Mining investment: 30BTC=100Mh/s*1 year=~360BTC cur rate, likely to decrease

nster

full member

Activity: 126

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US Wall Sockets are pitiful Sad

Check your circuit breaker thing.... You better know, as some are 10A for ea socket, @ 120V = 1200W * 80% effenciency = 960W so to be safe maybe 920W. That's minimum obviously. Most are 15A 120V per socket. thats 1800W * 80% = 1440W, and usually you want to be 1 AMP below at least so 1300~1350W. You could have 20A 125V sockets, but I doubt it, which offers 2500W * 80% = 2000W so maybe 1900W

If you think you have standard sockets, DO NOT go over 1500W DC. 2* 750W PSUs are usually more effencient then 1* 750W. An XFX 750W BE or Corsair HX750W/AX750W (ie: 80 Plus Silver or Gold) type quality is essential if you want to make sure your socket is safe. With 4* OCed 6990s (OCed only to 830Mhz and lowering mem clock), you can get 25 slots (the 3 overhead should go in your pocket and are just in case scenarios) can be run by 2* 750W PSUs on the same socket OR just put them in different sockets and don't expand too much. If you have that 1KW ordered, NP, get any PSU that could run 2* 6990s alone (650W~750W), 80 plus obviously, and run the 1KW with the whole system + 2 6990s ad the 750W with 2 6990s Wink

joshuaMachine

newbie

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I'm starting the first 10 shares approximately Wednesday. I agree that with this, as with anything, you will have to make a prediction about your expectation before making the investment. If you think the growth rate will stay large or increase more, it makes no sense. If you think the large growth rate as of recent is a peak, it might. It's entirely up to you. That is your assessment to make, and no one can predict the future with certainty. Make your best guess. Weigh the risk vs. the reward. Use your brain. All those good things. Obviously, I'm not trying to make that prediction for anyone. Go run some numbers and see if it makes sense, use a variety of growth changes and see how the money works out.

I'm not sure how soon I will be able to add additional shares or at what price. The absolute earliest would be Wednesday.

wareen

legendary

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Revolutionizing Brokerage of Personal Data

Quote from: joshuaMachine on May 07, 2011, 05:13:26 AM

I completely agree. Based on your calculations (I did not double check them) - if you think the difficulty level will increase by 30% every 11 days for the next year (which is already an unusually fast recent growth rate), you will STILL make 30% on your money, which is 3 times as good as the stock market long term average.

Yes, 30% gain if you had started a week ago, about 0% if you start in 2 days and ca. -21% if you start in two weeks. Even if you think this growth will slow down it is not very reasonable to just use some fixed difficulty level for your calculations.
Anyway, the point I was trying to get across is, that time is an issue here: no matter _how_ fast difficulty increases, the time in the beginning will be the most profitable (except you count on it decreasing again). Which brings me back to my original question: when do you think you could have your machine up and mining?

Quote from: joshuaMachine on May 07, 2011, 05:13:26 AM

The only reason I mentioned the 25% number is that I heard a projection that by 6 months from now we would be at 25%. Even if you only got in 6 months of mining at 25% capacity (starting now) you would end up with 45 BTC at the end of 6 months. Will we have 25% capacity in 6 months? more? less? there is some risk involved in making that guess, that's the entire point. I talked about it at length.

25% mining efficiency in 6 months is pretty optimistic IMHO - that would boil down to an average of only 0.77% network growth per day, whereas we are more at 2.5% right now. But maybe I'm just too pessimistic Cheesy

Anyway, it would be great if you could estimate how fast you think you can get started.

joshuaMachine

newbie

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Quote from: wareen on May 07, 2011, 04:48:13 AM

Quote from: joshuaMachine on May 07, 2011, 03:36:51 AM

90 BTC return describes a scenario where the difficulty increases to 400% of today's level TODAY. It's more likely that today the difficulty level will be approximately 100% of today's level. Do the calculation to determine the expect return at the current rate change, at a 2x rate change, and a 1/2x rate change. Report back. You will get paid the expected value of mining BTC at 100 Mh/s. The private pool choice / soloing is something you don't have to worry about. The only thing that is relevant to your BTC income is the difficulty rating.

Yes, today's difficulty level will be 100% of today's level - I agree on that Wink

But in 2-3 days it will be about 138% of today's level, in two weeks it will be at about 190%... My point is, that no calculation of expected return should be based on a steady difficulty level. Extrapolating the current difficulty increase rate of about 30% every ~11 days, works out to about 40BTC over a year for 100Mh/s - that is, if you had started at the beginning of the current difficulty level. If you start from the next level you won't get much above the 30BTC. Of course, nobody can predict how the difficulty will change during the next year and the current rate of increase is probably unusually high but it is a bit of a gamble.
I don't want to discourage you or anybody from your plans, all I'm saying is to realize you are more or less betting on a decrease of the current mining-power growth level.

I completely agree. Based on your calculations (I did not double check them) - if you think the difficulty level will increase by 30% every 11 days for the next year (which is already an unusually fast recent growth rate), you will STILL make 30% on your money, which is 3 times as good as the stock market long term average. I think pretty much everyone figured out that this investment's value is directly tied to the value of the Mh/s, which was made about as explicit as possible. It's in the thread title Grin

. The only reason I mentioned the 25% number is that I heard a projection that by 6 months from now we would be at 25%. Even if you only got in 6 months of mining at 25% capacity (starting now) you would end up with 45 BTC at the end of 6 months. Will we have 25% capacity in 6 months? more? less? there is some risk involved in making that guess, that's the entire point. I talked about it at length.

wareen

legendary

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Quote from: joshuaMachine on May 07, 2011, 03:36:51 AM

90 BTC return describes a scenario where the difficulty increases to 400% of today's level TODAY. It's more likely that today the difficulty level will be approximately 100% of today's level. Do the calculation to determine the expect return at the current rate change, at a 2x rate change, and a 1/2x rate change. Report back. You will get paid the expected value of mining BTC at 100 Mh/s. The private pool choice / soloing is something you don't have to worry about. The only thing that is relevant to your BTC income is the difficulty rating.

Yes, today's difficulty level will be 100% of today's level - I agree on that Wink

But in 2-3 days it will be about 138% of today's level, in two weeks it will be at about 190%... My point is, that no calculation of expected return should be based on a steady difficulty level. Extrapolating the current difficulty increase rate of about 30% every ~11 days, works out to about 40BTC over a year for 100Mh/s - that is, if you had started at the beginning of the current difficulty level. If you start from the next level you won't get much above the 30BTC. Of course, nobody can predict how the difficulty will change during the next year and the current rate of increase is probably unusually high but it is a bit of a gamble.
I don't want to discourage you or anybody from your plans, all I'm saying is to realize you are more or less betting on a decrease of the current mining-power growth level.

LMGTFY

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Quote from: joshuaMachine on May 07, 2011, 04:02:31 AM

I'm going to think about this over the weekend. If there is obvious demand for more slots, I will try to accommodate more, to a limit. There is some amount of Mh/s that I just wont be able to cross because of space and heat and power draw (it's free, but I can't break the circuit breaker).

I will consider getting a machine with more PCI-e slots. I would appreciate advice on a motherboard and case that could support 5-8+ double size PCI-e 2.0 x8 or greater slots.

This forum's Mrb has done some work with multi-GPU systems - check out their blog, as they detail the motherboard etc they use. You'd probably need to look at 6990s rather than 5970s, but with four 6990s you could hit 2800 Mhash/s - at 100 Mhash/s per slot that's 28 slots. Might annoy your circuit-breaker, however... and I suspect that heat would start to become an issue.

You'd need a mobo with four double-sized PCI-e slots, but x8 isn't necessary - with a bit of hacking you could get by with x1. Mrb used PCI-e extenders, but mentions that literally hacking the mobo is an alternative option (though one I'd avoid, since it's an expensive mistake if you do it wrong...)

joshuaMachine

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Quote from: LMGTFY on May 07, 2011, 03:50:04 AM

I appreciate you've possibly found a buyer for all 10 slots, however I'm registering my interest anyway :-) I'd be looking at between 1 and 3 slots @ 30 BTC (i.e. I'd pay you 30 - 90 BTC).

You could maybe consider getting a beefier machine, and selling 20 slots? Might be more cost effective than buying a second, identically-specced, machine. And it might suit your needs better? Anyway, consider my interest registered!

I'm going to think about this over the weekend. If there is obvious demand for more slots, I will try to accommodate more, to a limit. There is some amount of Mh/s that I just wont be able to cross because of space and heat and power draw (it's free, but I can't break the circuit breaker).

I will consider getting a machine with more PCI-e slots. I would appreciate advice on a motherboard and case that could support 5-8+ double size PCI-e 2.0 x8 or greater slots.

LMGTFY

hero member

Activity: 644

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I appreciate you've possibly found a buyer for all 10 slots, however I'm registering my interest anyway :-) I'd be looking at between 1 and 3 slots @ 30 BTC (i.e. I'd pay you 30 - 90 BTC).

You could maybe consider getting a beefier machine, and selling 20 slots? Might be more cost effective than buying a second, identically-specced, machine. And it might suit your needs better? Anyway, consider my interest registered!

joshuaMachine

newbie

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Quote from: wareen on May 07, 2011, 03:17:14 AM

This would indeed be an interesting deal but you forgot to mention one very important detail: when will you be able to start (actually mining, that is)?
Please keep in mind that due to the current rate of difficulty jumps, every day counts and if you start mining in, say two weeks from now, this investment might barely be profitable. I don't think you can justify your profit calculations because they are based on non-increasing difficulty levels. Even the one with 90BTC@25% - which might seem conservative - but if difficulty is going to increase to 400% of today's level, do you think one could rationally assume that it would stop there?
Maybe you should also clarify if the slots will mine solo (probably not very wise), if all 10 slots work together in a private pool or if you plan on having them work for some public pool.

Having said all that, if you can start within the next week, I'm in

90 BTC return describes a scenario where the difficulty increases to 400% of today's level TODAY. It's more likely that today the difficulty level will be approximately 100% of today's level. Do the calculation to determine the expect return at the current rate change, at a 2x rate change, and a 1/2x rate change. Report back. You will get paid the expected value of mining BTC at 100 Mh/s. The private pool choice / soloing is something you don't have to worry about. The only thing that is relevant to your BTC income is the difficulty rating.

I am working out the deal with the first buyer (of all 10 slots). More slots will likely become available if there is continued demand but I will need to adjust the parameters, work on my trust level, apparently sign up for gpg, make sure the prices are still such that I can buy the computer for 300 BTC. Keep posting, I'll be here.

wareen

legendary

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Revolutionizing Brokerage of Personal Data

This would indeed be an interesting deal but you forgot to mention one very important detail: when will you be able to start (actually mining, that is)?
Please keep in mind that due to the current rate of difficulty jumps, every day counts and if you start mining in, say two weeks from now, this investment might barely be profitable. I don't think you can justify your profit calculations because they are based on non-increasing difficulty levels. Even the one with 90BTC@25% - which might seem conservative - but if difficulty is going to increase to 400% of today's level, do you think one could rationally assume that it would stop there?
Maybe you should also clarify if the slots will mine solo (probably not very wise), if all 10 slots work together in a private pool or if you plan on having them work for some public pool.

Having said all that, if you can start within the next week, I'm in

Raulo

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I may be interested. A few questions:
1. When would it start? Do you have the machine or you'll need to buy it and setup first?
2. Are you going to pay daily amounts that can be calculated from difficulty or is it going to be a fraction of your daily pool payouts?

The trust is of course a problem. I would be fairly easy to take the 300 BTC and run. Or even better. Take 300 BTC, pay it back for some time, gain some trust, sell 10 times more contracts and run with 3000 BTC. All without owning mining machines. It would help if you indeed owned the machine and could show some income stream.

Drise

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Well, I'm new to BTC and trying to find a way to start up. Low on cash since I'm a college student... I don't know. It was a question. Simply I pay you some, you keep the rest until I'm covered. And hell, I would even make it 45BTC for myself for the inconvenience of it. Again, just a question.

joshuaMachine

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Quote from: Drise on May 07, 2011, 02:16:47 AM

As am I, but would it be anyway possible to somewhat take a "loan" for the btc I dont have and pay you back when they are generated?

So I pay for the hardware and generate the bitcoins, and then give them to you? I don't think that would be very fair to me.

Drise

newbie

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As am I, but would it be anyway possible to somewhat take a "loan" for the btc I dont have and pay you back when they are generated?

kseistrup

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Unselfish actions pay back better

I'm interested in buyng a share, I've sent you a PM.

Cheers,

joshuaMachine

newbie

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I can't scale this up indefinitely at the moment, but I could scale this somewhat. I could imagine having storage space for maybe 10-20 such machines in the very near future (allowing for 100-200 shares in total of the same kind). The limitation would basically be the wall socket. How many kW can I draw without blowing the breaker? Depends on the current draw, I suppose, but how many computers could I practically rig to a wall socket. Each computer would be fitted with about a 1 kW power supply. I would have to re-figure the numbers though, because at that point it would no longer be about using the machine, I would need to make sure I had enough hashing power to make the extra hashes worth my time.

Any thoughts on the limitation of a circuit breaker in an average house? A college dorm? Single wall outlet with surge protector?

BitterTea

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Quote from: joshuaMachine on May 07, 2011, 01:25:32 AM

Once I get a computer mining at a certain hash rate, the difficulty of the block does not affect the hash guess rate, just affects the likelihood of the solution? I may have mixed words, otherwise.

This is correct. Your hash rate will vary something like +/-5% all the time, but the difficulty only decreases the chance that each hash will find a valid block.

N12

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Your hashrate in absolutes will always stay the same, as it is determined by hardware (in fact it will probably even increase as the software becomes more efficient), it will just relatively be less as the network’s global hashrate increases, and with it the difficulty to generate.

Anyway, I want to invest in this once you provide us with credibility. It would be cool if you could set up even more machines, having free electricity is definitely a major advantage.

joshuaMachine

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Right. One investment share is 30 BTC and it earns you 100 Mh/s for a year (not 10 Mh/s).

BitterTea

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I'm confused about the numbers. At current difficulty, and 100mhash/s, you'll find a block on average every 54 days, 12 hours, 26 minutes. That's only 6-7 blocks, 300-350 BTC, over the course of the year. The payout for all shares combined is currently less than 1 BTC/day and almost assuredly will drop over the course of the next year. I don't think this investment can make a return at 100mhash/s.

My bad, I thought the 100Mh/s was divided between the shares.

Topic: Mining investment: 30BTC=100Mh/s*1 year=~360BTC cur rate, likely to decrease (Read 3295 times)