Mass adoption? Seriously what would price be?

Fakhoury

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Quote from: gentlemand on August 03, 2015, 04:47:07 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on August 03, 2015, 04:43:42 PM

Why do I feel you are becoming bearish, mand ?

I'm still neither. A 50,000 Euro valuation is still a tiny amount in terms of global turnover. The world economy would have to be a smoking wasteland to be small enough to be running on BTC at that value.

Totally agree.

BldSwtTrs

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1 BTC can worth more than 1 million $, holding $ constant.

21 millions * 1 million = 21 trillion $

Total wealth on Earth is around 400 trillion $. If 5% of that worth go to Bitcoin instead of real estate, gold, obligation, shares it's 400 *0.05 = 20 trillion $. BOOM

And that's not even taking into account the flow of wealth, only the wealth stock. Wealth creation is about 100 trillion each year.

misterycoins

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Well technically anything can happen, but let us be realistic on here, there's tons of boat missers with big cash trying to get in BIG into the Bitcoin game.

gentlemand

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Quote from: Fakhoury on August 03, 2015, 04:43:42 PM

Why do I feel you are becoming bearish, mand ?

I'm still neither. A 50,000 Euro valuation is still a tiny amount in terms of global turnover. The world economy would have to be a smoking wasteland to be small enough to be running on BTC at that value.

Fakhoury

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Quote from: gentlemand on July 28, 2015, 10:58:14 AM

Quote from: Furio on July 27, 2015, 11:54:45 PM

I once read an article stating that if mass adoption was a fact and the world economy would run on bitcoin, €50.000 would be a rough estimate.

If you shut down well over 95% of global trade and destroyed even more wealth then that valuation is absolutely spot on.

Why do I feel you are becoming bearish, mand ?

dodgecharger

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Bitcoins fluctuate in value all the time. As more companies start accepting them- this is growing exponentially more people will get into them increasing the market cap. You'll be glad as heck that you were an early investor.

gentlemand

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Quote from: Furio on July 27, 2015, 11:54:45 PM

I once read an article stating that if mass adoption was a fact and the world economy would run on bitcoin, €50.000 would be a rough estimate.

If you shut down well over 95% of global trade and destroyed even more wealth then that valuation is absolutely spot on.

Furio

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I once read an article stating that if mass adoption was a fact and the world economy would run on bitcoin, €50.000 would be a rough estimate.

Wekkel

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yes

I think the value could be bigger than $40k if BTC becomes a universal point of reference (and not necessarily the transaction currency of choice).

Some thoughts on the concept of a stable numeraire: http://www.gata.org/node/8303

SmoothCurves

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1-10 Million dollars per BTC.

Fakhoury

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Quote from: gentlemand on July 27, 2015, 08:16:00 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on July 27, 2015, 08:11:17 PM

Could you link me where Winklevoss brothers stated about $40-50K please ?

Thank you.

That's a regular figure they throw out.

http://mashable.com/2013/12/16/cameron-winklevoss-bitcoin/

Thanks bro

gentlemand

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Quote from: Fakhoury on July 27, 2015, 08:11:17 PM

Could you link me where Winklevoss brothers stated about $40-50K please ?

Thank you.

That's a regular figure they throw out.

http://mashable.com/2013/12/16/cameron-winklevoss-bitcoin/

Fakhoury

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Quote from: futureofbitcoin on July 27, 2015, 08:09:27 PM

Quote from: AgentofCoin on July 26, 2015, 10:59:23 PM

Quote from: nextgencoin on July 26, 2015, 10:47:59 PM

Quote from: AgentofCoin on July 26, 2015, 10:43:41 PM

I think, to answer your question in present terms, super positive price for 1 BTC would be around 5 Million USD.
This number is only based on USA.
If the world began using BTC as its only means of currency exchange, then 15.5 Million USD per 1 BTC.
IMO

Sounds nuts but it's actually way more accurate that winkleloss bros saying it could get to $50,000. I mean Coinbase CEO is now saying it could become the reserve currency. In the eye of a currency collapse storm which we are heading toward its not that crazy to think people would reach for the one currency that actually worked.

When the Wink Bros say $50k USD, I think they are thinking just a 1 Billion Market Cap.
That is the number as a payment processor, like VISA, Mastercard, etc (combined).

If "Dollar Collapses" or the World uses BTC as its collective global currency system/supply, then I think 5 to 15 Million USD.

I could be very wrong, I'm no economist nor mathematician.
I'm just thinking dooms day scenario for world, but most positive outcome for BTC.

EDIT:
CORRECTIONS: The 1 Billion Market Cap, that I stated above, should really be around 700 Billion Market Cap.
CORRECTIONS: All Credit Card Companies (USA) combined in 2012 was 7+ Trillion Market Cap.
CLARIFICATION: When I calculated my "5 to 15 Million USD" above, I was using 2014 USA Wealth to 2014 World Wealth Stats.
CLARIFICATION: 2014 World Wealth = 264 Trillion USD divided by 21,000,000 BTC = 12.5 Million USD

This is a common pitfall in the bitcoin community. You can't replace total wealth all with bitcoins. There isn't a dollar for every single "dollar of networth" in existence.

For example, even if bitcoins replace all fiat currencies, bitcoin cannot replace your house. Or your table. Or your car. All of those are included in wealth.

So there is no way bitcoins will be worth as much as the total wealth of the world, it's just not possible.

I would say the MOST optimistic scenario, bitcoin could potentially be worth 1 million dollars each, present value. But I would say the chances of that happening are very, very, very, very low. The $40,000 winklevoss estimate is comparatively a lot more realistic.

Could you link me where Winklevoss brothers stated about $40-50K please ?

Thank you.

futureofbitcoin

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Quote from: AgentofCoin on July 26, 2015, 10:59:23 PM

Quote from: nextgencoin on July 26, 2015, 10:47:59 PM

Quote from: AgentofCoin on July 26, 2015, 10:43:41 PM

I think, to answer your question in present terms, super positive price for 1 BTC would be around 5 Million USD.
This number is only based on USA.
If the world began using BTC as its only means of currency exchange, then 15.5 Million USD per 1 BTC.
IMO

Sounds nuts but it's actually way more accurate that winkleloss bros saying it could get to $50,000. I mean Coinbase CEO is now saying it could become the reserve currency. In the eye of a currency collapse storm which we are heading toward its not that crazy to think people would reach for the one currency that actually worked.

When the Wink Bros say $50k USD, I think they are thinking just a 1 Billion Market Cap.
That is the number as a payment processor, like VISA, Mastercard, etc (combined).

If "Dollar Collapses" or the World uses BTC as its collective global currency system/supply, then I think 5 to 15 Million USD.

I could be very wrong, I'm no economist nor mathematician.
I'm just thinking dooms day scenario for world, but most positive outcome for BTC.

EDIT:
CORRECTIONS: The 1 Billion Market Cap, that I stated above, should really be around 700 Billion Market Cap.
CORRECTIONS: All Credit Card Companies (USA) combined in 2012 was 7+ Trillion Market Cap.
CLARIFICATION: When I calculated my "5 to 15 Million USD" above, I was using 2014 USA Wealth to 2014 World Wealth Stats.
CLARIFICATION: 2014 World Wealth = 264 Trillion USD divided by 21,000,000 BTC = 12.5 Million USD

This is a common pitfall in the bitcoin community. You can't replace total wealth all with bitcoins. There isn't a dollar for every single "dollar of networth" in existence.

For example, even if bitcoins replace all fiat currencies, bitcoin cannot replace your house. Or your table. Or your car. All of those are included in wealth.

So there is no way bitcoins will be worth as much as the total wealth of the world, it's just not possible.

I would say the MOST optimistic scenario, bitcoin could potentially be worth 1 million dollars each, present value. But I would say the chances of that happening are very, very, very, very low. The $40,000 winklevoss estimate is comparatively a lot more realistic.

ssmc2

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Quote from: RodeoX on July 27, 2015, 12:40:06 PM

Quote from: Kprawn on July 27, 2015, 01:34:03 AM

This will never happen with Bitcoin.... Governments and banks have been working together for years, and they manipulate the value of money through control. They will never relinquish control over that.

If fiat collapse, the banks would have a Plan B and the governments will enforce it onto it's people. The banks are already working on their own ripp off version of the Blockchain.

They will have a centralized Blockchain solution, controlled and manipulated by the Reserve bank, and they are owned by the banks. The people will become the puppets and they will control the strings.

It's been like that for centuries, why would it change now? Satoshi has given them a new toy.... and they will use it for sure. Ripple...ripple...ripple.. Sad

You make it sound like the banks can do something about it. I assure you that they can't. I ONLY use bitcoin online. For me the war is long over and the banks lost. Banks are free to have their own alt chains, that's fine. But I will never use them and no bank nor government can do a damn thing about it.

WORD

RodeoX

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The revolution will be monetized!

Quote from: Kprawn on July 27, 2015, 01:34:03 AM

This will never happen with Bitcoin.... Governments and banks have been working together for years, and they manipulate the value of money through control. They will never relinquish control over that.

If fiat collapse, the banks would have a Plan B and the governments will enforce it onto it's people. The banks are already working on their own ripp off version of the Blockchain.

They will have a centralized Blockchain solution, controlled and manipulated by the Reserve bank, and they are owned by the banks. The people will become the puppets and they will control the strings.

It's been like that for centuries, why would it change now? Satoshi has given them a new toy.... and they will use it for sure. Ripple...ripple...ripple.. Sad

You make it sound like the banks can do something about it. I assure you that they can't. I ONLY use bitcoin online. For me the war is long over and the banks lost. Banks are free to have their own alt chains, that's fine. But I will never use them and no bank nor government can do a damn thing about it.

gentlemand

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Quote from: Kprawn on July 27, 2015, 01:34:03 AM

This will never happen with Bitcoin.... Governments and banks have been working together for years, and they manipulate the value of money through control. They will never relinquish control over that.

You're thinking too first world.

There are no shortage of governments right now who do such a dismal job of managing their local currency that their populations do everything possible to abandon their national currency and use more stable ones like the dollar or euro.

The exchange rates have also disconnected and what you get on the street bears no resemblance to what the government wants. I'm sure those in power would dearly love to be able to control the wealth of their population but if you offer them shit then they'll ride right over you.

In places like India much more value is placed on gold in private hands than it is in the west. In most places tax evasion is a national sport. In most places government being a corrupt hindrance is the norm and best avoided. In the West there's just more tinsel and everyone has a vested interest to keep it afloat.

Once people en masse around the world start to comprehend what crypto can actually do for them then some very interesting things will happen.

RodeoX

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The revolution will be monetized!

Seriously, no one here has a clue. Not that you wont get a bunch of confident answers.

Denker

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Quote from: 1Referee on July 27, 2015, 06:57:25 AM

Quote from: Amph on July 27, 2015, 02:06:20 AM

the global gdp is 77T so we can say around 1Q this put one satoshi from 0.1 to 1 dollar and one bitcoin from 10M to 100M, if we were to compare it to the global economy and not just usd

but i believe that mass adoption can happen much early, there is the possibility that eveyrone that would ever be interested would use bitcoin without necessarely reaching 7B people which is impossible

at that point the price would be fairly lower probably no more than 100k-1M

Keep dreaming

Nothing wrong with having a fantasy, but this is far beyond that. Bitcoin is and will never be more than an alternative.

Really? Do you have a crystal ball which predicts the future? Congratz!

Elwar

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Viva Ut Vivas

Here is a good calculator to let you see what the price will be as Bitcoin starts to take a foothold in various markets.

Topic: Mass adoption? Seriously what would price be? (Read 2147 times)