Topic: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! - page 2. (Read 1376 times)

What would the incentive of the trolls be? They stand to have a chance at winning free bitcoin if they help achieve consensus, and the chance is greater if they help achieve 90% consensus. They have no incentive to block consensus. Come over the light side and join us at 90%! 

I don't know.  I think there will be trolls that try to screw up the experiment and 90% will be too hard to achieve.  Or people that just forget to come back and change their vote.  I think you guys should change to 75%!!  We still get a decent pay out with 75% consensus.  

Peter change your vote to 90%!! 

I'm picking 90%. My addy: 16mT7jrpkjnJBD7a3TM2awyxHub58H6r6Z

It means that the 50,000 bits will be paid out for sure.

If, instead, there is 90% consensus on the "90%" option, then the 50,000 bits will be paid out with a probability of 80% (i.e., there's a 20% chance that no one will get the money). 

Perhaps clarification would help. I'm not sure what you mean by 100% chance of winning? If we get 100% consensus on the 100% option, what does "100% chance of winning" mean?

Here's how I see it:

It would be fairly easy to get 50% consensus but then the payout is nil.  We should all pick something > 50%.

It would be almost impossible to get 100% consensus (esp. considering trolls) although the payout is highest.  We should all pick something < 100%.

Where is the sweet spot?  Hopefully this experiment tells us something.   

1BnAprNUBWyzawRgqusgoP5TgsmbDVdXmH 1 vote for 90%!

I don't see why I can't participate in my own game: 1BWZe6XkGLcf6DWC3TFXiEtZmcyAoNq5BW

I am donating 50,000 bits to this experiment (0.05 BTC).  These bits will be divided between 5 lucky participant (chosen at random) if everyone can come to consensus and win!

Here's how the game works:

- It takes 100% consensus on the "100%" option to have a 100% chance of winning
- ...90% consensus on the "90%" option to have a 80% chance of winning
- ...80% consensus on the "80%" option to have a 60% chance of winning
…
- ...50% consensus on the "50%" option to have a  0% chance of winning
- You may change your vote as many times as you like

The poll will close when either:

(a) consensus has been reached on any one of the options AND at least 40 votes were cast.
(b) Poll closes August 28, 2015, 01:08:08 AM UTC with no consensus.

If the poll closes with consensus, then I will make a comment in this thread that the poll is officially closed and note the current block height as reported by blockchain.info.  We will pick a random number from the block at a height 2 blocks above this one.  A random number will be calculated like:

   rand = 100% (hash of coinbase TX) / 2^256

If

   rand < % chance of winning

Then five people will win 10,000 bits each.  To pick the winners, I will hash all of the bitcoin addresses with SHA256 and select the five addresses with a hash closest to the hash of the coinbase TX from above.  

OTHER RULES: Post your Bitcoin address in a comment.  This might be a little messy so I have the right to call off the experiment if the number of votes is vastly different than the number of bitcoin addresses posted.  I also have the right to adjust the rules if I realize I screwed something up!!  

LASTLY: If consensus has been reached and I don't notice it, someone please post a comment along with a screen shot.