Topic: Monte Carlo Spreadsheet Comparing Buy vs Mine BTC - page 2. (Read 558 times)
Ok,
July 2019 Difficulty 8T, price 11k
January 2021 Difficulty 18T, price 30k.
Growth in difficulty 225%, growth in price 300%
July 2019 Difficulty 8T, price 11k
July 2021 Difficulty 15T, price 32k
Growth in difficulty 90%, growth in price 300%
January 2019 Difficulty 5T, price 3k
January 2021 Difficulty 18T, price 30k.
Growth in difficulty 350%, growth in price 1000%.
So again, when did the difficulty growth outpaced the price 100% to 50%?
Really curious where you got that from,
I extensively modified and expanded a minimalist such spreadsheet from 2017.
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but other than that...what's with those numbers?
I made a video explaining things in some detail, including why the numbers you see are so conservative.The Monte Carlo search goes through a wide variety of scenarios including some very optimistic ones. If you don't like the inputs to the model, change them to suit yourself.
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...For a better comparison, you should look at past data, not random projections.
Look at what happened from July 2019 to January 2021
Really curious where you got that from, but other than that...what's with those numbers?
You put the difficulty at the maximum at 25T and the price at 17k, and you assumed for the miner a 75% uptime?
Whoever plans to do such a thing will probably not last all the 365 days of a period.
But, that aside, it makes no sense for bitcoin price to grow 50% year while the difficulty to double within the same period and this continuously over a long period of time, the moment an S19 miner with 3 cents power doesn't turn on profit who will add one more time the hashpower?
According to that in 10 years the difficulty would go up by 1E3, even with an increase in hardware efficiency of 5 times you would still need all the power in the world to feed that hashrate. Not going to happen!
For a better comparison, you should look at past data, not random projections.
You put the difficulty at the maximum at 25T and the price at 17k, and you assumed for the miner a 75% uptime?
Whoever plans to do such a thing will probably not last all the 365 days of a period.
But, that aside, it makes no sense for bitcoin price to grow 50% year while the difficulty to double within the same period and this continuously over a long period of time, the moment an S19 miner with 3 cents power doesn't turn on profit who will add one more time the hashpower?
According to that in 10 years the difficulty would go up by 1E3, even with an increase in hardware efficiency of 5 times you would still need all the power in the world to feed that hashrate. Not going to happen!
For a better comparison, you should look at past data, not random projections.
I found an old (2017) Buy vs Mine spreadsheet, fleshed it out a bit and populated it with variable ranges in a Monte Carlo add-on (Add-ons -> Causal Scenarios -> Launch).
Here's a video explaining the spreadsheet and rational for the numbers.
https://i.imgur.com/WCIh46a.png
Maybe I have a bad model and/or maybe I have the wrong distributions of uncertainty among the input variables, but it seems to me the easiest and most profitable thing to do is just plow your money into BTC -- by far.
Here's a video explaining the spreadsheet and rational for the numbers.
https://i.imgur.com/WCIh46a.png
Maybe I have a bad model and/or maybe I have the wrong distributions of uncertainty among the input variables, but it seems to me the easiest and most profitable thing to do is just plow your money into BTC -- by far.
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