Topic: Mining and the Halving - page 2. (Read 4923 times)

I can assume the majority of mining farms will stay in China and this is it, because they have cheap electricity.
They will flourish in this business and we can expect further development to come from theirs labs.
But eventually difficulty will come to one point where further rise will be non profitable and will stay there for some time. But price (demand)  dictates tempo of mining.

Good question but your anwser is not correct.  You are speculating.... could your anwser be correct?  Sure it might be.  But there is no way to guarantee a price increase or difficulty change.

You talk about things as fact's.  But espically on price increase there are no guarantees.

Price will increase or difficulty will adapt, I think, no more no less but is a good question!

not only that, but the efficiency would have a minimal impact in the future, because going from 1k to 500w is one thing

but going from 500 to 250 is another thing, you cna clearly see that the more the efficiency get better, the less you are saving on the efficiency itself

There is no guarantee it can only go up long term.  As investors..  we hope this is true but there could be things we don't know and it goes down a lot, or replaced with a new coin one day.  Fact is we just don't know, and cannot possibly predict BTC 10-20 year frame.

You act like 400 is cheapest it's been in that timeframe.  But look in it sometimes in period was in 200's..... and some paid 1K and are still holding.  So there are some bad timing lost lots of money.  Don't invest more then you can afford as there are no guarantees in this game.

Bitcoin can only go up in long term, maybe in 10 to 20 years. It was down since later 2013 ($1200) to 2015 (400).

Yeah I would think bitmaintech will come out with something a little worse the bitfury"

Maybe a .14 watt miner uses 1000 watts and does 7th

We do know that Bitmain's next gen won't be smaller than what the large foundries can currently produce, unless Bitmain is currently funding the foundries R&D for smaller nm chips.

Not sure that was worth bumping thread for...  But we have always been in a continuous progress of new miners being made.   We really don't know a whole lot about what limit is .... as we don't know R/D as most companies don't share it.    Sure we can guess nothing under 10 nm, probley a safe bet right now but this will change eventually.  And we will have no idea when it does change until it's public.... which is hard to say.

I mean look at bitmain they are biggest maker of home miner I would think.  And we know 0 about their next gen.  I think that shows us how little we know, as they have to be having some R/D chances are as we speak.

Yes. But the progress of making efficient miners will be lower than now or in the past. 10 nm will be limit for now.

It is not really that much optimism.  It just is if we do peak and there is not money for R/D..... that means bitcoin no longer has a very bright future.   Were talking serious drops in  price.   Lots of bad things.

I think bitcoin is long term.   If I didn't I would not waste so much time of this site.  I think asic is still the future just smaller nm and more perfected.

Hopeful think but I admire your optimism.  Bitcoin ASIC mining is a zero-sum game.  That means you need a heavy incentive for people to invest the amount of capital in R&D to keep pushing improvements.  At these levels we are talking high-mid in the millions minimum and that doesn't count for production once you have a good chip.  If you are going to make that investment, you are going to want guarantees of a ROI or at at least ROC (Return of Capital).   If what you say is true about it being bad for the little guys, how many generations of hardware releases do you think will stick in there?  At a point, you can't rely on those dollars.  That comes to my other predictions is that mining is going fully private for the most part with some retail going out the door but likely only to big players.  That is where the incentive is going.   

Once we went ASIC, this was an inevitable path.  With GPUs and FPGAs, you at least had secondary uses for the hardware so you resell it once it was not profitable for you, with ASIC hardware, this is it and because people will sit by and wait for dips to turn it back on, the difficult is never fully allowed to correct for a meaningful enough time to let people make reasoned long-term investments. 

Last point is the power usage is becoming to a point where it is really moving out of the home and commercial office into data-centers and industrial spaces setup for this application.  I hope the halving will give us some market discipline that will help future miners. 

Thoughts?

There will always be work on more efficient chips as long as there money in the industry.  BTC is still the gold of crypto, so even after next gen hits there will be some perfecting next gen and working on even farther.  We will not cap out on best machine.

But electricity is always important it is today and still will be in future.

In the future, there will be little progress in the efficieny of the miners. So the miners will compete with cheap electricity.

Well it all depends also with performance as well, not just free electricity.

But yeah thats a huge component where most of us cant avoid, so lets stop with this mining dream lol.

you will lose money because of the diff, 0.2 is too high and matching the earning is not a good idea

it was also an easy math because at 0.05 the profit is 4x the consumption

Yea many like me are not that lucky.   But free miners are in a GREAT time ahead.  Last gen gear keeps getting cheaper S5, SP20, Avalon 4.1, etc.  They still are great gear just to expensive to run on normal electricity.

So I see a flood of these last gen, but still great miners being sold cheap.  So free/super cheap actually have a good time ahead of them (I think at least).

Ya it is true that who are running mining on free electricity or on heavy investment can survive but it is also true that this halving will decrease the production of coin by 50% so their will be a big challenge for miners as i think price wont rose 50% up but production will surely come down to 50%. only the potential miners will survive who have before itself made changes according to the halving problems.

I just noticed at today's bitcoin price, if you pay $0.2/kWh for electricity, the revenue is the same as the cost for S7 miners.

I think it's hobby miner and home miner will have a hard time if it continues.  Both are not big enough to get gear discounts when buying.   But it will all come down to electricity.

Those small miners with included electricity/free.. will continue to make money.  So all depends on that electricity.