Topic: Monty Hall and Let's Make A Deal problem - page 2. (Read 4710 times)
No, it is simply that the odds do not increase from 1 in 3 to 1 in 2. They increase from 1 in 3 to 2 in 3. You double your chances by switching, instead of the mere 50 percent increase that everyone supposes. Now look at the increase in difficulty of the Bitcoin generation and apply that.
blockexplorer could probably help you track down which door the bitcoins were behind.
You are on the TV show Lets Make a Deal. There are 1000 Bitcoins that Monty has placed behind one of three doors. He lets you choose a door. Then he opens one of the other two doors that he knows does not have the prize behind it. Now, he asks you whether you want to switch doors or keep the door you first chose. Statistically, should you stick with your initial choice, or switch?
Does anyone see the correlation between this scenario and Bitcoins?
Is it that, like Monty, many people who just gave away 1000 Bitcoins will be feeling pretty foolish soon? Just joking you people that applies to, those early trades were an important part of building the bitcoin economy, as are trades today. Does anyone see the correlation between this scenario and Bitcoins?
Then he opens one of the other two doors that he knows does not have the prize behind it.
Monty cannot open the door you selected, so his action cannot reveal any further information about what's behind that door. But his action does narrow down the options for the other doors, so you should always switch.Does anyone see the correlation between this scenario and Bitcoins?
Um, no. Do enlighten us please.So you agree with the prior two posters then as to the odds?
Then he opens one of the other two doors that he knows does not have the prize behind it.
Monty cannot open the door you selected, so his action cannot reveal any further information about what's behind that door. But his action does narrow down the options for the other doors, so you should always switch.Does anyone see the correlation between this scenario and Bitcoins?
Um, no. Do enlighten us please. 
Nefario is correct, but it is amazing the number of intelligent people who do not understand/accept this concept!
You should switch, your first choice is a one in 3 choice, when he removes one of the doors it turns into a one in 2 choice, greater odds so you should switch.
Many people would say there is no differencebut the odds are better ifyou switch.
Many people would say there is no differencebut the odds are better ifyou switch.
You are on the TV show Lets Make a Deal. There are 1000 Bitcoins that Monty has placed behind one of three doors. He lets you choose a door. Then he opens one of the other two doors that he knows does not have the prize behind it. Now, he asks you whether you want to switch doors or keep the door you first chose. Statistically, should you stick with your initial choice, or switch?
Does anyone see the correlation between this scenario and Bitcoins?
Does anyone see the correlation between this scenario and Bitcoins?
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