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Topic: Me=Noob in a bubble -> no problem or am i missing something here? (Read 2160 times)

donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
Of course the price can still drop but people seem to be expecting it. Why? What signs point to it happening? Is it just the fiat mentality people can't let go of or is there something more to it?

Do you generally expect assets to continually double in shorter and shorter timeframes?  The chart is starting to look rather parabolic.  Not saying it is going to crash here but if i continues to grow the daily growth it is the likelihood of a crash increases.  

One can simultaneously believe in the long term possibility of Bitcoin and also believe the exchange rate has come too far too fast and look for a correction.  Ironically enough people being cautious about the possibility of a correction can slow the bubble and makes a correction less likely. 
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
Of course the price can still drop but people seem to be expecting it. Why? What signs point to it happening? Is it just the fiat mentality people can't let go of or is there something more to it?
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
Not clear on why there would be a crash. We have more than one big exchange now, big names coming on board, chinese doing their chinese thing. In order for bitcoin to become a real currency with meaningful economic impact it will have to grow massively in value. What am I missing?

About 1.5M USD per day just to sustain these prices.
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
Not clear on why there would be a crash. We have more than one big exchange now, big names coming on board, chinese doing their chinese thing. In order for bitcoin to become a real currency with meaningful economic impact it will have to grow massively in value. What am I missing?

Still doesn't mean it can't grow too quickly and correct.   If it was certain that Bitcoin is going to $10,000 with no drops on the way and then forever remain above $10,000 .... well it would ALREADY be $10,000.

Just because Bitcoin ends up much larger in the future doesn't mean there can't be crashes along the way.   Hell you should almost COUNT on there being multiple more crashes on the way.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
Not clear on why there would be a crash. We have more than one big exchange now, big names coming on board, chinese doing their chinese thing. In order for bitcoin to become a real currency with meaningful economic impact it will have to grow massively in value. What am I missing?
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
I haven't seen even a single real crash in bitcoin history yet, but only massive long lasting bear traps.


True dat!
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
Honest 80s business!
This is not like the previous bubble, the market has expended recently like never before
what are you saying? new paradigm? never gonna see these prices again?
donator
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
I haven't seen even a single real crash in bitcoin history yet, but only massive long lasting bear traps.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
Never sell during the crash! That's when you be buyin'  Grin
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
selling over time is always a good idea, especially selling small amounts when the price rises sharply.

But I would never sell all at once. That is silly.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1131
This is not like the previous bubble, the market has expended recently like never before
hero member
Activity: 763
Merit: 500
google "fibbonacci retracement" -> http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp

once you know where the end of the run-up is, this could become helpful.
full member
Activity: 164
Merit: 100
Gone for a minute now back again
Bear circle jerk in here.  Funny how we're always "going back to $100", which is really just an arbitrary amount..  but it "feels" right.. right?  Lol
It probably "feels right" because that's the value around which the prices have oscillated for the last 7 months. I bet there were many comments saying the $12 price felt "just right" in the first months of 2013...

If only I had noticed that earlier...
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
Personally I think the chances of a sustained crash before $480-$500 are close to 0. $100 higher than where we are right now - yea, then I'll start worrying a bit.

Depends how fast we get there.

I have no faith in the speculators to do anything smooth and easy though. After all 10% of them make lots of money on the volatility (so 100% embrace it).

For the fun of it, I've taken a couple bitdimes and put them on bitfinex.  I've been playing "buy the ATH".  Every time there is an ATH, I take a small position(fuck max leverage) and then close it for a small profit.  I keep a tight stop and so far I've banked 15% profits to btc with 4 positions over two days.  No losses yet, but like I said, keep a stop loss.  And be aware that your stop might execute lower than it is set if there is a sudden move.  Slippage can be a bitch in this market, although things seem to be better now that the market is more distributed. 
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 4801
Thanks so much DannyHamilton !

I guess i'll try to ride sell at the high point of the bubble with my wealth of 2 bitcoins - and miserably fail and learn from this for the next bubble Smiley

For real.. late buying into a bubble is really bad for my sleep cause i am afraid of the 7hours i am away from the computer.

Impossible to predict:

January 1 2013 Bitcoin was at $14, it ran up to $266 by April 10, then crashed to $100 in 7 hours finally bottoming out around $50 on April 16.

Does that mean:
October 1 2013 Bitcoin was at $140, it will run up to $2660 by January 10, then crash to $1000 in 7 hours bottoming out around $500 on January 16?

Huh

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but if it happens that way, then you aren't late buying into this bubble.  You'd still be buying below the point where it will bottom out.  If that's true, then you'd still make a profit even if you sell at the very bottom of the bubble burst.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
Personally I think the chances of a sustained crash before $480-$500 are close to 0. $100 higher than where we are right now - yea, then I'll start worrying a bit.
full member
Activity: 159
Merit: 100
Just remember: he who panics first panics best.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
Just bought at $355. Don't think any serious correction, except bear traps, will happen under $500.
Chinese bulls are unstoppable.

Yes.  There were some serious dumps last night that tried to cause a crash and it was just a blip on the radar.  The price did stagnate a bit because of it (the price was on a wild tear before that happened) but that make me even less confident that we will see any prices below $250 again.  I have always been bullish though, but as more people want to buy bitcoin there will be more with a price in mind they are willing to jump in at and are just waiting for it to go there.  For some that will be as high as $300 now.
legendary
Activity: 1168
Merit: 1000
Bear circle jerk in here.  Funny how we're always "going back to $100", which is really just an arbitrary amount..  but it "feels" right.. right?  Lol
member
Activity: 72
Merit: 10
To get the maximum value you have to sell while the price is still going up. Selling during a flash crash is almost impossible be it because of lags or psychologically. There will be no plateau at the top the price trend will just go from straight up to straight down. No early warning signs in a real bubble.
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