Topic: Mining Giant Bitmain Posts $500 Million Loss in IPO Financial Filing (Read 952 times)

bla bla bla...

Have you learned how mining pools distribute the block rewards and how you calculate your profit over a day depending on your hashing power? I've posted previously the crap you were trying to pass as mining knowledge, you still have the nerve to act high and might after that?
Stop trying to act like a know it all cause even a 2yo has figured all you do is talk things you've dreamed the previous night.

And if you want to stop derailing the subject, then it's pretty easy, stop posting unrelated stuff!
Let's see, can you do it, or again your ego won't let you leave a topic without having the final word?

again your obsessed with trying to predict the next high.
for the multiple time the market dynamics is about VALUE (when the corrections occur)
and where the bottomline is found
how many more times do i have to say it
stop thinking about the speculative unpredictable bubble hype. and think about true value point

no one actually cares about last years $20k because hardly anyone was online to actually sell at $20k. the $20k ATH affects very little people. so people should stop caring about the highs because no one can predict the exact point of the tip of a ATH

but if people know where ground level is going to be. everyone can take advantage of the ground level.
things like
knowing how much speculation there is above ground level to know the risks of if they are buying into good value or pure hype
knowing the correction when it occurs is about to peter out so they can start buying in again

the market does react to mining, but its not anything to do with ATH or the hype of speculation.

...

stompix its obvious you cant understand the mining market dynamics. so maybe its you that should not derail the topic of bitmain to then talk only about the dynamics.

looking back at the topic, i made a subtle suggestion MONTHS ago in february. and you/windfury as standard practice totally meandered the topic to only discuss it.

now if you and windfury actually both done some research, including research right back to the days of hal finney, you would learn a thing or two about real economics of the mining/market dynamics.

i even have post history from other topics that done some math. should you care to continue the meander. or you can just stay not understanding the mining market dynamics and just play out your social drama of the meander

either way, im not here to teach you things that already have ben published and wrote about. if you cant look for it. thats on you

---

---

to save spamming...
stompix, you re-opened a topic from 2 months ago that was about bitmain. and you meandered it about the mining/market dynamics.
you obviously didnt read or research because even in your opener this month quoting me, the quote you have of me clearly even said it was not about profit.. and clearly says not about by minute/daily. yet i can see by your next post your talking about daily profit.
again missing the whole point.

stop thinking my comment about market follow mining is anything to do with predicting the next high profit. its about th correction/bottomline value. no the top price.
stop looking at charts of the top daily price and look for the average LOW

Franky, I've been always wondered how can you write pages after pages of totally unrelated stuff but by some miracle manage to avoid exactly the simple thing I was asking you.

You've again launched in a debate just to derail the discussion and avoid answering some simple questions.
Is that hard to follow the flow of a discussion without trying to bring in some unrelated stuff that so that you can be right in at least one aspect?

Say it then, you don't want to answer and be done with it!!!!!

Oh, and stop trying to act like a victim, we're not in kindergarten here!!!



Yeah, because an x5  increase in hashrate clearly showed the price should go down 4x!!!
It makes total sense, how could I have missed that.

stompix your missing the whole point yet again.

there is no magic crystal ball for your next ATH to be found so try not to insinuate that you thought u found one via my numbers and now crying because it didnt work out. it was never a magic ball to predict the next ATH.

as for the market:mining dynamics.
while the PRICE is at ~$8k
while the VALUE is at ~$5k

again no magic crystal ball of the future ATH.
what can be told though is the LOW.. i will emphasise this many times.. LOW LOW LOW will correct around the $5k range if speculation dies (as long as the hashrate stays where it is.)

some pools may react and throw alot of hashpower to get hashrate of THEIR pool into the the 70-80exa range, but that (my opinion) is foolish to do so, so suddenly and so reactively.(hense btcc is no more)

most smart pools do not react to the markets and instead the pools have a stable planned out adjustment of hashrate to cause a stable BOTTOMLINE LOW adjustment. and its the markets that respond to this.
they wont sell below a certain level

this again is not about causing a rampant market PRICE rise. but the bottomline correction support value adjustment
as shown by the STABLE bottom line of $5800 for most of summer 2018. then when old gen asics got sold cheap to drop the mining cost in october thus bottomline value drop. the PRICE then followed in november.
because the gap between price and value got too speculative and so the bubble burst in november

now that hashrate is back on the incline. people are now refusing to sell for $3500. instead their bottomline value is at~$5k so the market then reacts with its speculation/fomo. and so we are right now sat at a ~$3k speculation area.

again smart pools wont jump to 70-80exa overnight to fill the gap and give good support for a $8k value. so expect there to be a speculative amount for a while. and yes this could mean people panic and sell back down to $5k.(if the hashrate remains around the 50exa range)

if however over the next 3 months the hashrate does incline to ~80exa. then you will find that most people wont sell below $8k as that would be the bottomline support value.. but no one will tel you what the ATH PRICE will be in 3 months
the price could also be around $8k meaning very little speculation. or the price can be up higher meaning alot of speculation

all that can be told is the bottomline VALUE. the area of where the price can go DOWN to... NOT i repeat NOT upto

TL:DR;
stop thinking that mining hashrate can predict what the price can go UPTO
start thinking that mining hashrate can predict what the price can go DOWNTO

Nobody ever said something about predicting the right price or predicting where the price goes.

The whole thread derailed from Bitmain because you've started to argue with everybody that difficulty (hashrate) is influencing the price and that price always follows hash (or difficulty).

I've given you previously two examples of why it's completely the opposite, the whole situation now is pointing at it but you continue on your path like a blinkered horse, pulling terms out of you know what about the underlying value and right value and the bottom value and what is far worse your are now claiming values *and this is pure contradiction to your claims you don't act like a crystal ball.

Even worse than that, if it can actually get even worse is that you are trying to get those values out of thin air and again for the x time contradicting your posts from two months ago.

Nobody cares about those analogies, nobody cares about scenarios with so much data and so little in common with what we are discussing.

I've asked you a simple question, in the situation the price will keep flat at 8k for 3 months, will the hashrate recoup the 90% in growth it missed or it will stay the same?
Is hashrate going after the price or it will stay still?

Simple answer franky1, simple, if I want to read crappy scenarios I can go and watch Game of Thrones.

stompix.

you seem to think i was promoting a way to predict the PRICE
no, no no

get that out of your head.

i have never cared for speculation. i have never cared for temoprary ATH drama.
what i care for is knowing the bottomline value where people STOP trying to sell below so that people know the settling point of where the BOTTOMLINE will reach once all the drama/speculation subsides/corrects.

my numbers do not help people have a magic crystal ball for the next ATH. i know thats what you are hoping for, but thats your failure.
my numbers are to help people know how much of a gap there is between the 'correction' bottomline and the current price. so that they can see how much speculation there is to know the risks of if they are buying near value. or they are buying alot of speculative vapour hype(buying intoa  bubble)

imagine it this way.
imagine you were at 2 car showrooms. both cars are $40k. and you instantly think, because they are new the resell value is a instant loss of 10% due to the 'used car' devaluation.

what if i told you the 'book price' of both vehicles and one car was $20k and another was $35k
you would then know the car thats book price was $20k would actually have a worse resell value after the 'used car devaluation' thus it would aid you to make a safer investment decision to buy the vehicle which is closer to the book price because reselling it will get you better value.

word it another way.
if you seen 2 coins. both PRICE was $8k. but ones underlying value was $7.5k and the other was $5k
which coin in your mind has most risk of losing most value after a correction. and which coin would you be more temptd to buy as an investment

Finally, you've said something right, MINING has no influence whatsoever on the price.


So, what the difference between hashrate and difficulty when used as a comparison value?
Nada. Hashrate goes up 10% over two weeks, the difficulty goes up 10 %, again you're trying to create a saga out of nothing.

Bottom line, hahrate is at a standstill, the price doesn't give a damn about it, and unfortunately, we should do the same about your theories.
Honestly, I'm amazed how after you posted this crap that shows how little you know about mining, pool rewards and much more


you still have the nerve to come every time and act like you actually know something.


Oh , and just for fun.
Let's say the price stays flat at 8k and the hahrate is going to start creeping up....
It will be because....reptilians or gummy bears?

your talking about the PRICE as 100%.. vs the underlying value 10% (actually 35->55 = over 50% bottomline value increase.. but whos counting(not you))
the PRICE and underlying value ARE NOT THE SAME THING

the underlying value is ~$5k area and the PRICE is ~$8k area
this does not mean underlying value is $8k. it means there is ~$3k of speculation
try to read that there is a difference between price and value. and that. as i quoted and highlighted that the mining/market dynamics has nothing to do with predicting the next ATH PRICE.
the mining/market dynamics only shows the BOTTOMLINE support VALUE (area the price can settle back down to after correction)

P.S you obviously didnt read, because i never even mentioned 'difficulty' as the metric for mining. i used hashrate.
which really goes to show you did not read a single point i made. even when you quoted my point, you still did not read/understand it

How is this theory of your working out right now?
The price is up 100 %, the difficulty is up 10% in 3 months and the current period is showing a -1% retrace.

Hilarious, it didn't even take two months to prove your theory is, how do I say it nicely, completely stuff that comes out from the back of a bull after he has eaten some carbonara.


Yup, you nailed it perfectly...

What should stop miners from selling their BTC under the mining costs?
People are investing into ICOs, buying stocks and any other assets and qualified investors are able to see when the price is totally going down and they are ready to fix their losses by selling their assets. The same logic may be applied to crypto market.

Yes, the miners' anticipation of the market's growth. I believe when one mining farm starts adding hashing power, some of the rest add some too, to not be "left behind" and to maximize profit from the next bull market.


A sign that the miners' are reacting to the bearish market.


Right, but more to do with miners' projection of what direction Bitcoin might go. They are also speculators.


I told you Bitmain will post a loss.

Let me ask you something. Would Bitmain be in a better situation today if Jihan Wu wasn't scammed by Roger Ver into fully supporting, and holding a large amount of Bitcoin Cash?

your starting to grasp it
when the market is flat (at its low) you start to see the correlation that when hashrates grow and continue to be at a new high, and you calculate the cost of mining. you then see the markets latest LOW move because less people are going to sell for less as it now costs more.

when the market is flat (at its low) you start to see the correlation that when hashrates drop and continue to be at a new low, and you calculate the cost of mining. you then see the markets latest LOW move because more people are going to sell for less as it now costs less.

again nothing to do with the volatile PRICE or daily movements. but the periodic LOW known as the bottom line support

the hourly/daily market fluctuations are speculative and not predictable and the small amount (few percent) of hobby miners that dont make up the underlying support do react, but this is as i and even the phillipma1957 illustration shows as a small percentage

but this mining:market dynamic has always ben in play and even rcognised by people like hal finney back in 2010
its also why PoW will have more underlying value than PoS as PoS has no underlying cost thus their is not much to support it

anyway we meandred off topic a bit too much. but hopefully you are now grasping the basics of it
a PoS coin has way more chance of dropping to zero than a PoW just for the point of being a zero cost underlying value.
PoS coins rely mor on speculation, hype and utility to give 'faith' value(speculation) to its price

This is what I have come to discover from our debates about this topic. That miners are also akin to speculators. They either react to the market, or anticipate where the market is going, because simply adding hardware and increasing their expenses would be dangerous to their business.

When the market is flat, but hashing power increases, it's the miners showing their cards on what the market might do.

they sold 500 unit in few days, the demand is there.

I think Q1 2019 will be even worse for them.
The 'bear' market slows down the development of mining. And mining is becoming less popular now. But who will buy their equipment now? Mining makes a profit is not so good. This can be profitable if you have very cheap electricity. But this is not available in all countries.
It seems to me they will return all losses as soon as the market recovers only.

that illustration of 5% changes. is not big farms magically able to make parcel delivery companies deliver same day. and get electricians booked to change fuseboxes sameday.

what your actually seeing is the 5% of mining community that are NOT profitable moving away from bitcoin when not profitable to pool hop to altcoins and then move back to bitcoin.
these pool hopping hobbiests are as the illustrations shows only 5%. which is standard daily variance and not something that indicates strong underlying value support growth. but more of the same speculative up and down.

strong underlying support value that sticks around and makes people not want to sell below a certain value, where the value is higher than previous. is not something reactive of markets. its deeper than you think

I admit, this is true.


But I also said above that they also might be anticipating what the market would do, and then act.


phillipma1957 already said some miners, which I assume to the more profitable ones, can as he illustrated above.


Ok. I will get back to it.

you have your opinion but you need research

funny part is if you are going to quote a source for your opinion, atleast do your checks and research
here;

'we had a hash spike then a price spike'
HASH... THEN... PRICE

also you say
"bitcoin mining is a business of who reacts quickly"

1. prices move by the minute. miners cannot PHYSICALLY in the real world get ASIC deliveries, change electric supply contracts, set new rigs up by the minute

2. the 'reactors' or the ones that pool jump to the most profitable coins of the minute. as that chart shows (42exa-44exa) are not even 5% of the network. these are the HOBBY miners.. they pool hop. they cannot stay on bitcoin and provide sustainable support for bottomline value as they are not the cheapest/smartest set of miners. that is why they pool hop.

3. even logic will tell you when someone makes something. they are reluctant to sell it at a loss. smart miners have the mindset of this
a. is bitcoin going to die and become nothing tomorrow - no
b. is there a point at which it become foolish and futile to sell at a loss, rather than hold - yes
c. at point X we will not sell at a loss
where point X then becomes the bottomline value where the market shows everyone has decided they wont sell below.. that is th bitcoin markets LOW

so ignore the speculative temporary unpredictable waves/bubble price of the ups/ATH. concentrate on the periodic LOW and you will see when hashpower rises the low(underlying value) rises.

and please stop trying to assume things. DYOR
the mining: market dynamics has nothing to do with predicting the next ATH. or the next PRICE of the next minute/day
the mining:market dynamic plays out to show the underlying VALUE which when there is more hashrate the underlying value (bottomline support) goes up. (3.c.)

I am, and I might be wasting my time.


Because all that is your own interpretation of what has happened between the price, and the hash power. I can see the connection, but it's maybe the wrong interpretation. I still believe that miners add or reduce hash power as a reaction, or sometimes as an anticipation of that the market would do.

phillipma1957 has already illustrated that some miners, probably the most profitable and the most efficient react, and that Bitcoin mining is a business of who reacts quickly.

your not reading are you.

PRICE is not the BOTTOMLINE VALUE

again imagine the sea.. sealevel(bottomline value).. waves(active price)

 /\       /\
/  \/\/\/  \
mining does not indicate the diagonal lines.
mining does indicate what level the horizontal line of bottomline value lays
the price is speculative . goes up and down, its temporary drama. .. so forget ever trying to use mining to guess the next spike. forget trying to predict the next ATH

use the mining market dynamic to know when the next LOW is the ultimate LOW value. the line which gets built up OVER TIME where the community eventually come to a point where even the last person willing to sell decides enough is enough its not worth selling for less. that LOW is the BOTTOMLINE value

the first 3 quarters of 2018 the BOTTOMLINE VALUE was $5800.. even when the PRICE was volatile
no one in the first 3 quarters of 2018 sold below $5800..

in august/september i was HOPING that the 4th quarter would see a rise in hashrate which would cause a snowball effect where peoples costs go up so people would decide never to sell below $6k, and thus put pressure on the PRICE to steadily rise as a consequence(stay above $6k and not hit $5800 again))

but the hashrate went down in october. pools closed(BTCC) so the remaining pools got an extra large slice (more coin share) pools were also selling off old gear(more coin) so they became happier to then sell below the $5800 as a consequence of less hashpower less costs thus able to profit at a lower sell price.

again hashpower WILL NEVER be a indicator for the next ATH spike. so please stop trying to find a link between the hashrate and the hourly/daily PRICE vs mining.
look at the LOW over a period of time

if you do mining costs calculations.. and by this i mean the CHEAPEST mining costs. you will find the COST point of acquisition meaning you then know logically the lowest price people are rationally happy to sell down to before saying its not profitable to sell right now. and you will have your LOW bottomline market value.
if you chart it out. you will see (DYOR)