Topic: Mempool Observer Topic - page 43. (Read 20342 times)

Except for some minor details:
- minimum income per Th/s in the last 6 months was 5 cents 44 on the 17 of October
- Viabtc is showing right now 9.88 cents per th/s, half of that would be 4.96 , so a full 10% off.
This is revenue
- the hashrate on the last point of earning in the last 6 months was 240Exahash, now it's around 680Exahash.

Everything under s19xp will stop producing anything worth more than their scrap value at 6 cents/kwh, at 6 cents kwh all s19 including the first 90 the model was still viable in terms of ROI back in November!

But yeah, let's not listen to actual miners like Phil who is considering shutting down, let's just split things in two and say everything will be fine!


One tiny detail, the revenue gets halved, the profit might get....axed!  

Fees back to ~30sat/vb , there is simply no demand despite ordinals to keep them higher!

Miners at some point have quite a good profit, as you say x2 or more, but after a certain period, they would have to spend most of that profit on new hardware to stay at least on x1 profit. That business model is still quite twisted for me.

majority of miners are asic farms that dont day play trading to ascertain profits. they buy hardware and electric contract in bundles of 2 years and they mine throughout that period and then account the rewards vs costs to calculate the next 2 year hardware life-cycle
(this is one reason why the ATH happen after a halving and the push doesnt happen at the halving, because the profitability accounting doesnt happen on halving day, but afterwards)

its also been ascertained and explained
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.63933800
that the first half of 2024 is a 2x profit. and at the halving margins will return to the level of 6 months ago when miners were earning half as much as now.. so not many will be jumping ship on halving event

as for runes. well most people have been through 3 cycles of junk metadata fake NFT so the amount of buyers of these newest junk wont be fooled a third time so the spam should not last as long. hopefully spam victims wised up to ordinals then further wised up to brc and not willing to pay the scammers a third time. so hopefully the income scammers use as fee's dries up quicker and they stop spamming sooner

Halving is going to impact Mempool for sure.
There will be two mechanisms:

• The reduced block reward will send many miners off the market, so the hash rate will drop, and with a lagging difficulty adjustment, this will cause a slowdown in block production.
• The RUNE protocol will be launched, and a flurry of new nonmonetary use of the blockchain will be enabled. Competition for the block space will then increase.

It does look like that the Bitcoin network is again getting spammed by those BRC20 tokens. However, I do not have any source to prove that it is the reason. For now many speculations surround this problem, blaming it on halving events and that it is the effect of global politics. Do anyone here believe that it is the issue?

Such as the open attack of Iran on Israel and the repatriation of Israel which will be responsible for changing the dynamics of the energy sector.  I still think it is all about halving events but I do think this sudden spike in transaction price might be related to whales trying to again manipulate the market. Do you guys believe in what I wrote or there is something else in your mind?

Even the testnet is nowadays congested: https://mempool.space/testnet.

388,752 TXs, what's being tested there, lol.

Edit: I see  : https://mempool.space/testnet/tx/3073860d17c1202b2473f5293cf7e29fdc0cf56d2175ba1b98adcfabd430da03

Yeah, I miss him too.

I added all possible types of rules and exceptions available but it doesn't work :/

I made a few changes now, let's see if it comes back later.

I will focus in solving this issue in the next week.

bitmover, have the attacks on your site calmed down or is CloudFlare absorbing them well?
It seems to me that it looks good now, maybe you could make an inclusion for the FeeBuddy bot, I started to miss it and the situation with fees is quite dynamic these days.

you asked about the fee's of these high fee sessions.. so im talking about the funding origins of the fee's that can afford to do these high fee's annoyances. not the data used

i have not looked into caseys version(his set of junk). as caseys version as you show is not active (going by what you say)
but the scammer group that use caseys previous project curations to make their own sets of scam stuff are already active and setting up and promoting the next project. it seems its related to some BOB spice subnetwork being promoted that will be playing about with runes, they are currently gathering up scam value from their previous scam and shifting value around spending alot of the scam money as fee's

basically these spam sessions of these last couple years are all related to scammer groups selling junk and using the victimised income to spam more junk projects when previous ones die out(low victim count) using high fee's to set their projects up .. continue till death their scams and to promote the next one

https://www.theheldreport.com/p/bitcoin-runes-explainer

scammers with alot of money from victims of last years spammed meme junk called 'ordinals' are now scamming via spamming with their next project of junk tokens called 'runes'

they know they cannot put their scammed value into a regulated CEX to convert to fiat(kyc fear). they dont care about the value they scammed as it was "free money" for them (very low cost to create the junk they sold to idiot victims). so they dont care about the coin they accumulated, so they have no fear of spending it as high fee to spam the network with their next scam..

these scam junk projects die when victims stop buying them and then when the scammers see people are not buying their junk token they stop spamming it and start a new version of junk to promote new scam.

those promoting these junk promotions and wanting them to go viral and not stopped are usually associated or part of the scammer/spammer crew

the best way to socially stop them is to tell people that they are scams and not to buy into it to stop fuelling scams/spam. and then highlight those who advertise, hype, promote these scams as being associated with scammers

Now what happened in the past couple of days that the mempool is overloaded and we again are facing the high transaction fee. I hope there is not again any Ordinals hype coming again to result in such a situation as we had it a month to two before. This is not because of miners shutting down or the halving effect.
Seeing such stats doesn't look good as many people including myself will stop transacting with Bitcoin until the fees become normal again but still there are times when you have to send receive bitcoin and accept whatever is the current transaction fee.

Wow. 1.04 GB mempool, 128 sat/vb low priority, 12 sat/vb no priority and anything less than 5.6 sat/vb is being purged. I'm done transacting this week.  

Here's an interesting fact: Monero network is also congested: https://xmrchain.net/txpool. More than 10k transactions in mempool, and it's growing like a spam attack. Do we have any information regarding this? If it continues like that, Monero will soon exceed Bitcoin's block size limit.  

Any idea what caused the recent fee spike?

https://mempool.space/block/000000000000000000013412024e8979a0e0c8fb22aaa5fb7b099feedd1991f9

Up to 280 sats/vB.

I'm afraid it's the users being torn a new a-hole, not miners... miners love high fees, especially with the halving being imminent.

Regarding halving, it's always the same discussion every 4 years.

Mining (in terms of purchasing power/USD valuation) becomes more and more profitable. It definitely is more profitable today compared to the 50 BTC era, there's no question about that.

Hashing competition means that older ASICs (higher nanometers) become less competitive. Lower-nanometer ASICs will remain competitive for the foreseeable future.

I don't worry about the miners' income. Even when the block subsidy will be a few sats in the far future, every transaction will cost a minimum of $1000 (in today's purchasing power, not when a Big Mac will cost $1000 ).

The last halving went a bit unnoticed due to COVID craziness, but the same dynamics applied back then. BTC was worth 4 digits...

Some people will disagree, but the increasing hashrate/competition drives the BTC price higher as time goes by.

Why? Because miners are forced to spend more money on ASICs & electricity, therefore they must sell their BTC for a higher price.

There's a reason BTC was dirt cheap back in 2009-2010... it's because with low amounts of electricity and a CPU/GPU you could produce tons of bitcoins.

In 5 years from now the BTC network will probably have 10 times the hashrate compared to today, but it also won't fall below 6 digits.

Economics 101

yep november was $35k.. but 6 months ago it was UNDER $35k 12th october was $26k
which is if we take $35k/86*57 is about the $24k equivelent. so cost vs market is still in scale

so the situation of 6 months ago of 57t at market of $24k is similar to a 86t at $35k

also majority of miners plan not by the day, they pre buy/audit their accounts on a 1-2 year bases and buy up electric contracts and hardware for a 2 year lifespan so they mine constantly throughout.. its just a few hobbyists that plan by the day/week that are the weak hands that jump at the slightest market movement
but it would only need the market to stay above/around $72k+ after halving to be similar situation to 6 months ago.. and they were not crying about anal pain or poverty

i wouldnt say torn, just stretched a little

Well actually Nov 2023 coins were 35k but the diff was not 86t.

it was 62t.

So a 70k which would be equal to 35k after the ½. needs to drop by 62/86 due to the diff increase.

so miners will have really torn a-holes soon.

Another thing, even if half the miners closed down, which I agree with franky they are likely not going to be shutting down in large portions.  Maybe we won't even lose 10% of them, unless the BTC price goes back down to $50k or perhaps lower.  None the less, how does fewer miners affect how many transactions are processed?  The question of how many transactions for normies are being processed likely has to do with if there is any space left for them after the "higher paying" transactions get processed first.

And, I don't claim to know what might be the latests rush for blockspace that seemed to have started around Monday-ish (4-ish days ago).. and has been pretty steady since.

the halving wont kill off the miners. the spot price has already and will look after miners
in short mining had no issues 6 months ago at 6.25btc for <$218.75k (btc was under $35k 6 months ago)
even if 1btc is still $70k next month.. 3.125btc will be $218.75k

miners were not screaming poverty 6 months ago where 1btc was under $35k/btc

And we're back in business..



Over 90sat/vb for next block, back to $10 per simple tx.
I suppose I don't have to mention the culprit, right?   

Now throw maybe a 10% capacity decrease because of the halving as some miners might shut down and it's going to get uglier.

BTC closely follows nature's laws.

If parasites exist in nature to suck blood out of big animals, then why shouldn't digital parasites exist in the BTC ecosystem?