Topic: Massive drop in Hashrate (50%) ~100 ExH/S (Read 755 times)

I have mentioned many times that we are unlikely to double the difficulty anytime soon and since last year my protection has been that difficulty will go up slowly unlike the common thought, but have I ever thought about going back to 14T? not even in my wildest dreams, if anyone told me this was going to happen a few months back I would have thought they were full of it.

yeah i agree it was probably based on a short time period and the network was a bit lucky.

I think 175-182 is a better number for alltime high.

Amazing we have  another drop over 10%. It is early maybe we comeback since the gear to bring us way back up is out there offline.

Just noticed this number - I suggest you tell coinwarz they got it wrong.

The max Difficulty was 25046487590083.3 which means 179EH

I guess they looked at short term unreliable values that are expected to vary a lot, no doubt during that same diff change they would have seen much lower short term values as well as that high short term value, but ignored the low ones that average it out.

That was also a 21.53% diff jump to 25T in the middle of two big negative diff drops (-12.61% and -15.97%) so even 179EH could have been an over estimate.

Well would you have thought the diff would be 14.4 and dropping to 12 and change.😊

It goes to show us all Mining ⛏ can be very unpredictable!

I agree, it does seem like it has been poorly explained judging by the number of people who talked about it in the last adjustment, since this is a new event to most people including myself the >25% drop was very famous, I saw many folks talk about how were are going to pass the maximum change allowed, which does prove your point that most articles falsely (and hopefully not intentionally) explain it as a max drop as if it's 25%, I think it would be a lot better if they get rid of the 25% or 1/4 wording and just stick to 75% and %300 because

1- most people prefer to work with multiplication than division
2- most people care about the drop rather than the difficulty/target figure itself.

I suppose the fellow miners would prefer to hear they are getting say 50% more rewards than say the difficulty is going to drop to 7T, the latter is somehow very difficult to reflect on your mining earnings.

You are correct, based on my reading of the relevant code, what actually happened, and the relevant wiki articles, the correct way of explaining maximum changes in the difficulty is that the difficulty can be no less than 25% of the previous difficulty, not that it can change downwards by no more than 25%.

The difference is a single word but it makes a big difference.

1.2 gh in ltc on old L3+ gear burns 2000 watts

it earns 22-23 usd  in LTC/Doge pre power so 23/2 =  11.50 usd per 1000 watts


the new L7 does 9.5 gh or 174-182 usd in LTC/Doge so 182/3.3 = 55.15 usd per 1000 watts


Now the s17pro set to vanish firmware can do 40 th at 1000 watts 40 th is 9.20 per 1000 watts toss in the new diff

and do $9.20 x 1.27 = $11.69 per 1000 watts.

Now all major mined coins BTC, (LTC+DOGE),ETH

dropped in hash bigly (whether you like or hate Trump bigly is a cool for to use)

---

---

BTC dropped from

191.4 on May 9 to 84.5 July 1

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart

---

---

LTC/Doge
 LTC 396 June 7  178 July 1
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/litecoin/hashrate-chart
Doge 446 June 10 224 July 1
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/dogecoin/hashrate-chart

---

---

Eth
687 may 20   527 July 1
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/ethereum/hashrate-chart

---

---

Notice Eth is the least fucked up most likely because it is the most widespread out of china. It is easy to own this piece of gear in a home

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/hp-omen-gaming-desktop-amd-ryzen-7-5800x-16gb-memory-nvidia-geforce-rtx-3060-ti-1tb-ssd-jet-black/6454567.p?skuId=6454567. mine while you sleep and game and use it as a pc. 


So the hashrate was fairly stable compared to BTC or LTC/DOGE

I am thinking if and when gear goes online if Bitmain still exists and has not been imprisoned by China they will be adding on LTC L7 ahead of any other gear.

If I can read the major hash rates on the 4 biggest pow networks so can they.

Should be very interesting to see shit come back on line.

Remember L7 is a killer beastly improvement over L3
and Their eth asic is like 30x 3080 cards.

I like to think there is a great silver lining to all of this.

BTC is stupidly undervalued!

It will go over 70 k this year more like 95-110k.

That's a good point, we all know there are a few people around here who can't stand the sight of comments talking about anything else that is not bitcoin even if it directly affects bitcoin, I am all about bitcoin and I don't like most of those other coins but if it's going to affect BTC in one way or the other, it's always worth mentioning.

The L7 will keep many folks away from mining BTC, which will help in keeping the difficulty low for us, do I care what happens to LTC? hell NO!, is that good for BTC miners? hell ya.



As long as our gears are making coins, who cares about us?

https://www.npr.org/2021/06/29/1011269025/photos-the-pacific-northwest-heatwave-is-melting-power-cables-and-buckling-roads

It's far above normal, but it not just that. There is a difference between hitting 95F for an hour or two in the highest point of the day and then dropping down or like it is now with it just sitting at that temperature for hours and hours.


I'm the opposite. I can take the heat, but the cold just makes me ache. I hate putting on layers and layers of clothing just to go outside for 10 minutes.

Here in NY, it's not been terrible. It's just fact that it's the end of June, and this is the middle of August kind of heat.


Why would they even bother to convert ltc and some other coins to BTC?
They can sit on it. They should have more then enough BTC to keep paying out what they have to.

---

It's going to be interesting to see what happens over the next few months. Will the big farms that are not part of the miner manufacturers come back online or will they start selling off their gear in with the plan to have money available for when the new more efficient gear comes online.

-Dave

I'm not in a hot place like Mikeywith is, but still, 90F/32C (?) sounds like something usual for the start of the summer, the temperature in both Vienna and Prague have already hit that mark, and it's not July yet.  I just look at the average temperatures for Seattle and from what I see there have been quite a lot of times when it went past that so if you're building your farm with that little tolerance....

I'm more concerned about the dust than the heat, the last dust storm that managed to pass the Alps left such fine dust on everything, I'm seriously thinking of adding some Stihl blower filters from the old gear around the house to clean what's going inside once more.


The gear cooling might be badass but I think your own body cooling is far more intriguing, I can easily deal with -25C, but when it goes above 35-57C I turn into a useless mass of precooked jelly.

That is smoking hot.
We did 97-98 f.  today.
Which is hot for us.

the asic room did pretty good.

Some downclocks. braiins has been very good at helping the gear stay up.

Allow me to praise myself, I did not have to shut down a single gear while temps here been ranging between 104F to 116.6F aka 40c to 47c even at night, many schools and businesses did shut down this week because of this, my gears on the other hand which are mostly S9s are mining non-stop, I suppose I got some pretty bad-ass cooling going on.

found some good comparison info from 8 hours ago. this show hash at less than 144 blocks a day bu better than -25.66% pace.
It is a small slice of the scale and variance could mean we are still off more than -25.65%






I know no-one wants to talk about other algos but

bitmain has 3 cloud deals
Bitmain mines more than 1 algo

so when they go back online they will pick which Algorthims  go online first.

This give them a lot of very interesting choice.

ie do they deploy L7+ units over s19pros

and buy BTC with LTC and Doge earnings.

ie do they deploy Eth asics

and buy BTC with Eth earnings.

Remember they are a very large powerful business.

Making business choices like this are pretty easy.

L7+ gear destroys the profits of Any and all sha 256 gear on a $ per watt basis

Eth asic gear buries the the profits of any and all sha 256 gear on a $ per watt basis.

I know people hate this info but it is what it is.


https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/ethereum/hashrate-chart
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/dogecoin/hashrate-chart
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/litecoin/hashrate-chart

Yes it does, small units yes are days or at most a couple of weeks.

Larger units, can easily take months and months. Unless you have a large amount of money to throw around. This is not even a friend of a friend thing. *I* know 2 places, both customers of the company I work for that had to have a 20MWA transformers replaced. Both took 120+ days between PSEG telling them they had to buy new ones and the delivery. And they were ordered within hours of the go-ahead since the issue was known. Could have had a pair of 10s in within a month or less. But the larger ones, nope.

*Yes you can get used ones, or non "name brand" ones, or imported ones for less. Good luck getting insured or an electrical inspector to sign off on it if you put those in.
And that is what causes people to think you can get them sooner. There are a lot of used / refurbished ones out there that are 100% fine. Ford can put them in their factories since Ford is responsible to Ford and a Ford electrician signs off on it and they are insured by some company they can boss around. Dave's customer in a small industrial building whos unit was failing when hitting 80% got no choice. They had to get new.

But, back to the hashrate drop. Due to the heat hitting the US Pacific NW I know there are some places that cannot keep up with cooling so they are shutting off miners during the day. If you based your cooling on 90F as max sustained outside temperature, with 95F as a limited daytime hours temperature and it's been hitting 100+ every day for hours and hours, yes you might be shutting some things off before your cooling system tells you it's going on vacation.  So there is some loss from there too.

-Dave

Well -


But 74.1511% simply needs tracking

in 12 hours see if it stays at 74.1511% or shifts to 75-76%

Variance plays less of a factor at this point.

I think but am not sure that the 74-76% Number has stayed that way after every 12 hours for the last 5 days

the actual number behind 583.55 has grown but of course it does not reflect  %. so if it grows to 586 in 12 hours the 74.1511% will move closer to 75%

I posted the details of that the other day here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5307087.260
Limits are +300% and -75%

Ok let's just pretend there are enough previous factories ready to host nearly a million mining gear.


I have a strong feeling you are wrong, based on this code which enforces the difficulty adjustment limit


It means the difficulty adjustment can be anything equals or less then 75% to the downside.

So for simplicity, a 10T difficulty can change to any number between 2.5 and 40, unless i am reading code wrong which is unlikely but i got old anyway.

I am not sure I am understanding what you are asking.

Each difficulty period, the difficulty cannot change by more than a factor of 4. This means the difficulty cannot increase by more than 400%, nor drop by more than 25% from one difficulty period to the next. This means that if it took five weeks to find 2016 blocks, the difficulty would only drop by 25%. All else being equal, if this were to happen, it would take about 3.75 weeks to find the next 2016 blocks, so the difficulty would decrease by an additional 25% at the end of the following difficulty period.

Also, hash rate seems it might have picked back up a bit ...

Well, if you throw enough money at it, it could happen sooner, but this assumes that every future mining farm has to start building now for that to happen which isn't happening, as far as I know, we are talking about re-locating a few hundred thousands of mining gears, building the infrastructure for that is going to take a lot of money and time.

My guess is that most new mining farms outside of China will be owned by the Chinese themselves, judging by the gear prices and the current supply, there does not seem to be a lot of panic, it seems like most miners are still holding on to their gears and probably are already searching for a new home.

The problem is, it isn't just a matter of moving to a country with a cheap power rate, most of those countries are corrupted or don't have enough power, to begin with, the rest can be either hard to move to due to regulation and shit or are not so crypto-friendly, with all the carbon footprint b.s that has been going on, moving these gears won't be easy and I am pretty positive that the majority of hashrate that left will not show up till next year at best.

The only expectation would be BTC going to 100k-200k, demand on mining gears rises everywhere and those many gears get divided between small miners into small batches rather than whales shifting their operations, but as it stands right now, most of those gears are "homeless".