Topic: Market Prediction for 2024 (Read 366 times)

OK, then obviously we are going into technical differences here but dude, I know 1inch is not a DEX but a DEX aggregator but there you go, you are saying they (and everyone else in the DEX industry including educators) are all using the wrong term.

For me, if they call it a DEX it has evolved. They are already articles talking about DEX using orderbooks (which is what you are thinking of) and DEX using liquidity pools like Uni.

It is a big difference, but they are merely different mechanisms, both are DEX.

An exchange can have as many pairs as they make available. If an exchange only has BTC-fiat, it is still an exchange. Your "token swap" example is just the same in BTC-USD market you can ONLY exchange BTC for USD. All the exchanges talk about trading pairs. And all the "token swaps" talk about swap pairs. I think you will be surprised to learn now "token swaps" have much more capacity to swap between networks (which is why I ask you to look at 1inch) but as you say not for BTC (again to my knowledge) but of course, you can use a regular exchange for interchain assets and even fiat but this is because none of this interaction is on chain. You even have Yobit exchanging with assets that don't even exist, anything is possible offchain:)

I'm sorry, I really think your posts are very good and I enjoyed them a lot here but on this case I think sometimes Bitcoiners like to argue semantics when the rest of the world using those things has moved on and accepted that "token swaps" are also exchanges, with the difference that every exchange (swap) happens on chain in liquidity pools (as opposed to off chain orderbooks), which makes it difficult, but not impossible these days, to manage inter-chain swaps.

P.S. I totally hate defi it's the most toxic and scammy world but we were talking about use case for smart contracts and I see it and accept it even if I don't like it.

There is a big difference between an "exchange" and a "token swap". An exchange (whether decentralized or centralized) is where you can trade any cryptocurrency with almost any other cryptocurrency for example BTC with LTC. A token swap on the other hand is where you can only swap a token for another token. For example there is NO option to swap BTC for WBTC only ETH for WBTC.
This is useless.
Also 1inch is not even an exchange or a token swap, it is a DEX aggregator where it searches other token swap platforms (using the wrong term DEX) and gives the user the best option.

Lack of demand is the correct reason for lack of demand for gambling this way. Most people are fine with centralized gambling where they sign up on a casino's website and gamble there. The rest are just playing around with these platforms like the tokens on ethereum because they have some extra tokens they want to burn.

I was talking about decentralized exchanges though (Sorry if I should say CEX and DEX but I thought smart contract automatically means DEX). You should check out 1inch for example, it does use a smart contract for limit orders on ETH DEX like Uniswap. Those smart contracts were built on as far as I know, Ethereum, or copies from Ethereum.

2. I don't argue that Bitcoin blockchain is better and more secure but I beg to say that it is NOT easier. You can today ask a regular gambler to use a betting smart contract on ETH and he doesn't even need to know blockchain, he just needs to know how to place a bet. I do not think there is an easier way for Bitcoin or LN. The lack of demand sort of proves this.

Now, I am not a Bitcoin hater, it is my where my main beliefs are. I am not even an ETH lover, I only bought it in 2019 after finally admitting that yes, ok they got some things right finally.

I would love to see a single use case.

The two you mentioned here:
1. There are no exchanges using smart contracts, there are only tokens created to let you swap different tokens. For example you can't trade bitcoin versus litecoin using a smart contract on ETH. There is also a much better way of doing this with a decentralized exchange.
2. For gamblers a simple side-chain or a hashed timelocked contract on bitcoin' blockchain itself would do the job a lot easier and much safer. If there is enough demand you could even do it on Lightning Network.

Centralization is a big flaw but yes, for the most part, people don't care and don't know they should care (not to mention the decentralized companies in defi all claiming but hiding how centralized they are like Polkadot).

And it's the same selling pressure with all these APYs that cannot be sustained.

I do disagree that smart contracts have no real world applications though. I think the way limit orders are being programmed without trusting exchanges at least are now very popular, plus betting markets that automatically settle bets. Not a lot of use but when people see these working well I don't see why people wouldn't switch to smart contracts.

It is based on past performance. You see coins with unlimited supply can not keep rising, specially since they have lots of other flaws including security flaws, not just centralization. Specially when they switch to PoS and basically give away free ETH just because you own ETH the sell pressure is going to increase.
Additionally "smart contracts" in the way used by Ethereum ever since 2015 have not had any real world applications, to this day anyone who buys ETH either wants to invest it in an ICO scam or are simply gambling on the price. This model can not be sustained and in long run the price will keep going down as it has been.
It is also highly likely that a better smart contract platform (either another altcoin or a bitcoin side-chain) that simply solves the flaws of ethereum replaces it in near future. That makes ETH obsolete.

Everyone is free to predict the price of Bitcoin, but most people agree the future price of Bitcoin will be very expensive. So as you said, we have
to start holding Bitcoin from now on. Whatever the price of Bitcoin that will be achieved in 2024, the price must be much higher than the current price.
And I don't really agree if the current price at $32k is called a bearish market, because as long as the Bitcoin price is still above $20k I still think
Bitcoin is still in a bullish trend.

On the predictions of btc, I guess that's very high maybe we will cut that at 50% just to range the price at $100k above. With cardano I think $5 to $6 will be enough and if it goes up until $10, that would be a bonus. Let's have bnb the most potential one with a predicted price at $6,000 or higher because more projects coming our was now starting to adopt this platform of bsc.

I'm interested in the above two coins. If you put Ethereum this high above BnB, what is the rational behind it? BnB looks good to get to $10,000 with that Ethereum at $14,136 , I mean you can check the current price for the two and the difference. Also bnb is having more projects and listing on the exchange, that is a good reason for pricing it up to $10,000 and not that you peg it at $2,176.

I used the total market cap data from the past years and some maths on Bear Market vs Bull Market and then averaged out to get a value of $240k for BTC in 2024.

I would like to know how you got the parameters you used in guaging your predictions or is it a loose guess?


The next Bitcoin halving will be in 2024. Halving doesn't stretch, like what you have as from 2024-2026. Halving is every four years. The present one happened in 2020.

Again, we should also put into cognizance the fact that Bitcoin price won't continue on a steady rise till 2024. There's bound to be the bear period before 2024 just like what we witnessed in the last halving and the previous halvings before it. The bears will steep down price and that's healthy correction.

I surely like your speculation for the price of Bitcoin and surely if this is correct it is good to definitely hold Bitcoin right now, but it is too early to predict 2024 Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, and BNB price, it is the year 2021, and right now the price of Bitcoin is pretty bearish right now but the end of this year I think the price would go from an all-time high of $56,000 USD the price might go to $80,000 USD on the momentum the price could go,

Right now the price is at $32,000 Bearish market, but bitcoin eventually returns back to its all-time high price and will surely try and penetrate another all-time high that is for sure.

Not impossible, neither bearish. I was thinking similarly, but closer to the $½ million.

Would you mind explaining me your calculations behind these results? It seems to me as a very random thought. The fact that something is centralized doesn't make its demanding less. I won't comment about ADA & BNB, but as for ETH, judging the historic peaks, I'd speculate it around 0.09-0.14 BTC. No idea the exchange rate in dollars though...

I still can't guess whether this will be right with your prediction or just a conclusion from the total market capitalist in 2024? It's still far I don't really expect more from your prediction but what you say can come true because I know bitcoin's movement is quite close and in 2024 it will coincide with the halving maybe this reaction will happen like this year because it has reached ATH before 3x more than 2017.

I can only judge that bitcoin will continue to grow every year and will experience a big bearish as well so it will continue to contradict that bitcoin 240k in 2024 is far from being a reality.

I am in a board called Economics and a sub-board called Speculation.
I don't see Bitcoin Economics or Speculation written over there. 

Since the last increase in 2017, a number of striking trends have emerged, these trends in 2020 are able to show a more collective Bitcoin price increase , Therefore, the price increase in the coming year in my opinion is a realistic expectation of bitcoin, and now this is a good opportunity for us to keep an eye on Bitcoin developments before the halving day occurs in 2024, I'm sure if the price predictions made are of course based on your high belief in the increase in bitcoin prices after the halving day occurs but of course we should not be too hopeful if it happened and if you look at the experience of the previous halving day I believe that bitcoin will experience a price increase of about 60% of the price before the halving day.

I think you should first know that you are in a board that is intended for speculation about Bitcoin, so it is completely inappropriate to emphasize any other cryptocurrencies here.

I don't think anything about the speculation itself, because there are hundreds of them if I search online - everyone tries to look smart while throwing up big numbers, you might guess, and maybe not. After all, it is stupid to think so much in advance when no one can even say approximately what the price of 1 BTC will be by the end of this year. If it is at least $100k, it may reach $240k by 2024 - and what if all the pessimists' predictions come true, and we slip into a new crypto winter?

That's three years from now ++ and yeah, I think by then 100k should be very easy, assuming there's another rally and assuming also things happen in the regular 2/4 year cycle it always has. I still doubt this year is over. Normally I'm pessimistic about chances of crypto going up but I feel like there wasn't enough drama over the last 6/7 months yet and we usually need that before we head into pure winter.

I also like to believe remember in times of pandemic the price crashed to $5k but look what happened after a year, not only the price recover it reached another all-time high, I'd like to believe that Bitcoin will eventually recover and reach another all-time high, we are halfway of the year, things happen so fast, we could wake up one day with the price on $100k.

In my speculation, bitcoin marketcap alone will worth more than 10 trillion by the times of 2025. Moreover like most other people here, I am too sure about that we have not done with 2021 bullish market yet. So, based on the price levels of 2021 ending, we can easily speculate about where we are going to start the year 2025 (next halving may happen in 2024 and bull market may happen in 2025).

I believe that we are still have fair chances to test $100k before end of this year which may extend up to $280k levels before end of this year. So, it would be too early to speculate about 2024 now itself.