Topic: Mining .vs buying in a bear market - page 3. (Read 539 times)

It sure is a scary time for miners these days. I am surprised hardware is not cheaper.

It's cold where I live so that is an advantage for once!

I just setup an AC Infinity Airlift T16 fan for airflow in my garage. That keeps the S19j Pro fans running at 3500rpm so not much noise anymore.

Please don't go with this standardized cost of mining.
This is just a gimmick invented by some bored blogger who had no article to write to make his quota.
You can read what other miners, not just me  think of it here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--5405856

Here on this board there are members with a far lower mining "cost" per BTC and I was one of them too prior to my contract expiring which had way better rates than anything you can possibly get in Europe nowadays. There is no such thing and for sure it ain't in some 25% margin, there are some who average spend 1/5 of a BTC to get one and there are some who mine at break-even point because if they don't they will have to sell all their assets to cover credits and loans.


Of course, buying gear when it's 5x times cheaper is obvious, the thing is that not even that alone can sometimes offset the energy prices.

Let's look at the 7 to 5 cents difference.
3000W running 24 hours is 72kwh, in one instance it is $5.04 in the other is $3.60.
Earnings right now are at 0.06 per th/s so that's $6.60 per miner.
The first miner makes $1.56 second one makes $3, 25% drop in price, and the first miner mines at a loss the second one still makes $1.4.
Same for a difficulty increase with linear price.

Also note, it's not that I'm telling you my crystal ball is 101% sure you're going to lose money, what I want to point out is the risks of doing so and if the KYC thing and the DCA income are enough of an offset for the pain in the ass those miners might turn out to be. Canada you say, so no much of a heat issue but noise and maintenance will still be around.

I am not too concerned with the halving because that usually brings higher highs. I am more worried about the network difficulty.

I can afford to pay for the electricity and hold. I have zero plans to sell until at least 2030.

There is no guarantee that my electric company wont increase cost /kw but I live in a province that has the cheapest electricity in the world due to the massive hydro dams we have here (Quebec, Canada).

What exactly do you mean by "cost of mining before halving is 14-20 thousand dollars" ?

Very doubtful profit, considering that the having will be in about 13 months
https://www.asicminervalue.com/miners/bitmain/antminer-s19j-pro-100th

Do you have money to pay for mining and not sell bitcoins for several years?
Do you have a guarantee that the cost of electricity will not increase?
Even in my country prices are growing by 12-15% per year

The cost of mining before halving is 14-20 thousand dollars, after halving the cost will be more expensive, and it’s not a bad decision to buy at 22 thousand dollars for bitcoin now, but use the using Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy.

Buying gear in a bear market is what everyone recommends. These S19j Pro's were selling for $13,000 USD at the peak so I am buying them at an 85% discount.

7cents per kw is not far from what the large mining farms are paying.

Both mining and buying have different risk tolerance  and it depends on you what is your investment goal but buying bitcoin have less risk than mining because having a miner needs maintenance that can cost more and power rate changes but since you said it's free then it's profitable.

The only problem that I think of buying bitcoin is that it does not direct generate earning as mining does.

No!
It tells you that buying gear now with electricity at 7 cents/kWh is really risky.
People that have access to cheaper gear, that have already ROI, that have cheaper prices per kWh don't have the same problems as a new guy, not forgetting the ones trapped who have already paid in advance a lot of stuff who would just lose more money if they would stop mining.

With a hashrate increase of 10% last period and maybe again going positive for sure mining is not dead, but the profits from it are really anemic soon to be hospitalized 

So does the math tells us mining is dead?

So in 250 days, you would have earned $3700 (I went with your numbers) and spent $2500.
That means you need 750 days to get the investment back and from there you start your profits, that is if there are going to be any since we're going to have a halving in the meantime. And assuming the price would double by then, then you also need to take into account that you have bought those $3700 worth of BTC now!


There are other ways to avoid KYC, especially with these low amounts, since you're going to get like $500 a month.

I pay $0.07cents USD per kw.

#1 question is: What do you pay for electricity? Miners are very power hungry... Would you theoretically earn enough to at least pay the electric bill? If not - forget it.

Should I buy two S19j Pro's for $3,700 USD and mine it for the next few years or just buy $3,700 worth of bitcoin (0.16 BTC) ?

My worry is that mining difficulty will keep going up and I will run out of time being profitable before I reach 0.16 BTC.

At the current difficulty of mining, it will take over 250 days to mine 0.16 BTC with two S19j Pro's (assuming electricity is free) but the difficulty will be WAY higher in the next 250 days...

I love the idea of mining because it allows me to dollar cost average into the market and there is no KYC involved.