If a major TA indicator as big as the 1W ema goes down, it is a hint that one of these might be true. TA helps you predict movements based on things that you don't yet understand. Read the chart, not the news.

This is my primary concern.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500

dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?

Do you actually have to ask?  Ignore the chart and just think about it.  It is not as though mass psychology was the only factor.  At this point, any bearish breakdown must be faded.

Agreed. A prolongued bear market like in 2011 seems pretty unlikely to me. Not with all the new money flowing in the bulding of the bitcoin ecosystem. Adoption is still going up, the number of transactions rises exponentially. New bitcoin startups emerge on a weekly basis, the sentiment already seems quite optimistic to me. There is only one way, and that is up.
See July 2013 for reference.
What if your calculations about 'the new money coming in' are actually off, or the money going out outweighs this money coming in? What if there is something very wrong going on with bitcoin or with the world but it wasn't apparent to you and not public and not out on the news, especially not on this bull forum? Or what if bitcoin is simply 20x overvalued from its fundamental level due to massive pumping by mtgox and china over the past year?  If a major TA indicator as big as the 1W ema goes down, it is a hint that one of these might be true. TA helps you predict movements based on things that you don't yet understand. Read the chart, not the news.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women

dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?

Do you actually have to ask?  Ignore the chart and just think about it.  It is not as though mass psychology was the only factor.  At this point, any bearish breakdown must be faded.

Agreed. A prolongued bear market like in 2011 seems pretty unlikely to me. Not with all the new money flowing in the bulding of the bitcoin ecosystem. Adoption is still going up, the number of transactions rises exponentially. New bitcoin startups emerge on a weekly basis, the sentiment already seems quite optimistic to me. There is only one way, and that is up.
See July 2013 for reference.

It's not that simple. The Chinese economy is on the knife edge of a major correction with bank runs, property market collapse, etc. We have a possible war brewing in Ukraine, tapering by the Fed, Ebola in Canada yada yada. I'm bullish, 95% BTC and going to go levered long if it drops below $570 again, but it's a risk. Shit happens.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100

dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?

Do you actually have to ask?  Ignore the chart and just think about it.  It is not as though mass psychology was the only factor.  At this point, any bearish breakdown must be faded.

Agreed. A prolongued bear market like in 2011 seems pretty unlikely to me. Not with all the new money flowing in the bulding of the bitcoin ecosystem. Adoption is still going up, the number of transactions rises exponentially. New bitcoin startups emerge on a weekly basis, the sentiment already seems quite optimistic to me. There is only one way, and that is up.
See July 2013 for reference.
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