Topic: Mad as a box of frogs - page 2. (Read 3214 times)
This is also a great quote for those who claim to predict the future value of stocks and sell their advice.
Pretty amusing read, thanks OP 
Doesn't really apply to Bitcoin (or any other market) though, right? Sure, there are plenty people that get rich simply by luck, but the Buffett example is that of a coin -- presumably a provably fair coin, meaning there is nothing to predict about tossing that coin besides the fact that either outcome is equally likely.
That's hardly what happens in markets. Why would human behavior, guided by (depending on your philosophical assumptions) free will or quasi-deterministic processes suddenly become completely random just because it is group behavior rather than that of one individual. Sure, there's some noise and randomness, but almost certainly not to the point where there is no prediction possible.
Meh. Unnecessary rant, I guess. After all, this is the speculation subforum. Surely noone here thinks the market is nothing but a coin toss.
I'd be willing to bet that for most speculators here there is sufficient complexity and number of variables to render their predictions about as accurate as guessing coin flips. Doesn't really apply to Bitcoin (or any other market) though, right? Sure, there are plenty people that get rich simply by luck, but the Buffett example is that of a coin -- presumably a provably fair coin, meaning there is nothing to predict about tossing that coin besides the fact that either outcome is equally likely.
That's hardly what happens in markets. Why would human behavior, guided by (depending on your philosophical assumptions) free will or quasi-deterministic processes suddenly become completely random just because it is group behavior rather than that of one individual. Sure, there's some noise and randomness, but almost certainly not to the point where there is no prediction possible.
Meh. Unnecessary rant, I guess. After all, this is the speculation subforum. Surely noone here thinks the market is nothing but a coin toss.
Doesn't really apply to Bitcoin (or any other market) though, right? Sure, there are plenty people that get rich simply by luck, but the Buffett example is that of a coin -- presumably a provably fair coin, meaning there is nothing to predict about tossing that coin besides the fact that either outcome is equally likely.
I think the point is that some self-proclaimed "experts" get lucky and profit based on their whims rather than any real market research or logic. But they certainly think their strategy is sound because it's worked so far. 
Pretty amusing read, thanks OP
Doesn't really apply to Bitcoin (or any other market) though, right? Sure, there are plenty people that get rich simply by luck, but the Buffett example is that of a coin -- presumably a provably fair coin, meaning there is nothing to predict about tossing that coin besides the fact that either outcome is equally likely.
That's hardly what happens in markets. Why would human behavior, guided by (depending on your philosophical assumptions) free will or quasi-deterministic processes suddenly become completely random just because it is group behavior rather than that of one individual. Sure, there's some noise and randomness, but almost certainly not to the point where there is no prediction possible.
Meh. Unnecessary rant, I guess. After all, this is the speculation subforum. Surely noone here thinks the market is nothing but a coin toss.
Doesn't really apply to Bitcoin (or any other market) though, right? Sure, there are plenty people that get rich simply by luck, but the Buffett example is that of a coin -- presumably a provably fair coin, meaning there is nothing to predict about tossing that coin besides the fact that either outcome is equally likely.
That's hardly what happens in markets. Why would human behavior, guided by (depending on your philosophical assumptions) free will or quasi-deterministic processes suddenly become completely random just because it is group behavior rather than that of one individual. Sure, there's some noise and randomness, but almost certainly not to the point where there is no prediction possible.
Meh. Unnecessary rant, I guess. After all, this is the speculation subforum. Surely noone here thinks the market is nothing but a coin toss.
A keeper for sure.
Brilliant. Thanks for that. 
There is far too much craziness to post anything sensible today, so I will just post a quote I like about speculators instead.
‘I would like you to imagine a national coin-flipping contest. Let’s assume we get 225 million Americans up tomorrow morning and we ask them all to wager a dollar. They go out in the morning at sunrise and they all call the flip of a coin. If they call correctly, they win a dollar from those who called wrong. Each day the losers drop out and on the subsequent day the stakes build as all previous winnings are put on the line. After ten flips on ten mornings, there will be approximately 20,000 people in the United States who have correctly called ten flips in a row. They each will have won a little over $1,000. Now this group will probably start getting a little puffed up about this - human nature being what it is. They may try to be modest, but at cocktail parties they will occasionally admit to attractive members of the opposite sex what their technique is and what marvelous insights they bring to the field of flipping.
Assuming that the winners are getting the appropriate rewards from the losers, in another ten days we will have 215 people who have successfully called their coin flips 20 times in a row and who, by this exercise. each have turned one dollar into a little over $1 million. $225 million would have been lost, $225 million would have been won. By then this group will really lose their heads. They will probably write books on “How I Turned a Dollar into a Million in Twenty Days Working Thirty Seconds a Morning.” Worse yet, they'll probably start jetting around the country attending seminars on efficient coin-flipping and tackling skeptical professors with, “If it can’t be done, why are there 215 of us?" But then some business school professor will probably be rude enough to bring up the fact that if 225 million orangutans had engaged in a similar exercise the results would be much the same—215 egotistical orangutans with 20 straight winning flips.’
- Warren E. Buffett
‘I would like you to imagine a national coin-flipping contest. Let’s assume we get 225 million Americans up tomorrow morning and we ask them all to wager a dollar. They go out in the morning at sunrise and they all call the flip of a coin. If they call correctly, they win a dollar from those who called wrong. Each day the losers drop out and on the subsequent day the stakes build as all previous winnings are put on the line. After ten flips on ten mornings, there will be approximately 20,000 people in the United States who have correctly called ten flips in a row. They each will have won a little over $1,000. Now this group will probably start getting a little puffed up about this - human nature being what it is. They may try to be modest, but at cocktail parties they will occasionally admit to attractive members of the opposite sex what their technique is and what marvelous insights they bring to the field of flipping.
Assuming that the winners are getting the appropriate rewards from the losers, in another ten days we will have 215 people who have successfully called their coin flips 20 times in a row and who, by this exercise. each have turned one dollar into a little over $1 million. $225 million would have been lost, $225 million would have been won. By then this group will really lose their heads. They will probably write books on “How I Turned a Dollar into a Million in Twenty Days Working Thirty Seconds a Morning.” Worse yet, they'll probably start jetting around the country attending seminars on efficient coin-flipping and tackling skeptical professors with, “If it can’t be done, why are there 215 of us?" But then some business school professor will probably be rude enough to bring up the fact that if 225 million orangutans had engaged in a similar exercise the results would be much the same—215 egotistical orangutans with 20 straight winning flips.’
- Warren E. Buffett
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