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Topic: Miner break even price points. Do you think this will effect the market? - page 2. (Read 2701 times)

staff
Activity: 4284
Merit: 8808
Obviously it's not going to keep up forever. For the next half a year or so though? That certainly seems possible at least. There's an insane amount of network power that's already been pre-ordered and just needs to go into production already.
Of course, but once you recognize whats creating the growth you realize that it's not actually an exponential process— it's not like more hashpower begats more hashpower like breeding rabbits. Hashpower comes on line in fits and starts as chips come off assembly lines.

In the long term I like to think about mining as a process that decays words low profitability for the most power efficient miners... but right now supply is manufacturing side limited, not competition limited (relative to power costs mining is insanely profitable still)...  you can pick any result you want just by picking parameters and just about any result is equally (in)sane.

Trying to predict price from difficulty has failed for everyone historically— no shocker because it makes no sense to do so.  Difficulty has closed loop control from the system, it'll be whatever it needs to be to control the blockrate. When difficulty makes mining not profitable enough people stop mining and the difficulty drops.  More than half the coin that will ever exist is already in circulation, miners are in little position to dictate market prices to improve their profitability, but in a lot of position to turn on and off.
full member
Activity: 146
Merit: 100
So how much does it cost to mine one Bitcoin? Assuming a 76% increase in difficulty per month, .15$/kWh, and a 2% pool fee:

So. 76% per month. Thats 88238% per year.

So in 5 years the hashrate will be ~3,765,807,437,718,645,270,000,000,000,000 hashes per second, and with the current 110MH/j miners thats a power consumption of 34,234,613,070,169,502,454,545 watts.

This is the energetic equivalent of exploding 8182 gigatonns of TNT every second.

But since the sun produces 4e26 watts, I can't see how this isn't totally feasible... we just need to build a solar array with a radius of roughly the same radius of the earth to trail us in orbit and catch light from the sun.


Obviously it's not going to keep up forever, and likely won't keep up for a whole year either. For the next half a year or so though? That certainly seems possible at least.
There's an insane amount of network power that's already been pre-ordered and just needs to go into production already. Great job wasting your time on straw man calculations though. At least mine were somewhat related to reality (that % is predicted based upon previous difficulty changes observed, I didn't just invent it to make a point like your numbers).
staff
Activity: 4284
Merit: 8808
So how much does it cost to mine one Bitcoin? Assuming a 76% increase in difficulty per month, .15$/kWh, and a 2% pool fee:

So. 76% per month. Thats 88238% per year.

So in 5 years the hashrate will be ~3,765,807,437,718,645,270,000,000,000,000 hashes per second, and with the current 110MH/j miners thats a power consumption of 34,234,613,070,169,502,454,545 watts.

This is the energetic equivalent of exploding 8182 gigatonns of TNT every second.

But since the sun produces 4e26 watts, I can't see how this isn't totally feasible... we just need to build a solar array with a radius of roughly the same radius of the earth to trail us in orbit and catch light from the sun.


full member
Activity: 146
Merit: 100
In my other thread someone suggested that since mining is a way many people first get into Bitcoin that an increase in the price of mining each coin could increase Bitcoin market price. I think its definitely a plausible theory. The steady flow of new investors who would normally buy equipment are instead going to buy Bitcoins directly as long as the market price is less than the price per Bitcoin from hardware manufacturers. The real question is whether most miners can afford to hold out for these high break even prices or whether they will sell early (or potentially hold for a long time to double their profits?). The price per BTC represents what price point a miner would have to sell at to make his money back (no profit).

So how much does it cost to mine one Bitcoin? Assuming a 76% increase in difficulty per month, .15$/kWh, and a 2% pool fee:

(I used mining.thegenesisblock.com for these estimates)


BFL Single SC


Power cost over 7 months: ~$280
Initial cost = ~$1300
Total cost over 7 months: ~$1580

For people who get their Single SC 60 GH/s tomorrow: They will mine about 18 coins over the next 7 months. Cost: ~$88 per Bitcoin.
For people who get their Single SC 60 GH/s at the beginning of October: They will mine about 10 Bitcoins over the next 7 months. Cost: ~$158 per Bitcoin.
For people who get their Single SC at the beginning of November: 5.6 Bitcoins mined over 7 months. Cost: ~$282 per Bitcoin.


Bitfury - 400GH/s

Power cost over 7 months = ~$280
Initial cost = ~$8000
Total cost over 7 months = ~$8,280

Delivery day October 1: 66 Bitcoins mined over next 7 months.  Cost: ~$126 per Bitcoin.
Delivery day Nov 1 = 37.5 coins generated over 7 months. Cost: ~$220 per Bitcoin


KnCminer - 400GH/s Jupiter


Power cost over 7 months = ~$490
Initial cost = ~$7000
Total cost over 7 months = ~$7490

Delivery October 1: 66 coins mined over 7 months. Cost: ~$114 per Bitcoin
Delivery Nov 1: 37.5 coins mined over 7 months. Cost: ~$200 per Bitcoin

HashFast - BabyJet


Power cost over 7 months: ~$259
Initial cost = ~$5600
Total cost over 7 months = ~$5859

Delivery Nov 1: 37.5 coins mined. Cost: ~$156.24 per Bitcoin
Delivery Dec 1: 21.3 coins mined over 7 months. Cost: ~$275 per Bitcoin
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