Sure it just doubled, and hasn't gone parabolic yet so will likely go sideways or correct for a while soon.
But it's also likely we will go into another major bubble sooner or later.
Past performance is the - best - indicator of future performance.
This chart helps me a lot:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/logarithmic-non-linear-regression-bitcoin-estimated-value-831547
When do you consider the trend up, when down?
For me, when the 50 day moving avg crosses the 200 day, that means trend is up since end 2015 when it left $250:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSza1gSMAzm1g200za2gSMAzm2g50zv
Until we cross it again I consider this a new bull market where I will remain long.