Whatever the ultimate bottom is, I expect "only" 5-10X in the next cycle (from the bottom).
Why? Prior cycles:
$2 bottom, then $1160 top or 580X
$175 bottom, then $19780 top or 113X
$3100 bottom, then $68900 top or 22X
As you can see, the multiple keeps decreasing drastically (by a factor of about 5) in each consecutive cycle.
Accordingly, the next number for a top is roughly 5X of the bottom, but due to some variability, perhaps up to 10X is possible.
Currently, this would mean either $77.5K (which would be a GREAT disappointment for almost everyone) or up to, perhaps, $155K, which could be OK.
That would mean BTC can never exceed gold.
I doubt that this progression will be valid forever...
there is a bit of a paradox in bitcoin behavior so far.
Let me formulate it:
Bitcoin's bull stages appear to be progressively shallower from the bottom (at depicted above-from 580X to 113X to 22X), but downward plunges changed only marginally; from -94% to -87% to -84% to, currently, -77.5%. Therefore, if the trend continues and our next top is, say, 150K, then -70% down would be 45K and if only a marginal top in 80K vicinity, then $24K bottom in 2026-2027, which would be quite brutal in comparison with even the 2021 top. I don't know what to make of it. I always thought that IF bulls were to become shallower, then bears would be as well, but SO FAR, it did not really happen (at least not as much). Anyone with an explanation?
TL;DR If bull parts of the cycle became shallower, why bear phases are almost as relentless as two cycle ago?