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Topic: Mainstream merchant adoption leads do declining Bitcoin price? - page 2. (Read 3704 times)

legendary
Activity: 4466
Merit: 3391
Most retailers use a payment processor like Bitpay or Coinbase. Because of this, the retailer doesn't even see the coin, it goes straight to the processor who then gives the retailer the fiat equivelant. When you buy at Newegg or Overstock, you're actually giving your bitcoin to Coinbase or Bitpay, who I wager are NOT dumping that coin, because they need as much as possible on hand to sell to others. They probably sell enough to keep some baseline ratio for their fiat/btc stores, but it does NOT mean that massive amounts of coin are being dumped because retailers accept bitcoin.

Actually, the recent drop in BTC probably has more to do with the surging dollar than anything...

Whether they are "dumping" the coins or not is irrelevant. Either way they must still sell all the coins in order to pay fiat for the merchants, and this selling creates downward pressure on the price.

I can see through my trading activities that user adoption has been very slow this year (maybe 10% - 20% of last year). It is clear to me that the combination of increasing merchant sales and slow user adoption is driving the price down.

I don't believe the rising dollar is a significant factor. The dollar has risen 10% against other currencies since May, but Bitcoin has fallen more than 40%. If the fall is due to the surging dollar, then you would expect the price of Bitcoin to be rising in other currencies, but it isn't.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1004
At the moment it is true. But when bitcoin goes to mainstream, bitcoin price is stable and anti-inflation. No matter the merchants or the holders tend to keep bitcoin. Many products are priced as bitcoin. More merchants adoption means the price is increasing.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
*Bitcoin Betting*
not exactly. Some countries are against BTC. The PPL are difficult to buy and sell bitcoin from the official channels. So many ppl in the world are closed to bitcoin. If the countries are open to it, the demand will be pushed higher.

The problem is countries (specially third world) are not open to it.
full member
Activity: 188
Merit: 102
Merchant adoption has always been the Holy Grail of Bitcoin enthusiasts. Supposedly it should have lead so soaring Bitcoin price. But recent overlap of really major adoption (Paypal) and price slump shows that things are trickier.

The dynamics seems to be the exact opposite one: new high volume merchant will never hold bitcoin, due to obvious reasons. They will sell it the second they accept it. So basically it leads to Bitcoin sell-off through huge market sell orders, which are not matched by opposite buy orders, since no one is going to buy Bitcoin in order to pay using Paypal. Existing Bitcoin holders spend their coins, this is the main effect of mainstream merchant adoption.

Don't expect Bitcoin price to rise as new merchants jump on board. Only Wall street can push BTC higher now, but probably the time hasn't come yet.  $100-200 BTC price is realistic, Bitcoin economy will still work fine at this price level.

Wanna hear your opinion.

Most retailers use a payment processor like Bitpay or Coinbase. Because of this, the retailer doesn't even see the coin, it goes straight to the processor who then gives the retailer the fiat equivelant. When you buy at Newegg or Overstock, you're actually giving your bitcoin to Coinbase or Bitpay, who I wager are NOT dumping that coin, because they need as much as possible on hand to sell to others. They probably sell enough to keep some baseline ratio for their fiat/btc stores, but it does NOT mean that massive amounts of coin are being dumped because retailers accept bitcoin.

Actually, the recent drop in BTC probably has more to do with the surging dollar than anything...
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1131
Existing Bitcoin holders spend their coins, this is the main effect of mainstream merchant adoption.
Why did these bitcoin holders buy coins in the first place?  You are presuming a large demographic of people that considered bitcoins worth having when there was little merchant adoption but not worth having now that bitcoins are more widely accepted.
Besides, there's a far simpler explanation for the 2014 bear market: A correction to the 2013 bubble(s).

Exactly.
In case people didn't notice, we've been through the biggest Bitcoin bubble ever.
What goes up, must go down. The higher you go, the lower you'll fall.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1011
Existing Bitcoin holders spend their coins, this is the main effect of mainstream merchant adoption.

Why did these bitcoin holders buy coins in the first place?  You are presuming a large demographic of people that considered bitcoins worth having when there was little merchant adoption but not worth having now that bitcoins are more widely accepted.

Besides, there's a far simpler explanation for the 2014 bear market: A correction to the 2013 bubble(s).
legendary
Activity: 3542
Merit: 1352
Cashback 15%
Major merchant adoption drives the price down because they don't keep their profits in BTC, instead they trade it for fiat. Because of that, the price of the coins slowly deprive and no one would buy bitcoins to use Paypal. The adoption of a big player in the economy really helps bitcoin in terms of support and adoption, but the massive sell-off from these adopters is a problem in terms of bitcoin's price.

But then again, increased adoption helps bitcoin big time. B-)
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1016
not exactly. Some countries are against BTC. The PPL are difficult to buy and sell bitcoin from the official channels. So many ppl in the world are closed to bitcoin. If the countries are open to it, the demand will be pushed higher.
newbie
Activity: 26
Merit: 0
Merchant adoption has always been the Holy Grail of Bitcoin enthusiasts. Supposedly it should have lead so soaring Bitcoin price. But recent overlap of really major adoption (Paypal) and price slump shows that things are trickier.

The dynamics seems to be the exact opposite one: new high volume merchant will never hold bitcoin, due to obvious reasons. They will sell it the second they accept it. So basically it leads to Bitcoin sell-off through huge market sell orders, which are not matched by opposite buy orders, since no one is going to buy Bitcoin in order to pay using Paypal. Existing Bitcoin holders spend their coins, this is the main effect of mainstream merchant adoption.

Don't expect Bitcoin price to rise as new merchants jump on board. Only Wall street can push BTC higher now, but probably the time hasn't come yet.  $100-200 BTC price is realistic, Bitcoin economy will still work fine at this price level.

Wanna hear your opinion.
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