Maybe not with 51%
But what if they do have more, like 80 or 90% or more? After all it only take like 10 millions $ to do a 51%, an entity wich has billions can surely spend a bit more and do that.
Think about it. If you have some large hash at your disposal you could generate a new chain with a fork further back in time and thus take other recent miner's income as you point out. However in doing so you are applying your hash to making this new chain and could simply be raking in current blocks which would generate more profit for you. As you have spent so much on your hash you will have incentive to make the network stronger and thus increase the value of your coins. The only possible exception to this is right after a block reward drop, though I still imagine it would be more profitable to simply mine new blocks (anybody want to model this for me?). I imagine Satoshi considered this possibility along with the resolution of a more gently falling reward rate, and realized it didn't matter much and thats why we have the 50% reward drops.
You make an estimate of US$ 10 large to make a 51% double spend attack. Do you think there are enough instant large-withdrawl-enabled services out there that anybody could recoup this kind of investment by doing some double spending? I don't. Careful planning and you could get the maximum withdraws from all the top exchanges, and some serious loot from gambling operators and a few online wallets. I don't think this will approach $10 mil. Coin service operators are (hopefully) aware that a double spend possibility exists and can simply put a hard cap on withdraws.
In my mind this vulnerability just means that BTC is not an appropriate vehicle for transactions, lets be conservative and take 10% of your figure, which are valued at US$ 1mil. If you need to accept a million dollar payment from somebody you don't trust, you might want to start to worry about a double spend attack, especially if you think there are 10 other folks out there also accepting million dollar payments from this non-trusted entity. A suitcase of swiss francs or gold bars is probably a better solution for you.
As the network hash rate grows, the cost of a double spend 51% attack increases as well, and the maximum that people are willing to accept in coin payment from non-trusted entities will go up as well.
In a related topic, can anybody tell me why this idea of "checkpointing" gives me a bad feeling?