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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 24498. (Read 26720153 times)

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
...Those 180'000 BTC  were kept away from the market; and part of them, at least, must have been bought by SR customers on the open market.  So Ross was obviously accumulating.  I would even guess that he had been holding almost all the bitcoins that he got.
...

That's important, DPR was in accumulation mode during 2013, and if now BOTH him and the US gov believe it's time to cash out, then they both expect much lower prices in the near future.

You really think the FBI talked to DPR and discussed with him whether now would be a good time to sell? They sell now because they can, the FBI are no speculators and they certainly didn't ask for DPR's permission first.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
Not sure how you got from "two participants [going] on record [with] lowball offers" to anything meaningful.  If offers were made @$100 or even $20 per, would the statements be any different?

Lowball offer based on market price means market price times some value < 1.

The lower that value, the more arb profit. The closer that value to 1, the higher the chance you'll get a chance at arb profit.

If you think they submitted a $20 offers, sure, go ahead. I sure would have liked to see the meeting the bank lady had with her superiors afterwards. Cheesy

What wraps it up is that one participant outbid all other participants on all lots. The previous auction converged around market price at the time, that's all I'm saying. I don't care if it was market +5% or market -5%, but my point is, from references to on-exchange market price plus auction mechanics and one winner of all lots, "near market" is a pretty conservative conclusion. Harping on about how it probably went away for a fraction sounds more like wishful thinking to me, tbh.
legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1009
No big moves during the night.

So boring.


Was expecting something
hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 526
🐺Dogs for President🐺
...Those 180'000 BTC  were kept away from the market; and part of them, at least, must have been bought by SR customers on the open market.  So Ross was obviously accumulating.  I would even guess that he had been holding almost all the bitcoins that he got.
...

That's important, DPR was in accumulation mode during 2013, and if now BOTH him and the US gov believe it's time to cash out, then they both expect much lower prices in the near future.

Yer like when UK prime minister expected gold to plumet and sold 70% of the UK's gold reserves only to see it rally to a new all time high.

Or when the Russians signed a gas deal with the Chinese this year only to realise after transportation they would make a loss.

Or when The UK decided not to join the euro when the pound was worth 2 euros only to see the euro almost reach parity with the pound.

Or like when Japan decided to use QE to solve the looming recession only to see 15 years of stagnation followed by another recession now starting.


Governments are cleaver like that.  
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
I'm sure DPR is as much a speculative genius as our 5th of October 30k "bearwhale", and that he is as well versed in speculation as in the art of safely conducting criminal business (such as browsing the SR admin panel on his laptop in a public library and leaving 144k BTC unencrypted). Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
...Those 180'000 BTC  were kept away from the market; and part of them, at least, must have been bought by SR customers on the open market.  So Ross was obviously accumulating.  I would even guess that he had been holding almost all the bitcoins that he got.
...

That's important, DPR was in accumulation mode during 2013, and if now BOTH him and the US gov believe it's time to cash out, then they both expect much lower prices in the near future.
hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 526
🐺Dogs for President🐺

I'm a Scot, there's noo chance of that Wink


Cheesy

You could have done with a Denis Law last night...  

I almost wanted Scotland to make it 2-2, to test to see if England would collapse, but then I thought... naaah

full member
Activity: 145
Merit: 100

"Trouble started when people began speculating that the value of Bitcoin would rise, thereby raising the demand for Bitcoin and making the value-rise a self-fulfilling prophesy. ... Bitcoin is not a deliberate Ponzi."

If World Bank has ever made claims to the contrary, please cite.
I can't find you're right, i was thinking that they claimed that, anyway a lot of people say that btc is a ponzi scheme, for all of them it should be better to read that article
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
... it is at least as tempting to buy in at the current level than it was at the level during the previous auction, and probably more so.

What do you mean?  Do you know the price paid at the last auction?  (If not, what are you extrapolating from?)

We don't know the exact price that the lots took in last time, but probably neither drastically above nor below market. Not drastically below, because one guy got them all, not drastically above, because the premium to get them all in one, counter party risk free lot is there, but probably not so large that it warrants, say, doubling market price.

And I'll add: while nobody named their exact bid, iirc two participants went on record that they submitted, in their words, lowball offers, but they still referred to it in the context of current on-exchange market price. That was seriously an enlightening moment for me: I had always, in the most bearish corner of my mind, suspected that there might be "the market price" that us dumbasses pay, and the "true value of a coin" the big boys are looking at. Turns out, the big boys (and girls) are just staring at market price as defined by on-exchange trading as we do. Small consolation Cheesy

Not sure how you got from "two participants [going] on record [with] lowball offers" to anything meaningful.  If offers were made @$100 or even $20 per, would the statements be any different?

Just how much wish fulfilment is involved here?

N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
... it is at least as tempting to buy in at the current level than it was at the level during the previous auction, and probably more so.

What do you mean?  Do you know the price paid at the last auction?  (If not, what are you extrapolating from?)

We don't know the exact price that the lots took in last time, but probably neither drastically above nor below market. Not drastically below, because one guy got them all, not drastically above, because the premium to get them all in one, counter party risk free lot is there, but probably not so large that it warrants, say, doubling market price.

And I'll add: while nobody named their exact bid, iirc two participants went on record that they submitted, in their words, lowball offers, but they still referred to it in the context of current on-exchange market price. That was seriously an enlightening moment for me: I had always, in the most bearish corner of my mind, suspected that there might be "the market price" that us dumbasses pay, and the "true value of a coin" the big boys are looking at. Turns out, the big boys (and girls) are just staring at market price as defined by on-exchange trading as we do. Small consolation Cheesy
This is why Willy v2 is inevitable.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
... it is at least as tempting to buy in at the current level than it was at the level during the previous auction, and probably more so.

What do you mean?  Do you know the price paid at the last auction?  (If not, what are you extrapolating from?)

We don't know the exact price that the lots took in last time, but probably neither drastically above nor below market. Not drastically below, because one guy got them all, not drastically above, because the premium to get them all in one, counter party risk free lot is there, but probably not so large that it warrants, say, doubling market price.

And I'll add: while nobody named their exact bid, iirc two participants went on record that they submitted, in their words, lowball offers, but they still referred to it in the context of current on-exchange market price. That was seriously an enlightening moment for me: I had always, in the most bearish corner of my mind, suspected that there might be "the market price" that us dumbasses pay, and the "true value of a coin" the big boys are looking at. Turns out, the big boys (and girls) are just staring at market price as defined by on-exchange trading as we do. Small consolation Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
... it is at least as tempting to buy in at the current level than it was at the level during the previous auction, and probably more so.

What do you mean?  Do you know the price paid at the last auction?  (If not, what are you extrapolating from?)
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254

"Trouble started when people began speculating that the value of Bitcoin would rise, thereby raising the demand for Bitcoin and making the value-rise a self-fulfilling prophesy. ... Bitcoin is not a deliberate Ponzi."

If World Bank has ever made claims to the contrary, please cite.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
Tim Draper is holding (so he says; although his coins moved recently, it seems).  Given his experience (~33% paper loss so far), the next auction winner may be a speculator who buys substantially below market to sell right away, possibly on the markets. 

People (the bearish side of the forum, I mean) said exactly the same thing last time. That'd it be turned into arb profit right away (which was and is plausible, of course. iirc correctly, there was even a lady from some bank registered that *did* specialize in arb ^_^). Didn't work out that way. We don't know the exact price that the lots took in last time, but probably neither drastically above nor below market. Not drastically below, because one guy got them all, not drastically above, because the premium to get them all in one, counter party risk free lot is there, but probably not so large that it warrants, say, doubling market price.

All of the above holds this time again. Arb opportunity still exists, but requires getting the coins well below market. Will that happen? I strongly doubt it. Renewed volume across all exchanges, and several large buys of Secondmarket during the last weeks lead me to think the current price level is maybe not "stable" (nothing is ever stable in the banana republic of Bitcoin), but that it is at least as tempting to buy in at the current level than it was at the level during the previous auction, and probably more so.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
Messrs Branson and Draper never lie and are always right.



  ~Your Beneficent Reptilian Overlords
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Whoa, no need to get upset....  I don't  knwo what you though I was implying...

Silkroad was accumulating Bitcoins ? What does that even mean ? Isn't that the idea of running a business?! Do you say of all other businesses that they are accumulating USD?

The raid found ~30'000 BTC in the server and ~150'000 BTC in Ross's laptop.  Those were presumably the proceeds of fees from hosting businessess on SilkRoad.  Those 180'000 BTC  were kept away from the market; and part of them, at least, must have been bought by SR customers on the open market.  So Ross was obviously accumulating.  I would even guess that he had been holding almost all the bitcoins that he got.

Drapers coins moved, but guess what. Thanks to the miracle that is the blockchain fudsters only need to click their mouse once and they can see that they have just been moved to another address. I can think of 101 reasons to do this.

Well, one of those 101 is to transfer them to a new owner; another is to deposit them on an exchange...

Did you miss the article where he says he will bid again? I think your 100% wrong with the last assertion, if anything experience tells you that bidding below market just won't cut it if you want to win the coins.

Most people who enter a commodity auction do not want to get the item at any cost, they want to make a good deal; which almost always means buying it below market price.

For the reason already stated, I strongly suspect that all the bets in the previous auction, including Draper's, were below the market price at the time (600$/BTC).  I expect that the same will happen in this auction.

33% paper loss is roughly $6 mill. Thats chump change to a billionaire. Especially one who has said again recently he still believes it could go to 10k.

Billionaires do not become so by not minding the loss of 6 millions.

Any one who owns a few thousand BTC will say that it will surely go to the moon one day.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
I'm always on wisdom too. although I don't trust it 100%.

Bitcoinwidsom is really good, i think it is the best exchange viewer, but it could be a few seconds late, so you have to be careful when you buy or sell at market price.

I'm English but don't hold it against me Cheesy


I am happy to speak english here, this is the only thing i do to maintain my english level these days. I specified i am french to explain why i display kraken price.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
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