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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2770. (Read 26720873 times)

legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
I don't know what to make of it.

People are stupid and do not self custody and allow their coins to be used in naked shorting, Fractional reserve banking and participate in derivative never settling markets and then cry they don't know whats happening when its been spelt out to them for years?

Nah, thats not it.


Edit: got beat to it while spell checking. Wink
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 1891
bitcoin retard
Whatever the ultimate bottom is, I expect "only" 5-10X in the next cycle (from the bottom).
Why? Prior cycles:
$2 bottom, then $1160 top or 580X
$175 bottom, then $19780 top or 113X
$3100 bottom, then $68900 top or 22X

As you can see, the multiple keeps decreasing drastically (by a factor of about 5) in each consecutive cycle.
Accordingly, the next number for a top is roughly 5X of the bottom, but due to some variability, perhaps up to 10X is possible.
Currently, this would mean either $77.5K (which would be a GREAT disappointment for almost everyone) or up to, perhaps, $155K, which could be OK.

That would mean BTC can never exceed gold.

I doubt that this progression will be valid forever...  Wink




there is a bit of a paradox in bitcoin behavior so far.
Let me formulate it:

Bitcoin's bull stages appear to be progressively shallower from the bottom (at depicted above-from 580X to 113X to 22X), but downward plunges changed only marginally; from -94% to -87% to -84% to, currently, -77.5%. Therefore, if the trend continues and our next top is, say, 150K, then -70% down would be 45K and if only a marginal top in 80K vicinity, then $24K bottom in 2026-2027, which would be quite brutal in comparison with even the 2021 top. I don't know what to make of it. I always thought that IF bulls were to become shallower, then bears would be as well, but SO FAR, it did not really happen (at least not as much). Anyone with an explanation?

TL;DR If bull parts of the cycle became shallower, why bear phases are almost as relentless as two cycle ago?



maybe because "we will tame Bitcoin"....
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 4004
Merit: 4656
Whatever the ultimate bottom is, I expect "only" 5-10X in the next cycle (from the bottom).
Why? Prior cycles:
$2 bottom, then $1160 top or 580X
$175 bottom, then $19780 top or 113X
$3100 bottom, then $68900 top or 22X

As you can see, the multiple keeps decreasing drastically (by a factor of about 5) in each consecutive cycle.
Accordingly, the next number for a top is roughly 5X of the bottom, but due to some variability, perhaps up to 10X is possible.
Currently, this would mean either $77.5K (which would be a GREAT disappointment for almost everyone) or up to, perhaps, $155K, which could be OK.

That would mean BTC can never exceed gold.

I doubt that this progression will be valid forever...  Wink




there is a bit of a paradox in bitcoin behavior so far.
Let me formulate it:

Bitcoin's bull stages appear to be progressively shallower from the bottom (at depicted above-from 580X to 113X to 22X), but downward plunges changed only marginally; from -94% to -87% to -84% to, currently, -77.5%. Therefore, if the trend continues and our next top is, say, 150K, then -70% down would be 45K and if only a marginal top in 80K vicinity, then $24K bottom in 2026-2027, which would be quite brutal in comparison with even the 2021 top. I don't know what to make of it. I always thought that IF bulls were to become shallower, then bears would be as well, but SO FAR, it did not really happen (at least not as much). Anyone with an explanation?

TL;DR If bull parts of the cycle became shallower, why bear phases are almost as relentless as two cycle ago?
legendary
Activity: 4004
Merit: 4656
Some dates:

Currently, halving is adjusted to March 22, 2024 (from original May) assuming that it stays this way (hashrate) for a while.
Pantera fund (Morehead et al) says that bottom occurs at around 477 days before halving.

Therefore, THE bottom is projected on Dec 1, 2022, but since it is so close, me might have had it already at $15.5K, or otherwise hedgies might push more for it to close the month lower.
I would be comfortable if we are at the expected $36K-40K at the halving, but suspect a bigger bump beforehand a la 2019 (maybe 49-50K).
Place your bets.

EDIT btw, Pantera just bought about $140mil in btc (a first btc fund fundraise since 2015).
https://www.trustnodes.com/2022/11/19/pantera-buys-140-million-bitcoin
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 1891
bitcoin retard
Whatever the ultimate bottom is, I expect "only" 5-10X in the next cycle (from the bottom).
Why? Prior cycles:
$2 bottom, then $1160 top or 580X
$175 bottom, then $19780 top or 113X
$3100 bottom, then $68900 top or 22X

As you can see, the multiple keeps decreasing drastically (by a factor of about 5) in each consecutive cycle.
Accordingly, the next number for a top is roughly 5X of the bottom, but due to some variability, perhaps up to 10X is possible.
Currently, this would mean either $77.5K (which would be a GREAT disappointment for almost everyone) or up to, perhaps, $155K, which could be OK.

That would mean BTC can never exceed gold.

I doubt that this progression will be valid forever...  Wink


legendary
Activity: 3556
Merit: 9709
#1 VIP Crypto Casino
Buddy Breaker.

When $30,000?
legendary
Activity: 2380
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 2380
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legendary
Activity: 882
Merit: 1873
Crypto Swap Exchange


Wondering what exactly is the advice
We see a man going his way with an 'obstacle' ahead that may distract him and interrupt his plan for a while.  What I understand is that you better avoid distractions and obstacles than confront them.  Change your path and ignore the rules if necessary, but avoid any obstacle you can think of.

This is in fact an advice I often use myself.  Maybe why I interpret this image that way as well.  I found out that by seeking ways to avoid obstacles and distractions I am making a much faster and better progress than I would of made by confronting them, even if sometimes this means I have to break rules.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG
member
Activity: 812
Merit: 53
legendary
Activity: 3794
Merit: 5474


Wondering what exactly is the advice

I'm pretty sure it's advising you not to place yourself in a situation where you might encounter a single lady. You could start talking to her, then she becomes your girlfriend, then you get married, then she steals all your wealth. Pretty simple.

Incels will never get the financial advice anyway, because when she sees them coming, the beautiful lady will either turn around or rapidly cross the street herself.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 2380
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legendary
Activity: 3808
Merit: 7912


Wondering what exactly is the advice

I'm pretty sure it's advising you not to place yourself in a situation where you might encounter a single lady. You could start talking to her, then she becomes your girlfriend, then you get married, then she steals all your wealth. Pretty simple.

Unless she has Bitcoin.

 In my country,  it's bad luck to walk past a fire hydrant on your right-hand side.
legendary
Activity: 2380
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 2380
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legendary
Activity: 3234
Merit: 5637
Blackjack.fun-Free Raffle-Join&Win $50🎲
At this stage of the market, everyone has their prediction, so the predictions even confuses us, Pantera gives his own prediction that in 2024 March is the time of the ATH of $149,000.

I won't check their speculations, but I think they might be wrong for the whole year, unless they think the new ATH is realistic before the halving.

As it is I am really worry of the market right now because I bought Bitcoin at the time of 21$ and I want to use the money for the Xmas. Though it is not much but at least it can but small things, I was planning to hodle it till the next bull.

If by any chance you bought Bitcoin at the price of $21, today you wouldn't have to think about what you will buy for Christmas - even with the current price, you would be in a big profit Wink

Is it that the fall of FXT is the cause of this 16$ for this long period it time?

I don't think it needs to be further explained, and no one knows how long it will take for Bitcoin to recover - maybe a few months, maybe a year. I think Bankman will take the title of Grinch this Christmas.

jr. member
Activity: 235
Merit: 1
SATOSHI NAKAMOTO. ₿ANKING THE UN₿ANKED SINCE 2009.

Bitcoin magazine store collection😀






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legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
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