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Topic: Bitcoin vs. Altcoins – projected Marketcap - page 2. (Read 969 times)

legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
November 09, 2022, 11:55:14 PM
#29
as it is BTC is now a POW / POS hybrid since LN has pulled some small change fees away from the miners.
Not really!
In PoS you are generally receiving a "reward" for having a balance that is printed out of thin air. In LN you receive a fee for processing the transaction that is paid by the sender not out of thin air. Not to mention that the amount of fees are too small that it is negligible.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 7340
Farewell, Leo
November 09, 2022, 02:03:49 PM
#28
None of us will understand what the ½ ing will do by 2052 until we make it to 2052.
It most likely won't do much, because the system must already be dependent on transaction fees by 2052.

If we move towards LN fees staying with LN and not going somewhat towards standard block fees we push BTC closer and closer to POS
Not at all. Proof-of-Work is a necessity for lightning to work. On-chain activity is also necessary, otherwise people will just utilize it due to empty mempools. For lightning to have effect, there have to be lots of on-chain transactions.

as it is BTC is now a POW / POS hybrid since LN has pulled some small change fees away from the miners
But over all, if you zoom out, you can see that it does benefit miners, because it benefits the users, and therefore the miners due to rise in demand.
sr. member
Activity: 1666
Merit: 310
November 09, 2022, 11:03:35 AM
#27
Yearly inflation is the most important part from damaging inflation. Huh The more inflation, the more dangerous. That's what I've explained above.
I meant inflation in general, not currency inflation schedule.

Of course, governance could change metrics like inflation if things are getting bad but there's no guarantee for that.
If there's no guarantee for that, at the same time there's guarantee that bitcoin won't change monetary policy, then it is a flawed comparison.

But instead it's even worse to rely on a few guys "managing" the Altcoins and especially in PoS coins, developers are owners of a large chunk of the premined coins as a "foundation" and it's giving them much power.
Great, so moral of the story: don't use altcoins.

People say this in every cycle and they even named it "downward spiral" at some point claiming that because the reward was cut half from 50 to 25 then bitcoin must die because miners no longer make any profit. Today the reward is 6.25 and miners are still making a lot of profit and the hashrate is unbelievably high compared to when they were making 8 times more bitcoins for each block.
Which doesn't necessarily mean it'll continue ad infinitum. It's more complicated than it seems, linking to: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/surprisingly-tail-emission-is-not-inflationary-a-post-by-peter-todd-5405755

None of us will understand what the ½ ing will do by 2052 until we make it to 2052.

but in order for mining to work in 2052 we need 819,000 a btc price unless we can figure out how to balance LN fees and standard block fees.

If we move towards LN fees staying with LN and not going somewhat towards standard block fees we push BTC closer and closer to POS

as it is BTC is now a POW / POS hybrid since LN has pulled some small change fees away from the miners.
819k USD by 2052 seems easy-peasy. We will hit 7 digits later this decade.

The dollar won't even exist by then though...
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
November 09, 2022, 10:50:14 AM
#26
Yearly inflation is the most important part from damaging inflation. Huh The more inflation, the more dangerous. That's what I've explained above.
I meant inflation in general, not currency inflation schedule.

Of course, governance could change metrics like inflation if things are getting bad but there's no guarantee for that.
If there's no guarantee for that, at the same time there's guarantee that bitcoin won't change monetary policy, then it is a flawed comparison.

But instead it's even worse to rely on a few guys "managing" the Altcoins and especially in PoS coins, developers are owners of a large chunk of the premined coins as a "foundation" and it's giving them much power.
Great, so moral of the story: don't use altcoins.

People say this in every cycle and they even named it "downward spiral" at some point claiming that because the reward was cut half from 50 to 25 then bitcoin must die because miners no longer make any profit. Today the reward is 6.25 and miners are still making a lot of profit and the hashrate is unbelievably high compared to when they were making 8 times more bitcoins for each block.
Which doesn't necessarily mean it'll continue ad infinitum. It's more complicated than it seems, linking to: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/surprisingly-tail-emission-is-not-inflationary-a-post-by-peter-todd-5405755

None of us will understand what the ½ ing will do by 2052 until we make it to 2052.

but in order for mining to work in 2052 we need 819,000 a btc price unless we can figure out how to balance LN fees and standard block fees.

If we move towards LN fees staying with LN and not going somewhat towards standard block fees we push BTC closer and closer to POS

as it is BTC is now a POW / POS hybrid since LN has pulled some small change fees away from the miners.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 7340
Farewell, Leo
November 09, 2022, 04:31:41 AM
#25
Yearly inflation is the most important part from damaging inflation. Huh The more inflation, the more dangerous. That's what I've explained above.
I meant inflation in general, not currency inflation schedule.

Of course, governance could change metrics like inflation if things are getting bad but there's no guarantee for that.
If there's no guarantee for that, at the same time there's guarantee that bitcoin won't change monetary policy, then it is a flawed comparison.

But instead it's even worse to rely on a few guys "managing" the Altcoins and especially in PoS coins, developers are owners of a large chunk of the premined coins as a "foundation" and it's giving them much power.
Great, so moral of the story: don't use altcoins.

People say this in every cycle and they even named it "downward spiral" at some point claiming that because the reward was cut half from 50 to 25 then bitcoin must die because miners no longer make any profit. Today the reward is 6.25 and miners are still making a lot of profit and the hashrate is unbelievably high compared to when they were making 8 times more bitcoins for each block.
Which doesn't necessarily mean it'll continue ad infinitum. It's more complicated than it seems, linking to: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/surprisingly-tail-emission-is-not-inflationary-a-post-by-peter-todd-5405755
legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 4085
Farewell o_e_l_e_o
November 09, 2022, 01:28:21 AM
#24
...
If anyone want to have more information, check Controlled supply and How is the 21 Million Bitcoin Cap Defined and Enforced?

People say this in every cycle and they even named it "downward spiral" at some point claiming that because the reward was cut half from 50 to 25 then bitcoin must die because miners no longer make any profit. Today the reward is 6.25 and miners are still making a lot of profit and the hashrate is unbelievably high compared to when they were making 8 times more bitcoins for each block.
The question was answered by satoshi years ago. satoshi predicted that there are two possible scenarios for Bitcoin and it seems we have a positive one because the Bitcoin network has become bigger (in total hashrate) and more decentralized (after the Great Hash Migration from China) as well as it has gotten more adoption (more use cases and higher trading volume).

Right.  Otherwise we couldn't have a finite limit of 21 million coins, because there would always need to be some minimum reward for generating.  In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes.  I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
November 08, 2022, 11:46:29 PM
#23
when you see these numbers btc may be in very serious trouble unless LN works and feeds enough fees back to the main chain.

no mining = no security or low security.
People say this in every cycle and they even named it "downward spiral" at some point claiming that because the reward was cut half from 50 to 25 then bitcoin must die because miners no longer make any profit. Today the reward is 6.25 and miners are still making a lot of profit and the hashrate is unbelievably high compared to when they were making 8 times more bitcoins for each block.
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
November 08, 2022, 11:21:57 PM
#22
Dudes and dudettes.

Not one word about Pow vs pos.

shameful.

all pos = piece of shit.

some pow may be good.

if you don’t believe this you are missing the entire basis of why btc was made pow.

hint pow can be decentralized and trustless.

pos can not be decentralized and trustless.

as to future value of btc because it shrinks maybe it works.

but look at doge in 2113

it is 100 years old.

and x coins were printed each and every years.

so 100 x coins
next year

101x which is a mere 1% inflation rate.  so there will always be an identical reward every year that does not vanish

but inflation  rate shrinks every year.

and btc in 2100 reward will almost have vanished with all the ½ ings

2024  = 3.125
2028 = 1.5625
2032 = 0.78125
2036 = 0.390625
2040 = 0.1953125
2044 = 0.09765625
2048 = 0.048828125
2052 = 0.0244140625. if it cost 20000 to mine a btc we need 819000 price  btc
2056 = 0.0122070313
2060 = 0.00610351565
2064 = 0.00305175783
2068 = 0.00152587892
2072 = 0.00076293946
2076 = 0.00038146973
2080 = 0.000190734865
2084 = 0.0000953674325
2088 = 0.0000476837163
2092 = 0.0000238418581
2096 = 0.000011920929
2100 = 0.0000059604645

when you see these numbers btc may be in very serious trouble unless LN works and feeds enough fees back to the main chain.

no mining = no security or low security.

look at btc and the 2100 lookout vs doge and the 2100 look out.

87x mintings by 2100 then 88x mintings seems to me that doges 2100 outlook is more stable and predictable than btcs 2100 outlook.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1860
November 08, 2022, 10:25:57 PM
#21
Isn't a fork some sort of "inflation" as well?
Technically no. Imagine you want to purchase something from a vendor that accepts bitcoin payments. You have no way of paying them using bsv simply because bsv is not bitcoin, ergo creating the copy did not cause inflation. They are just cheap useless ripoffs. Smiley
Technically, it's not affecting Bitcoin because it's a different coin.
So indeed, the bold part is important, leading us to:

That's why a Shitfork can't be scarce in my opinion. It's just a copy from the original. Only the Original can be scarce.

I don't seem to see the logic. In this case, being a copy or original doesn't have anything to do with scarcity. A copy could be as scarce as the original as the case of BCH and BSV shows. They all have 21 million in total supply. Please note that I'm just referring to the supply here, not their respective demand.

But this so because these coins we call copies aren't really literal copies. They're not literally counterfeit. They're different coins, as you've pointed out, hence BCH and BSV and not anymore BTC.

So, strictly speaking, they aren't inflation. We could have a million forks of BTC which are as scarce as BTC but they're not BTC anymore.
legendary
Activity: 2226
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Currently not much available - see my websitelink
November 08, 2022, 07:18:35 PM
#20
Isn't a fork some sort of "inflation" as well?
Technically no. Imagine you want to purchase something from a vendor that accepts bitcoin payments. You have no way of paying them using bsv simply because bsv is not bitcoin, ergo creating the copy did not cause inflation. They are just cheap useless ripoffs. Smiley
Technically, it's not affecting Bitcoin because it's a different coin.
So indeed, the bold part is important, leading us to:

That's why a Shitfork can't be scarce in my opinion. It's just a copy from the original. Only the Original can be scarce.



Sure, it's depending on which Altcoin we want to analyze. And there's also not only black and white because after all the amount of inflation per year matters.
I don't see how the inflation per year is relevant with this comparison.
Yearly inflation is the most important part from damaging inflation. Huh The more inflation, the more dangerous. That's what I've explained above.
We just need to look at Polkadot and the fact that in 2050, 12 times of Polkadot's current supply will exist. In 2050 roughly the same number of coins will be minted yearly as Polkadot's marketcap is today. It's like if there would be 20 million BTC printed in 2050 in a single year - every year! - and that number would even be increasing every year = exponential growth!
Maybe I can create a graph of it to visualize it somewhen later but numbers should be clear.
It's like Turkish Lira etc. where inflation is getting through the roof and nobody want to hold such an asset. Same for Altcoins and the yearly inflation is key here. Some inflationary DeFi Shitcoins have already collapsed.


I doubt you can get an even slight picture of a centralized-governed cryptocurrency in 25 years from now. Especially with a history full of centralized-governed cryptocurrencies that reached the bottom after a few hyped years, which brings me to my point again: a hyped, recently appreciated cryptocurrency doesn't mean it'll keep it going in the long run.
Of course, governance could change metrics like inflation if things are getting bad but there's no guarantee for that.


Fair elections where 1 person = 1 vote is extremely difficult to implement for Altcoin governance, at least currently.
That's why I'm of the opinion that there shouldn't be elections at all in the way a cryptocurrency works. Running your own node, writing code, mining the chain, using this forum etc., don't require democracy; and that's why bitcoin has not stopped working properly for over a decade now, against all odds.
But instead it's even worse to rely on a few guys "managing" the Altcoins and especially in PoS coins, developers are owners of a large chunk of the premined coins as a "foundation" and it's giving them much power.
I don't know if you have heard about IOTA but one of the reasons, IOTA has so many problems is because developers didn't agree how to proceed and they had some infights instead. This problem will be likely to catch most centralized Altcoins when big promises (from marketing) can't be kept.
legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 4085
Farewell o_e_l_e_o
November 08, 2022, 07:37:14 AM
#19
it also reminds me of Ethereum Classic. ethereum developers create new tokens for reasons of stronger security.
Ethereum and Ethereum Classic are not tokens. They are native currencies of Ethereum network and Ethereum Classic network.

Quote
altcoins are not very suitable for investment, especially long term, we will find a lot of drama going on there and it has happened over and over again in many projects.
Most of them are not good for investment because many of them will die in one bear market and mostly don't have their lifespan more than 4 year or a full market cycle.

If you say about Ethereum, BNB, Litecoin and Dogecoin, they are good to invest in but you should choose a good entry to join.

Quote
Bitcoin has never been changed or modified since it first appeared and that is what makes bitcoin so unique and special.
Are you sure about it?

If no upgrade, how do we have Bitcoin Segwit, Taproot (another type of Segwit) ?
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 7340
Farewell, Leo
November 08, 2022, 03:03:13 AM
#18
Sure, it's depending on which Altcoin we want to analyze. And there's also not only black and white because after all the amount of inflation per year matters.
I don't see how the inflation per year is relevant with this comparison.

I doubt you can get an even slight picture of a centralized-governed cryptocurrency in 25 years from now. Especially with a history full of centralized-governed cryptocurrencies that reached the bottom after a few hyped years, which brings me to my point again: a hyped, recently appreciated cryptocurrency doesn't mean it'll keep it going in the long run.

Fair elections where 1 person = 1 vote is extremely difficult to implement for Altcoin governance, at least currently.
That's why I'm of the opinion that there shouldn't be elections at all in the way a cryptocurrency works. Running your own node, writing code, mining the chain, using this forum etc., don't require democracy; and that's why bitcoin has not stopped working properly for over a decade now, against all odds.
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
November 08, 2022, 12:41:14 AM
#17
Isn't a fork some sort of "inflation" as well?
Technically no. Imagine you want to purchase something from a vendor that accepts bitcoin payments. You have no way of paying them using bsv simply because bsv is not bitcoin, ergo creating the copy did not cause inflation. They are just cheap useless ripoffs. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2226
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Currently not much available - see my websitelink
November 07, 2022, 07:48:35 PM
#16
Imagine you want to buy a stock (or better yet penny stock since they are more similar to altcoins). You don't really look at the market capitalization! Instead you check whether the company has anything valuable to offer.
Stocks and Altcoins are very difficult to compare in my opinion. Stocks are fundamentally different from Altcoins and most "guidelines" for stocks / traditional markets are difficult to apply for Altcoins. I've written about it previously: Is diversification into different coins really a good advice for Newbies?
Maybe it's because Altcoins are very different from Stocks because Stocks are backed by a company producing a real product, (most) Altcoins aren't. Altcoins are just offering the Altcoin itself. The Altcoin is their product.
But you are right, inflation is only one issue to rewiew. A good Altcoin needs much more than just being scarce. Of course, scarcity is a very important metric and even if all the other metrics are fine, deflation can make a coin very unattractive.


It's the same with cryptocurrencies. In this existing market we have at least 2 exact copies of bitcoin (bcash and bsv) that have the exact same market capitalization (circulating supply, etc.) as bitcoin. Nobody can call them "store of value" simply because they are useless.
Isn't a fork some sort of "inflation" as well?  Cheesy
Bitcoin can be forked as often as some self-proclaimed Satoshis want to.
That's why a Shitfork can't be scarce in my opinion. It's just a copy from the original. Only the Original can be scarce.



Sorry to say does it mean investing in altcoin presently dangerous?
I'm not giving any investment advice, just some input for people to apply when reviewing a coin but most (all?) Altcoins have much more risks compared to Bitcoin. Outlining all the risks would be too much here but inflation is one of the downsides of Altcoins. So, yes, I would say investing in Altcoins is risky (compared to Bitcoin).

What I saw from your analogy seems anyone investing in altcoin is at a very big risk, then secondly I know we learn everyday and all time so I can't say I knew it all. If it happens that I found an altcoin to invest, how do I determines the following processes which you have outlined?
Buying Altcoins might also give you high profits, no doubt. But it can also go the other way down and you'll end up with some useless Shitcoins.
We just need to compare some top 20 Altcoins from 2017 / 2018 and where they are now: some aren't even relevant anymore = huge loss.
You can be lucky or not.  Tongue

There are also differences between Altcoins. Some can outperform Bitcoin, some will be outperformed by Bitcoin.
But after all Bitcoin has been Coin number 1 since Bitcoin was invented.



Yes, monetary policy can be helpful but it's up to the Altcoin developers which need to be honest.
This is precisely my point. If monetary policy is up to someone, it's flawed comparison. The key aspect of cryptocurrency is to replace trusted third parties, not endorse them. It is to eliminate unreliable factors, not include them. A more proper analogy would be between EUR and ETH, both of which have a pro-feudalistic policy.
Sure, it's depending on which Altcoin we want to analyze. And there's also not only black and white because after all the amount of inflation per year matters.
But my calculations are making a difference between Altcoins suffering from 10% inflation per year (insanely high inflation) and less inflationary ones like Ethereum ("sane" inflation). Altcoins suffering from less inflation will be rated better.  Smiley
By looking 25 years ahead, we can try to get a picture of it.

It's not necessarily bad if the Ethereum devs were elected because by electing we could remove them if we don't agree with their actions.
First of all, they weren't elected. Second, election for having the responsibility of a monetary phenomenon is again precisely the kind of flaw I'm arguing; that is, it brings centralization, and introduces unreliable factors whose decisions can screw the economy up. Third, judging by the Ethereum user base, and the funding of its development from gigantic commercial banks, do you see any user dared to question the decisions, and request a fork? How's ETC doing?
Yes, electing Ethereum developers where 1 ETH = one vote wouldn't work of course because it would lead to rich stakers abusing it. Rich stakers will get a big issue for (a decentralized) Ethereum in my opinion. A fair election process for Ethereum developers wouldn't be possible unter these conditions. That's why I'm in favor of giving not too much power to Altcoin developers.
Fair elections where 1 person = 1 vote is extremely difficult to implement for Altcoin governance, at least currently. But such a fair vote would bring decentralisation to Ethereum.
That's why I'm in favor of less inflationary Altcoins, it's better for decentralisation.
As you've pointed out, forks wouldn't end well, too.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 7340
Farewell, Leo
November 07, 2022, 11:46:25 AM
#15
Yes, monetary policy can be helpful but it's up to the Altcoin developers which need to be honest.
This is precisely my point. If monetary policy is up to someone, it's flawed comparison. The key aspect of cryptocurrency is to replace trusted third parties, not endorse them. It is to eliminate unreliable factors, not include them. A more proper analogy would be between EUR and ETH, both of which have a pro-feudalistic policy.

It's not necessarily bad if the Ethereum devs were elected because by electing we could remove them if we don't agree with their actions.
First of all, they weren't elected. Second, election for having the responsibility of a monetary phenomenon is again precisely the kind of flaw I'm arguing; that is, it brings centralization, and introduces unreliable factors whose decisions can screw the economy up. Third, judging by the Ethereum user base, and the funding of its development from gigantic commercial banks, do you see any user dared to question the decisions, and request a fork? How's ETC doing?
hero member
Activity: 1428
Merit: 653
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
November 07, 2022, 07:00:58 AM
#14
Sorry to say does it mean investing in altcoin presently dangerous?
What I saw from your analogy seems anyone investing in altcoin is at a very big risk, then secondly I know we learn everyday and all time so I can't say I knew it all. If it happens that I found an altcoin to invest, how do I determines the following processes which you have outlined?
Lastly was thinking investing in an altcoin solely depends on project team, use-case and effectiveness of the project because
what actually made me lost interest in altcoin was the effect of 2017 thereabout which few altcoin that tends to have lots of feature couldn't survived the bear which I then drastically change my mind to bitcoin.
sr. member
Activity: 2520
Merit: 366
Catalog Websites
November 07, 2022, 01:10:20 AM
#13
  • Circulating supply:
    • Infinite supply:
      Some coins don’t have a caped supply at all and there will be issued more coins constantly.
      For such coins, we need to look up properly how many of them will be in circulation at some point of time because such coins are at risk of MASSIVE INFLATION.  
Altcoins have many risks and one of them is minting from thin air. Their developer teams can mint new flow of token if they want to use the Mint function. They can mint it to resolve the case of hacks, blockchain compromises or to benefit themselves and make investors poorer.

The risk is we don't know what they will do with that Mint function. If anyone has yet known about the risk, do a research about Terra $LUNA that is rebranded to Terra Classic $LUNC.

it also reminds me of Ethereum Classic. ethereum developers create new tokens for reasons of stronger security. altcoins are not very suitable for investment, especially long term, we will find a lot of drama going on there and it has happened over and over again in many projects. Bitcoin has never been changed or modified since it first appeared and that is what makes bitcoin so unique and special.[/list]
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
November 06, 2022, 11:42:49 PM
#12
It is a good idea to analyze market capitalization better and try to come up with more realistic values but I'd argue that it is still data not information. In order to process that data to then make a decision you have to look at other factors. At the end of the day only utility is defining whether something is worth investing in and can be a store of value or not.

Imagine you want to buy a stock (or better yet penny stock since they are more similar to altcoins). You don't really look at the market capitalization! Instead you check whether the company has anything valuable to offer. For example if you buy Apple's share you know they are producing a product that is used by many customers but someone working out of their garage and calling that a "company" doesn't make it a valuable purchase.

It's the same with cryptocurrencies. In this existing market we have at least 2 exact copies of bitcoin (bcash and bsv) that have the exact same market capitalization (circulating supply, etc.) as bitcoin. Nobody can call them "store of value" simply because they are useless.
And that uselessness is why Polkadot dumps (86% in the past year) or bcash dumps (97% since 2017) not because of their market cap.
legendary
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November 06, 2022, 08:27:41 PM
#11
Besides market cap being a misleading measure, isn't the entire topic flawed? Being a store of value, and being a highly appreciated asset doesn't seem to have any direct relation.
I have to disagree here because issuing more coins constantly can really kill an (Alt)coin. Not today, not tomorrow, not in 2 weeks but maybe in 2 oder 4 years.
In fact, denying that inflation for Altcoins is a big problem and this talking point was first brought up by Shitcoin marketing. It is stupid Shitcoin propaganda, which is pushed constantly by leading centralized Shitcoins such like Polkadot to get more gullible bagholders.  
Bitcoin is designed as a store of value for a reason.
And it's extremely hard to change that, which is very positive.
Of course, Shitcoins want us to believe that issuing more coins is something good. There's a whole bunch of Shitcoin propaganda circulating around that bringing new coins into circulation is somehow beneficial for the coin itself. Most of it is misleading. I would say, yes it is beneficial for centralized PoS Altcoin developers and rich stakers. And for everyone else, it's negative.
So yes, it's positive for probably 10% of the coinholders and not beneficial for probably 90%.

By calculating the numbers from Polkadot, it's pointing out how insane such an inflation will devalue some inflationary PoS-Shitcoins:


Example Polkadot:

Polkadot is considered a highly inflationary altcoin based on nPoS (which is practically dPoS). According to current sources, Polkadot's inflation amounts to about 10% annually, which depends on how much Polkadot is staked. But normally it’s around 10% annually.
In addition, excess Polkadot from inflation can circulate back to Polkadot founders even with a different amount of staked Polkadot, as well as confiscated Polkadot, which can be used or burned by Polkadot developers.

However, there are only a few sources about Polkadot's inflation, since Polkadot's statements of most official sources are limited to the first year or Polkadot even completely deleted most previously available sources, like here (https://w3f-research.readthedocs.io/en/latest/polkadot/economics/1-token-economics.html#inflation-model)
It’s not available anymore.  Roll Eyes
Which is definitely a very big red flag!!
Some information is only available on third-party sites anymore which analyzed Polkaot’s documents when they were still up, such as here: https://www.coinbase.com/de/cloud/discover/solutions/polkadot-token-economics

Currently, Polkadot has a circulating supply of approximately 1,150,000,000 Polkadot at a price of $7.36 per Polkadot, which results in a current market capitalisation of approximately $8,464,000,000.

Assuming 10% annual inflation, the amount of Polkadot would increase to an amount of about 16,500,000,000 Polkadot by 2050, which is 12 times more compared to now.
At current prices of $7.36 per Polkadot, it would mean an adjusted market capitalisation of approximately $120,000,000,000,000,, which would be worrisome 1400 percent above today's market capitalisation.
As a reminder: Bitcoin is only just under 10 percent here.
Anyone who knows about markets can only conclude that the price per Polkadot will decrease massively by 2050. Considering the same market capitalisation in 2022 vs. 2050, the price per Polkadot would have to decrease from $7.36 today to $0.51 (!) in 2050.

Conclusion: Polkadot is an inflationary Shitcoin where large quantities of Polkadot Coins coming into circulation in the future will go to rich stakers...
The price per Polkadot Coin will drop massively when looking at Polkadots adjusted market capitalisation (for example 2050).
That's why I wouldn't touch inflationary Shitcoins.

I’m not talking about Ethereum here because Ethereum is different from my analysis. If we apply my analysis on Ethereum, yes, we will see some red flags. But we will also see that for the current situation, inflation isn’t a problem for Ethereum currently. But it can change, which is a red flag in my opinion. It’s not predictable.
Or take Avalanche, it’s also capped. But it could be changed quite easily which is also a red flag.
And Ethereum + Avalanche are already one of the best Altcoins.



There's one parameter, among others, that you don't take into consideration, and it's very important: monetary policy. Inflationary or not, infinite supply or not, it doesn't matter if you don't look at the monetary policy.
Yes, monetary policy can be helpful but it's up to the Altcoin developers which need to be honest. It's not necessarily bad if the Ethereum devs were elected because by electing we could remove them if we don't agree with their actions.



Take Ethereum as an example. Bitcoin's and Ethereum's monetary policies aren't the same. Bitcoin's is consisted of inflexibility. We know that there will be 21 million coins, and they'll come into circulation according to the given schedule. We've accepted this rule, and we're building on top of it. There's no going back. Bitcoin's monetary policy is non-negotiatable, and it is in fact the single most significant feature we all admire. It is characterized by stability, and censorship resistance.

Ethereum, on the other hand, is characterized by flexibility. The developers have said it themselves that they haven't programmed the proper policy yet. It isn't set in stone yet, and it'll most likely never be. Vitalik, as a highly influencive leader, might as well decide to censor certain transactions (it has happened more than once), or mess with the supply. Therefore, they're apples and oranges in the end. I wouldn't put my money to such subjectively driven project in the long run, even if it's highly appreciated.
I can agree here, Ethereum is quite different from Bitcoin and it's legit to try out new ideas. I can support that.
But the issue is when an Altcoin is flawed from the beginning. Not just technically flawed, like Solana but also fundamentally flawed. And PoS Coins tend to be fundamentally flawed. It's legit to try to solve these problems. But the problem is fraudulent marketing to get more bagholders. Shitcoins are good at fraudulent marketing.
There are various examples for misleading marketing like miscalculating tx/second or downplaying inflationary tokenomics where rich stakers are profiteers or calling dPoS nPoS etc etc. Shitcoin marketing can be very misleading.
Ethereum isn't a coin, which is coming to my mind when bringing up fraudulent Altcoins, but for example, Polkdot is (inflation) or Solana (flawed tech), too.
It's already possible to see the disaster coming. That's what my topic is about: calculating ourself if there will be issues in the future, for specific coins.



Anybody please correct me if I'm wrong. Ethereum's EIP-1559 update doesn't necessarily make it deflationary.
You are right, Ethereum is only deflationaryif enough fees are burned.
There's a a statistics site about it: https://ultrasound.money/



Altcoins have many risks and one of them is minting from thin air. Their developer teams can mint new flow of token if they want to use the Mint function. They can mint it to resolve the case of hacks, blockchain compromises or to benefit themselves and make investors poorer.

The risk is we don't know what they will do with that Mint function. If anyone has yet known about the risk, do a research about Terra $LUNA that is rebranded to Terra Classic $LUNC.
+1
Very important point.
legendary
Activity: 1512
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Farewell, Leo
November 06, 2022, 04:07:49 PM
#10
Besides market cap being a misleading measure, isn't the entire topic flawed? Being a store of value, and being a highly appreciated asset doesn't seem to have any direct relation. There's one parameter, among others, that you don't take into consideration, and it's very important: monetary policy. Inflationary or not, infinite supply or not, it doesn't matter if you don't look at the monetary policy.

Take Ethereum as an example. Bitcoin's and Ethereum's monetary policies aren't the same. Bitcoin's is consisted of inflexibility. We know that there will be 21 million coins, and they'll come into circulation according to the given schedule. We've accepted this rule, and we're building on top of it. There's no going back. Bitcoin's monetary policy is non-negotiatable, and it is in fact the single most significant feature we all admire. It is characterized by stability, and censorship resistance.

Ethereum, on the other hand, is characterized by flexibility. The developers have said it themselves that they haven't programmed the proper policy yet. It isn't set in stone yet, and it'll most likely never be. Vitalik, as a highly influencive leader, might as well decide to censor certain transactions (it has happened more than once), or mess with the supply. Therefore, they're apples and oranges in the end. I wouldn't put my money to such subjectively driven project in the long run, even if it's highly appreciated.
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