Topic: Manufacturing orders to China down 40% in unrelenting demand collapse (Read 519 times)

I will say this - not all manufacturers and not all products.
For example, take cars - from personal experience - European A-brands (Mercedes, BMW, ...) quality - DECREASED. No, from the point of view of the quality of materials and reliability, everything is fine, but the life span has really decreased. It is certainly more than warranty figures, but a 10-year-old post-2010 Mercedes feels "worse" than its older brother, for example, a 2000 model. Toyota is still happy, I was their adherent, and I will continue - they adhere to high quality.

Household appliances - at home almost all Bosch and Miele brand appliances. Yes, it's more expensive, but it works like a Swiss watch! Watches - I like old European brands - for mechanical ones, and for example from smart watches - quite high-quality Samsung. LG TV has already had several models, I changed them, all are working, I give out old ones to my relatives LG OLED65CX is an excellent model!

In audio / video - Korean companies are very good in terms of price / quality!

I can say about these brands - yes, they know how to make comfortable, high-quality products.

Unless something very drastic happens like a direct war between US and another power (as opposed to all their proxy wars) I don't see Petrodollar going away in short or midterm. The process is definitely very slow and it is not like US regime is sitting idle watching it happen. They are fighting it hard. For example ever since the Chinese visit to Riyadh there are talks of a coup an a lot of chaos in Saudi Arabia and the unrest is growing fast. Historically speaking whenever a weak country like Saudi did something similar they were bombed out of existence.

The process may be slow and facing a lot of resistance but it is inevitable.

P.S. What we should be worried about is if some day we see USD be replaced by something just as bad like Yuan!

There are other reasons why the American dollar is valuable in foreign markets though, still the oil/USD liquidity helps a lot.
I am not sure yet better the petro-dollar will find an end in the short or mid term, because there are still oil producing countries which are willing to accept American fiat in exchange of their natural resources.

Venezuela, having the biggest oil reserves on the planet is specially thirsty for dollars, even though the Venezuelan government have close ties to China, Rusia and Iran.

Are you back with your propaganda tales / fantasies?
Once again I tell the dreamers: all contracts are signed with oil and gas prices - in DOLLARS and EURO!
The terms of the contracts were not changed. The Kremlin terrorist, of course, decided to show everyone his fake greatness, and announced that everyone would now buy oil and gas for some incomprehensible rubles, but he was immediately sent. And in order to "save face", they implemented such a scheme (maybe even check the official information) - Correspondent accounts are opened in one of the Russian banks in dollars-euro. Buyers there transfer DOLLARS-EURO. Russia transfers the currency from these accounts to the Moscow currency exchange, where it sells dollars and euros for its own rubles (i.e., they sell and buy to themselves), and the rubles received are counted as payment for oil and gas.
And now explain to everyone - where in this scheme "oil and gas are bought for rubles"?

This is the only thing that has left for US and it is called Petrodollar. The funny thing is that all oil producing countries are slowly dumping US dollar too! The latest is Russia that started when sanctioned and now anyone in Europe that buys anything from Russia is paying in Ruble. Even the US colony called Saudi Arabia is slowly dumping USD, the recent Chinese visit there started a wave of political pressure from US to dissuade them from dumping it (we have to wait and see how successful that can be though). Are we going to say hello to Petroyuan? lol

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With China securing more cheap oil and resuming their economy/production, next year would be very interesting regarding the global energy prices and the industries in the West that don't have access to said cheap oil anymore.

Here the question arises - do modern manufacturers know how to make durable things (products)?  And another question - are modern people ready to consume such products? 

I will give you an example.  English handmade leather shoes can be worn for life (changing soles periodically).  However, will you wear such shoes or would you prefer to buy sneakers? 

At one time, I found that the less durable Puma summer sneakers, the more comfortable they are.  I then started buying four pairs of these comfortable sneakers during the discount season.  They were 50% off.  I wore each pair of sneakers for no more than 3 months, and when the mesh was torn on them, I threw them away. 

Now Puma has closed all its stores in Russia. 

Perhaps soon in Russia they will begin to mass-produce very durable felt boots, but this will not make me very happy.

Many will come to this. wasteful, unbridled consumption, and uneconomical use will become a thing of the past for many. People will learn to save, use what they have more efficiently, and not waste money on buying unnecessary or non-critical goods. This is fine. But this will also lead to a decrease in the turnover of economies like China, when a huge number of "disposable" things are produced. People will give preference to slightly more expensive but better and more reliable things.

I have to say its also a bit of a problem about peoples purchasing power as well. I worked in a company that ordered some stuff from China, and it was like every 2-3 months as well so its not like a small amount, we are talking about nothing major like billions, but like 1.5 million dollars worth every 75 days.

That company now stopped ordering from there because they are not making any profit, so they are just reusing the items after clearing it very carefully, and that is looking like an easy solution most, but this is a towel that they distribute to hotels, when you learn that, it becomes clear why its a big deal, if you are the only one who used that towel that's an elite hotel, if they just wash it and give it back to you, that's not so elite.

Re-read these words of yours again ... And more .. Don't you feel like you are deceiving yourself?
If the United States prints unsecured dollars, and then buys everything they need with them. So those who sell for these unsecured dollars are just primitive stupid suckers? Or is that something wrong? After all, everyone wants to sell their goods and services for dollars, right? Look, China even sold its yuan to Russia for dollars! Yes, yes, it's not a joke, it's a fact!
So your assumption is wrong? Does this mean that the dollar is not only worth its face value, but is also in demand? Well, or are we coming to the conclusion that 90% of the world's population had their brains amputated?!
We come to a logical contradiction ... So you are still mistaken, and the United States simply turned out to be more cunning, smarter, more pragmatic than others, and their product in the form of a dollar is in demand all over the world! Even if nothing is obchespechen!

China's total reported debt, national and local government is already at 45% of GDP (assuming real GDP) so just doubling will put it above the EU average.


Nope, assuming multiple means at least twice there is NO country in the EU that has that much debt, Greece is just at 183%, and only 6 countries have more than 100%. You're overestimating China's economy and really downplaying the European one, the most important thing is that one of the two has worked without the other one for decades and it doesn't really need the other one as much, and that ain't China's. 

I believe the plan of the economic authorities behind the USA economy is the same as usual: to defend the adoption and the state of the USD as global currency, regardless of the amount they have printed or plan to print in the future. They want to keep the demand of their money high around the world, basically.

For this objective, inflationary countries like Argentina, Venezuela and Zimbabwe are ideal, since they demand currency to their economies and even there are proponents of a full de jure dollarization in those places. It would also be important oil producing countries to continue to accept American currency for their energy, for obvious reasons.

But in Russia they say that China is refusing the dollar, and in general many countries are refusing, because no one needs the dollar, it is not backed by anything, and in general everyone will make payments in their currencies and not in this "ugly green"

Of course, CURRENCY is critically important to China, but not just a currency, but one that you can buy what China needs. And he needs a lot! He needs to address issues of the domestic economy, which has a huge hole in the budget. Western technologies and INVESTMENTS are leaving the economy! And this means - now you have to BUY EVERYTHING in the west! And this means the DOLLAR is critically needed!

Last year, China sold a huge amount of yuan to Russia, under the Russian hysteria "give up the dollar." The Russians replaced about 12% of dollar foreign exchange reserves with yuan And then the yuan "fell". Russia's total direct losses from such a "good deal" are more than $10 billion. Oh yes, "cherry on the cake" - China sold its yuan to Russia for ... DOLLARS

Nice find on those special treasury bonds, especially not healthy when you're considering you don't know how much debt you're actually standing on. CN economists must be feeling like they're treading water in the dark. They really don't want to go down that path.

Though to my eye, even if their real debt turns out to be 400% higher than reported (let's be pessimist), they're still end up with total debt well below GDP (which is how I see sustainable debt management). The US is about to break even (and the minute they stop their wars they're back deep in the red, which is why they won't), while almost the entire EU members already have debt multiple times their GDP. That was the eventual Greek route to bankruptcy (though they do seem to like taking that road a lot!).

Reserves that start to look thinner and tinier when it comes to the amount of debt both the central and regional governments are piling up, just the other day they did another trick to refinance expiring bonds and not count it up
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1281553.shtml


Wow, I've never realized monopolies were good for innovation.


Yes, because we all know Europe makes low-quality products, including sarcasm, you should start reading about ASML, and then probably you will realize who is ahead of who.

USA should stop being the money printer of the world to begin with. They keep printing money and then buy something with it from other nations and then they print more when they have none left and we act as if that's okay.

I am sorry but USD doesn't really have the value it used to have, we put value into it, normally I would prefer to go towards Euro a long time ago, even if that doesn't look as strong right now, it has a clearer future right now and looks to be backed by people with actual economic goal, not people who just do whatever they want and show you a guy afterwards to make you accept. China is doing worse because they dependent on others money, that is the main issue.

I think it is a combined after affect of the US economic sanctions and also the impact of the Covid pandemic.... most economies are struggling and their citizens are buying food and paying their expenses.... there are no disposable income to spend on cheap Chinese exports.

The markets are shifting and you seeing more exports from China to other parts of the world, specifically Africa .... where they can dump a lot of technology that cannot be manufactured in those countries. (Lack of skill & education) 

Might also remember while hard cash is needed, China is also sitting on a huge and growing pile of foreign reserves (1/3 of the world's foreign reserves, which it of course needs to continue sitting on in the short term to continue their export policy).

I wouldn't say it's critical. They may be forced to finally show their hand and that would actually be a bone-cruncher on the rest of the world.

Tech not in the east? Not sure that's going to be the truth for much longer, if at all now. Japan, SK, Spore, even China itself, at least on a more distributed level.

I have a strong suspicion that prior to certain actions by China, the US did not plan to take tactfully drastic steps to "de-sinify" part of its economy.
The trigger for launching these processes was ... the behavior of China itself. And it was China that "showed the way to solve at least two problems in the United States."
What does the US get with this vector?
Yes many !
1. New jobs in the US. This is a reduction in tension, this is a "+" in the karma of the president, this is a "return" of the status of an advanced technological country, from the point of view of a full cycle, taxes, and much more
2. Everything is the same, only with a MINUS sign for China. For China, which decided, under the guise of the global crisis and the terrorist war unleashed by Russia in Europe, to show its "protruding ambitions." This applies to Taiwan, which is very significant for the whole world and the United States, in the first place, where the lion's share of microprocessors of the "major league" is produced.
3. Show the whole world that the US can both easily give (technology to China) and easily take away. And who would not say anything about the huge economy of China - it is DEPENDENT on the West. It depends on how much the West will buy (paying with hard currency, which is critically needed by China). And the Chinese economy is dependent - TECHNOLOGICALLY. And technology is the west, not the east ....

US is trying t decrease its dependance on chinese exportions and they seem to be doing this gradually. The division in the world is getting deeper and in a decade or two we will be even more segregated than now, between occident and orient. Each side of the world trading among themselves, while attempting to overcome the opposite side on economical and military aspects.

Personally, I see the increasement of imports from Europe good news if they can supply the occident with goods superior in quality than the chinese ones, which are well known for being cheap, but with low durability and high fragility.

In my opinion, in this situation, everyone will lose.

I look with horror at the growing degradation of the economy and culture in my country, but I understand that we live in a global world and all these negative processes, one way or another, will spread throughout the planet.  The planet's resources are limited.  If each of the countries begins to independently produce microchips, this will result in a slowdown in scientific and technological progress throughout the world.  

Yes, Europe will achieve success in microelectronics, but the initial products are likely to be of poorer quality than under the conditions of the global division of labor.  

And this will happen in all areas of human life.