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Topic: Metcalfe's Law: Bitcoin Price and Adoption Analysis for the Future - page 4. (Read 14813 times)

sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
I've been analyzing further.  When we hit the vertical stage of the adoption S curve, rate of adoption will go exponential.  Metcalfe will go super-exponential at that point, along with price.

It's an illusion. S curve has no vertical stage, just like an exponential curve doesn't have it. The rate of adoption is already (and had always been) exponential, that's why it looks like straight line on the log-scale chart.

No.  The rate of adoption is currently linear.  The Metcalfe value is exponential.  That is the number of unique addresses used per day, squared.  Vertical is an expression.  The middle of an S curve looks nearly vertical.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
Who's there?
I've been analyzing further.  When we hit the vertical stage of the adoption S curve, rate of adoption will go exponential.  Metcalfe will go super-exponential at that point, along with price.

It's an illusion. S curve has no vertical stage, just like an exponential curve doesn't have it. The rate of adoption is already (and had always been) exponential, that's why it looks like straight line on the log-scale chart.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
can you explain metcalfe?
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5380
Just speaking as a consumer, if I can buy bitcoin without fees and spend it at merchants that provide a better discount than my credit cards' 1% reward points

This and this.  If these two things happen, then the late adopter mass consumers will eventually get won over.  If not, then it's doubtful, sadly.  Today bitcoin still remains a very inconvenient and costly way to pay for shit.
full member
Activity: 195
Merit: 100
Sounds good, I'm hoping services like Circle (if they ever send me that invite I requested) will help quite a bit with mainstream adoption. Just speaking as a consumer, if I can buy bitcoin without fees and spend it at merchants that provide a better discount than my credit cards' 1% reward points, then I'll ditch the cards and switch to bitcoin and gift cards bought with bitcoin. I'm sure there are a ton of people out there who would also switch if they start seeing these discounts pop up.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
I've been analyzing further.  When we hit the vertical stage of the adoption S curve, rate of adoption will go exponential.  Metcalfe will go super-exponential at that point, along with price.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
We have now hit an all time high for Bitcoin adoption, and it looks to continue its upward trend.  As you can see, Bitcoin's price is heavily correlated with the Metcalfe's Law value of Unique Addresses ^2.  I see no signs of this correlation changing, nor of adoption slowing.  This implies a continuation of the exponential rise in Bitcoin's price.  Sometimes adoption leads price, and sometimes price leads adoption.  You can see this if you analyze the long-term trend in the top chart.  At this point it looks like adoption is going to lead price.



Here is the chart zoomed into the right side of the chart for better analysis:


Edit: Updated 9/8/2014 with latest data.
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