Topic: Market Sentiment (Read 271 times)

Thank you to everyone for their feedback and initial impressions on our software, it really does help us out a lot so thank you.

I'd like to address a couple of points many of you brought up just to perhaps clarify some doubts, since we have been thinking about this project for some time now, and have developed strategies to circumvent some of the stuff you guys mention here.

The most common concern seems to be that it is very difficult to differentiate from spam, artificial hype, fake pump schemes etc. This is all true. However, the way we track social media mentions and sentiment helps us remove most of the spam accounts, bots, etc. In the case of twitter for example, we have many different rules to determine whether we should count that tweet as "real". These exclude tweets that have account follows less than 5, frequent spam reports (twitter notifies us), bot accounts by twitter mandatorily need to have a specific tag in the bio, so we filter out tweets with it, if they follow many reported spam accounts, if they repeatedly copy and paste messages etc. All of these rules add up to getting the most accurate representation online.

It's worth mentioning that the enterprise API twitter has is very robust and they have very thorough guidelines on how to get the most accurate representations. If it was full of spam, it would be pretty much useless, and considering how expensive it is, it wouldn't be good business for them.

The second most common concern is that tracking sentiment isn't a good strategy for investment. While I agree that for Bitcoin and some of the bigger market-cap coins this could be true, for many of the alt-coins where young people like to join in a community and collectively ascribe it value, it's a very useful indicator of how things evolve in the short term. Once we had a working prototype for our software, we ran some correlation tests and price movements from coins on our trending page most of the time correlated with price movements later on in the day with varying degrees of lag. The studies are clear on this (I'll link the ones we read before starting this project below), social media sentiment has a very high correlation with price movements in areas such as the stock market. Of course, this whole project is an experiment on whether the same is true for cryptocurrencies (which IMO are predicated on mostly market sentiment or "hype") but so far, the correlation seems to stand and is quite strong. A lot will improve in the future when we refine our AI more and provide even more accurate representation.

On another note a couple of you mentioned the design looks suspicious. I agree it's not the best, but so far we wanted to provide functionality over anything else. Everything will improve substantially in the future.

I hope I was able to inspire some confidence in our platform, as we believe it could be useful for everyone. We're not saying invest solely on this, but keep it as a valuable tool in your arsenal.

Thanks again everyone, Povilav

Well maybe you just simply a hodler who doesn't care about the outcome of what he is hodling at the long run, you don't care about the technology and innovation on the project which are mostly factors that will determine adoption of the coin, volume increase and the ROI  to your pocket. You can hodl a coin and you don't know that it value has reduced or that an exchange is planning on delisting it and emails sent to your inbox to move out your hodling to another exchange won't be discovered. This kind of hodling is just like either you are investing through someone and just buy to keep for share luck to shine on you. I hope that you start checking your hodling on the exchange that you have it, if it is a shit coin some exchange may pull it down and notice are passed on that too.

Maybe I'm different from many people in terms of relying on analytical indicators. Although I have been in this field for many years, too many analytical factors make me feel very uncomfortable, partly because it can increase or decrease confidence in the market. I'm a long-term investor and don't care much about the factors that go into a planned process, I don't care what people think, I just like it and buy and hold. The opinion of others determines your own psychology is an investment mistake. Additional tools are good but don't rely on it too much, the sharks always know what we think, and the control is always on.

Market sentiments out of the social media tracking isn't gonna give effective outcome. Going through the market we can see more number of cryptocurrencies (apart from the top ones) were promoted through social media bounties. This market trends weren't the real one and can't be connected to the market sentiment. The software tracking of market sentiment can be a reference and not the conclusion to get into investment.

There is a great website that shows greed and fear index which is a little bit more accurate because it is at least showing something that people should probably be more aware about as well. I mean nobody says that you can't make a profit from crypto with these websites, sure there is a chance that these websites could be right as well and you could be making some profit from it but it is not a guaranteed thing neither.

I hope that we will realize that getting help from the tools and so forth will end up with you getting worse and worse personally on your trading talent because you are getting used to using someone else's tool to get trading and that will not allow you to get better.

This is why as an investor then you should really be wise on dealing up with things.Always verify and dont make unnecessary move if you arent still sure because everything could be faked out or hyped.

Market conditions could definitely changed depending on whats the sentiments is circling around its neither on positive or negative vibe then you should really be keen on whats happening around.

Fundamentals might not really be a major thing but we know on how sensitive this market when it comes to trends and news.

Market sentiment is just a collection of outpourings and by no means one of the references that can be taken as a whole. Given the sentiment on social media with a lot of user speculation dominated by a pool of fake accounts, it's clear that this kind of thing will not be accurate with the actual market conditions.

The exception targets various accounts of social media users who are proven to have made price changes. Again, market sentiment obtained from any device can be manipulated.

that what BTC gurus said too. although ETF has billions of volume right when the trading started, the funds are not making the BTC spot market price up.

aparently its kind of a factor for investors to see the market sentiment which could be the basis for deciding to buy on spot market. and its showing on the MAs.

Not disagreeing but I think it was premature for people to write retail investment off (that was even from 2019, gathering more supporters in 2020). That Bitcoin ETF that chalked up over a billion dollars in trading on Day 1? They themselves said it was majority interest from retail players.

And no, I don't think ETF really impacts market but if that's your first taste, maybe you want the real thing later.

Market sentiment based on social media it's not going to do much good with respect to Bitcoin, as the price is being driven up mainly by institutional demand, as can be seen in google trends. I believe retail FOMO will be unleashed at $100k and above, and there we can get into lucubration whether the sentiments seen on social media have any influence or not.

Don’t rely on any of these market sentiment sites. Even that fear and greed one is very unreliable. Sure in hindsight it seems to work but there are times when there is extreme fear and it keeps dropping or extreme greed and it keeps going up.

If you want some fundamentals to trade off, then just use the funding rates for the futures. It doesn’t always work however unless there is a crazy strong trend with BTC they are reliable. Basically when funding is high for the longs then you sell or go short and same is true if it’s vice versa.
Look at the prior funding charts and you will see how reliable the indicator is sometimes.

I don't use market sentiment tracker such as this one. It is hard to rely on this especially if the sources of the sentiment are social media sites. They are not that reliable for me. I don't even trust posts in social media in terms of whether the market is bullish or bearish. There is always bias. People are posting not objectively but subjectively. They will always be bullish of the coins they own. I think it is better to track the crypto market sentiment by following news and developments.

Does market sentiments as a gauge has some weight on it? I think otherwise, probably just another data that we connect the dots and say "oh we are bullish because everyone is bullish", and isn't it the obvious though?

Anyhow, I'm not totally against investors who view this as something that can help them decide. But me personally, I don't use it as a measuring stick, just saying. Probably TA is one of the best, but it has it's own flaws as well.

I seriously started to dislike the "freedom" of this forum a lot. I get that we need more and more messages constantly in order to make this website viable. After all the more people there are here, the more money theymos could charge for the continuation of the website. To be fair with the money he made from back in the day, charging as much as 50 bitcoins at the time, now probably in millions upon millions of dollars, he should be rich already and not even need ads, but yeah sure get more money while you can, why stop at a certain level.

However, maybe we should start to consider not allowing this much obvious spam to happen here neither. Don't get me wrong companies should be able to promote their stuff here, it is the perfect place for it, I really support every company who does promote here. However when it is this low level and looking shady, there is something wrong with it.

This is off topic to this thread. Just create an introductory thread for this if you insist on promoting it.

Honestly, I'm curious on how you will create an algorithm to determine post about crypto on social media. Most of the post there are shill, hype and fake so obviously the result that you will show is not accurate at all. Fear and Greed Index is more appropriate to get the pulse of the mainstream since all data gather was specifically centered on the market sentiment.

social media market sentiment does not change prices, but it is a wrong strategy, and therefore we must stay away from investing in all cryptos even bitcoin that impose noise in social media and not follow it as a trading strategy.

Prices and currencies with small market capacities lead to large changes in price, and tracking news in social media will be wrong. You can improve the program’s work as follows:

Keep track of fake news and misleading tweets.
Searching for unreal projects that pay users.
Create a tracking algorithm, including learning the impact of the news.

As far as Bitcoin market sentiments, I usually used this website:

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

Just to check what's everyone is thinking and feeling at the moment. I'm not into altcoins though, sentiments maybe hard to predict because it is very volatile as compare to bitcoin.

Simply tracking moving averages will tell the majority of sentiment in markets.   Right now we have rising 50 and 200 day averages, mostly BTC is bullish across the year,   Near term we do have a fairly significant pullback indicated by weekly average being negative, with the latest prices forming a ceiling matching the 2 day average.   When it trends up sentiment is generally good, across all time frames this would be the most positive pattern to observe.
  Alt coins expanding some relate to future failure in value as most alternate blockchains cannot easily justify value longer term but that whole subject of debate is a different part of the forum to discuss.

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I guess this should be moved to category Marketplaces - Services.