Missing 98% | Bitcointalksearch.org

jl2012

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Quote from: Wary on August 18, 2015, 01:28:18 AM

Quote from: jl2012 on August 18, 2015, 01:21:22 AM

most of those "volume" could just be change. You have 10000BTC and send 0.5BTC out and 9999.5BTC back to yourself, and you have generated a transaction volume of 10000BTC.

Interesting idea! If you are right, then we can say that the mystery is solved.

Hovewer, it depends on how the people on blockchain.net calculate their "estimated USD volume". The simplest way to exclude the change is to include only the smaller output of transaction (if it not zero) and ignore the bigger one. Unfortunately, I don't know if they did it.

bc.info has a track record of providing inaccurate info. Don't take it too seriously.

In the early versions, bitcoind always put the change as the last output.

alani123

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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

I think that coin mixing could play a big part in this. Y'know people 'washing' coins in order to hide their origin. Transactions with the same sender and recipient (in the end of the trail)with the sole purpose of making finding the origin of the coins harder.

Wary

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Quote from: RustyNomad on August 18, 2015, 01:44:59 AM

Quote from: Wary on August 18, 2015, 01:28:18 AM

Quote from: jl2012 on August 18, 2015, 01:21:22 AM

most of those "volume" could just be change. You have 10000BTC and send 0.5BTC out and 9999.5BTC back to yourself, and you have generated a transaction volume of 10000BTC.

Interesting idea! If you are right, then we can say that the mystery is solved.

Hovewer, it depends on how the people on blockchain.net calculate their "estimated USD volume". The simplest way to exclude the change is to include only the smaller output of transaction (if it not zero) and ignore the bigger one. Unfortunately, I don't know if they did it.

You cannot really do that as transactions can both ways meaning, sometimes the larger amount will be change going back to the wallet and at other times it might be the smaller amount. I don't think there is way to actually know which amount will be the transaction and which will be the change.

You are right, but all we need is an estimate. If the most common pattern of bitcoin usage is "spend smaller part", the estimate won't be too wrong.

RustyNomad

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Quote from: Wary on August 18, 2015, 01:28:18 AM

Quote from: jl2012 on August 18, 2015, 01:21:22 AM

most of those "volume" could just be change. You have 10000BTC and send 0.5BTC out and 9999.5BTC back to yourself, and you have generated a transaction volume of 10000BTC.

Interesting idea! If you are right, then we can say that the mystery is solved.

Hovewer, it depends on how the people on blockchain.net calculate their "estimated USD volume". The simplest way to exclude the change is to include only the smaller output of transaction (if it not zero) and ignore the bigger one. Unfortunately, I don't know if they did it.

You cannot really do that as transactions can both ways meaning, sometimes the larger amount will be change going back to the wallet and at other times it might be the smaller amount. I don't think there is way to actually know which amount will be the transaction and which will be the change.

Wary

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Quote from: jl2012 on August 18, 2015, 01:21:22 AM

most of those "volume" could just be change. You have 10000BTC and send 0.5BTC out and 9999.5BTC back to yourself, and you have generated a transaction volume of 10000BTC.

Interesting idea! If you are right, then we can say that the mystery is solved.

Hovewer, it depends on how the people on blockchain.net calculate their "estimated USD volume". The simplest way to exclude the change is to include only the smaller output of transaction (if it not zero) and ignore the bigger one. Unfortunately, I don't know if they did it.

Kprawn

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If you believe the Press & Shills it would more likely look like this :

40% Child Porn
30% Drugs
20% Money Laundering
5% Other criminal actions {Tax evasion; unregulated gambling etc. etc.}
5% Legal Trade.
But, we all know.... most of these people are on crack and have a hidden agenda, and are puppets for the masters... So it's more likely something like this :

80% Legal Trade
20% Child Porn / Drugs / Money Laundering / Tax evasion / Gambling etc...

* Disclaimer : My own opinion Wink

jl2012

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most of those "volume" could just be change. You have 10000BTC and send 0.5BTC out and 9999.5BTC back to yourself, and you have generated a transaction volume of 10000BTC.

Kazimir

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Quote from: Wary on August 17, 2015, 11:11:23 PM

Assuming that most of long chains are produced by mixers,

Seems like a far stretch. Normal usage of HD Wallets would typically create long (and continuously growing) chains. And considering that almost all wallets are HD nowadays, I'd say this accounts for normal, every day usage of Bitcoin for regular payments.

Quote from: tadakaluri on August 17, 2015, 10:46:23 PM

The 98% should be regular transactions like job payments, Pool payments for miners, crypto exchanges, shopping, mining equipment purchases, betting and gambling.

The 1% black market is nothing to consider.

Exactly. And if 98-99% is legit, and only 1% is involved in crime related transactions, then the FBI, NSA, and other TLAs are obviously chasing the wrong currency! The crime rate is far, FAR higher with the Dollar and Euro. They should be chasing the fiat market instead, it's full of malicious scum! BitLicense should be focused on Dollar-businesses instead of crypto!

nero987

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I'm wondering how many of those bitcoins actually change owner during these transactions...

How about faucets? They have a lot of microtransactions, but all combined, i think they also represent a large volume?...

Envrin

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Conducting business. People paying employees / contractors, hosting, media buys, other services, etc.

Wary

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Quote from: lottery248 on August 17, 2015, 08:49:21 PM

idk.
likely they are come from variety, especially gambling on chain.
or i know the bitcoin mixing matter, because bitcoin mixing requires large amount of transactions.
or i can see the spamming transaction, i saw it everywhere.

Thanks. I've just tried to estimate mixer's volume. Assuming that most of long chains are produced by mixers, we see that mixers take 45% of all transactions.
(data from blockchain.info, "number of transactions" minus "number of transactions excluding long chains": (118-65)/118=0.45.
Assuming that it represent the same share in volume as all other transactions (yes, it's dubious assumption, but it's all I have Sad

) we get staggering 27M.

I've updated OP, put a table there.

jeffthebaker

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On chain gambling and mixing are what I would assume as by far the largest contributors. However, it is my educated guess that local trading either through localbitcoins or another means could potentially cause for a large amount of transactions, especially considering that some people are potentially trading 6 figures or more in single transactions.

tadakaluri

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The 98% should be regular transactions like job payments, Pool payments for miners, crypto exchanges, shopping, mining equipment purchases, betting and gambling.

The 1% black market is nothing to consider.

Wary

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Quote from: Possum577 on August 17, 2015, 09:19:37 PM

How are you arriving at 1% white market?

Can you share the math, please show your work. Grin

Numbers are in public domain, mine part is only calculating percentages.

Black%white market: http://cointelegraph.com/news/115137/bitcoin-xt-released-reddit-mods-accused-of-censorship
generally stable around US$300,000–$500,000 a day, far exceeding what had been previously reported.” BitPay's self-reported annual total, US$158.8 million, would produce a daily average of around US$435,000.

Total usd volume of transactions: https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd

It's all just estimates, of course, but it would do to figure out what is bitcoin's major current usage.

erpbridge

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I would say most of them would be holding, a lot of it being lost and the rest being used on gambling and exchanges. But why are you comparing this to the total supply as this is only the trading on a single day ?

randy8777

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by far the majority of tx value in bitcoin is due to gambling. i wouldn't be surprised if gambling accounts for at least 50% of the value.

gentlemand

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Quote from: Possum577 on August 17, 2015, 09:25:17 PM

I think he means how did the OP validate all if his percentages? The purpose if each transaction is not tracked on the blockchain (of course).

Ah. Right.

Bitpay publicise their figures. Dunno about Coinbase's merchant arm. I would've thought dark markets would account for a whole load more than $400k.

btccashacc

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Quote from: Wary on August 17, 2015, 08:46:29 PM

Recent report on bitcoin drug trade -about 400K$ a day
Bit Pay - about the same 400K$ a day
Blockchain info's estimated transaction volume 50-70M$ a day.

So, about 1% of bitcoin transactions - white market.
Another 1% - black market.
What are the remaining 98%? Gambling? Pron? Mixing? Transfer to&from exchanges? Spam?

how about new coin come from miner ?
every daynew bitcoin has mined with more people

forlackofabettername

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Quote from: Possum577 on August 17, 2015, 09:26:50 PM

Quote from: forlackofabettername on August 17, 2015, 09:24:14 PM

Quote from: Wary on August 17, 2015, 08:46:29 PM

Recent report on bitcoin drug trade -about 400K$ a day
Bit Pay - about the same 400K$ a day
Blockchain info's estimated transaction volume 50-70M$ a day.

So, about 1% of bitcoin transactions - white market.
Another 1% - black market.
What are the remaining 98%? Gambling? Pron? Mixing? Transfer to&from exchanges? Spam?

I'd think altcoin trading can make a couple of million on a good day ... so there you get another 2% to 20% of volume

And what facts do you have for your assumption?

2-20% might as well be a wild ass guess (or a super wild ass guess for those if you that love stupid acronyms).

Just ad up the 24h volumes of all altcoin markets and you get an idea. 90% of altcoin trades happens on btc markets and would involve btc being moved.

kingscrown

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http://fuk.io - check it out!

the rest is normal stuff u dont know about

Topic: Missing 98% (Read 1316 times)