Here is my mining spreadsheet.
Assumptions: (PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CHALLENGE):
- Value of a BTC will always be related to the cost of power to produce it, since that's directly related to difficulty, which in turn is related to Bitcoin's popularity
- I am assuming today's BTC's are worth 57 cents, despite 0.85 at MtGox
- I am assuming difficulty will rise 30% every ten days
- I am assuming my two 5970's will always give me 1.2 GHash/sec
- I am assuming my mining rig cost me $2000, and my power is $0.095/kWh
If all these assumptions are even close, then by my calculation, mining should still be super profitable, even after paying for the equipment.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0AlC40w3H3dxKdFpJQWc3VlhyWUIzN1Y1UnpEaVlyOEE&output=htmlPlease feel free to suggest which assumptions I should adjust, if any.
EDIT: While these estimates show that one could buy 1227 BTC today and be further ahead, that depends on the difficulty rising by 30% every 10 days. The point I am making is that mining should be
reliably profitable, more so than buying BTC and stashing it away. If it does not rise that fast (which is very possible), mining will yield more BTC that are worth less, but should still be just as profitable as I say it is.
EDIT 2: added a Sheet2 that assumes difficulty and value only rising 15% every 10 days, which is more likely as a long term average.
