Topic: MORE THAN 3 YEARS! peak-to-peak - page 2. (Read 246 times)

i think it's different, it was long time ago and people was so not familiar with bitcoin and look bitcoin for nothing. But now every country in this world started to using blockchain or bitcoin system as a payments, so in my opinion it will not need 3 years to reach $20k, i'm sure this year it will back to 20k

I agree with the main points in your write up, but what makes me wonder is the fact that the price still hasn't stabilized, although the people who had come on board towards the end of last year just because they thought bitcoin was free magic internet money have already cut their losses and dumped their bitcoins.

I understand that there is considerable FUD right now because a lot of governments are not giving a clear indication in terms of how they will approach cryptocurrencies, but I'm thinking that most of the people who jumped on the band wagon have jumped off, and their coins have been picked up by relatively experienced people (i.e. people willing to hodl) so I would have thought that the price would have started to slowly stabilize by this point.

More people are aware of btc day by day and awareness of crypto currency in general is raising, having this in mind I do believe we might see another 20k$ this year. You can't compare old time with this one, before you had few people involved + like one and few exchanges and lower volume. Today we have more exchanges, more people registering day by day to trade which causes some of them to limit registrations or to restrict new users until they upgrade their server. Which to me shows that there is a demand for crypto currency in general.

If bitcoin doesn't reach 20k$ again, I am sure some other alts will try to flip place with btc then as this is not some trend that will go just like that. Dumping from 20k$ till like 8k$ is nothing and this doesn't scares me at all. I would be concerned however if price dumped till 1k well then I'd be skeptic about price returning to 20k mark.

Speculation and people desire to get quick over night, but they fall to see that to become a millionaire with small investment you had to hold and believe for a long time. Which is really hard thing to do.

I'd go along with that

Pure idiocy.  That is the main driver of BTC prices.  Expect more idiocy in the future. 

Certainly the struggle for me is always to try to split emotion from logic. This includes both hope and fear. My best prediction is that prices will continue to increase, but I'm certainly prepared to admit that my views are influenced by emotion.

As I say, I've not been here a year yet so I'm a relative newcomer- I'd be interested to hear your opinion on the main drivers of the price rise and fall, and how this may play out in future. We learn partly from our mistakes, and partly from the lessons taught by those who have experienced more.

This is called 'wishful thinking'.  You just want this to happen.

This is a nice summary, and I agree with what you have said, EXCEPT from $20k arriving sooner than we think.

There were times over the last few months where the mempool was so backed up, many people gave up even attempting to transfer/move their coins. Bitcoin market dominance is at an all time low of 34%. Bitcoin is slipping, and people know it. Yes, the overall trend for the market as a whole is upwards, and I'm still very bullish about crypto in general, but I'm not sure how long Bitcoin can maintain its number 1 spot. It has first mover advantage, but not much else going for it. It is used widely to trade alts, but Ethereum is rapidly taking over this market. There are other coins offering smart contracts, fee-less transaction, instant transactions, staking, ASIC-resistance, etc, etc.

With news circulating of various exchanges in the process of allowing trading directly between fiat and alts, we need lightning network to be a success, and a success SOON. I think it will be a while before we see $20k again. But that's just one guys opinion. Who knows.  

I think the current situation is different.
What we saw in late November/ early December was a massive influx of new people who had read all the news reports of bitcoin surging in value, and wanted in. This I believe was the main cause of the huge price rise. All big rises tend to be followed by a fall, and what happened was that as soon as the price dropped, these people had lost money and a lot of them panicked, and sold to cut their losses, which triggered further sells, and then experienced traders jumped in to short their coins, exacerbating the drop. And this was pattern was repeated in more extreme fashion in the altcoins rising almost vertically and then dropping just as quickly in Jan/early Feb. This is all due to the fact that crypto is gaining mainstream attention, which is why we also have governments jumping in to have their say every couple of days. This government/media FUD is in my opinion a symptom of the price swings, not the cause.

So I think the current situation is unprecedented - it is the first pains of interaction between crypto and the mainstream. Crypto will grow, mainstream adoption will come, but there will no doubt be more drama along the way.

Of course I may be wrong (I have limited experience and have not yet been here a year), but I believe that $20k will arrive sooner than people think. The overall trend is still upwards, and this will continue through 2018.

Consider the volume of Bitcoin users then than today. Also why did Bitcoin crashed then than today. We know that the volume of Bitcoin users now is increasing rapidly than 2013-2016. With this alone, we could conclude that it won't take more than 3 years just to reach again our ATH. I am optimistic about Bitcoin and I think that Bitcoin will reach $20,000 within this year. But if it won't, that's fine with me. I always wanted Bitcoin to increase steadily. Even if it's slow, at least it's stable.

Last time, BTC price took more than 3 years to return to its peak.  How many years will it take, if ever, for BTC to return to $20,000?