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Topic: Mt. Gox craziness (Read 10114 times)

newbie
Activity: 15
Merit: 0
September 15, 2010, 07:50:31 PM
#22
I think it is worth pointing out that the actual volume of the odd trades on 9/14 was miniscule.  The total cost in USD was $0.022987; that's right, just over 2 cents.  Details:

{"date":1284488277,"price":0.07,"amount":0.086}
{"date":1284489530,"price":0.1,"amount":0.01}
{"date":1284490532,"price":0.106,"amount":0.047}
{"date":1284490616,"price":0.11,"amount":0.036}
{"date":1284491010,"price":0.12,"amount":0.025}
{"date":1284491740,"price":0.175,"amount":0.023}

price is the USD/BTC conversion rate, amount is the number of BTC traded.
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 504
September 15, 2010, 09:06:47 AM
#21
If you place a Bid for 1,000btc @ $0.175 each and also have $0.00 balance in your mtgox.com account, then there will be an inactive bid for 1,000btc.
If you had or place an ask for xbtc @ $y and a trade occurs involving the asked amount, then you will have $ balance in your mtgox.com account which will then activate your previously inactive bid, or at least part of the bid will become active and the remaining amount that cannot be accounted for, due to lack of enough funds, will remain inactive.

Additionally, it appears this may also show signs of some sort of bug.

e.g. if lowest ask is xbtc @ $0.07 and an  ask for 10btc @ $1.00 become active or is placed, will the bid match the lowest ask and result in a trade for 10btc @ $0.07 each for total cost of $0.70?  Or will the trade result in 10btc @ $1.00 each for total cost of $10.00?  Based on what happened, it appears that if you were to, right now, bid for 10btc @ $10.00 each, that you would buy 10btc for a total cost of $100.00.  I am not willing to test this theory to confirm, however. ^_^
legendary
Activity: 1136
Merit: 1001
September 15, 2010, 08:43:11 AM
#20
The really high trades are because the someone had an order that was inactive for those prices. He didn't have $ so it wasn't an issue until someone bought some of his BTC. And then his orders were filled at that high price. I should probably change it so an order that goes from inactive to active is treated as a new order.

I don't understand. How can you make an order inactive? Did someone get to sell coins at 0.10, 0.17, etc? Did someone buy coins at 0.10?
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 504
September 15, 2010, 03:38:49 AM
#19
The really high trades are because the someone had an order that was inactive for those prices. He didn't have $ so it wasn't an issue until someone bought some of his BTC. And then his orders were filled at that high price. I should probably change it so an order that goes from inactive to active is treated as a new order.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 251
Firstbits: 1duzy
September 15, 2010, 03:12:12 AM
#18

Another weirdness today.

There seems to have been trades at 0.1, 0.106, 0.11,  0.175
but without filling any of the intermediate asks allong the way.
The general level staying about 0.062.

What is going on?

(Guessing from the graph the trades happened at about 20:00 on 14th September 2010.)

full member
Activity: 183
Merit: 100
September 06, 2010, 02:39:33 PM
#17
Trading strategy, bollocks.  this was a fat finger error.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1014
Strength in numbers
August 30, 2010, 10:55:41 PM
#16
If the average price was .055 today, and it was probably higher since the bulk of offers were bunched up near the high end, then the 34k traded was worth about $1870USD.
full member
Activity: 141
Merit: 100
August 30, 2010, 09:41:41 PM
#15
More than that.. I don't have all the numbers in front of me, but probably $1200-$1400.. One day this will be a tiny blip in the bitcoin trading universe. : ).
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1010
August 30, 2010, 08:12:19 PM
#14
It wasn't neogold or whatever that guys name is. I thought it was fraud at first but it is actually someone with some trading strategy that I don't quite understand yet.

Hmm.  Well, then maybe I could still end up with some more once nenolod (?) checks his email; and whoever this guy was just really needed a grand in a hurry.  Maybe he was short for his mortgage.

So that was a grand worth of bitcoins? Shocked
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1014
Strength in numbers
August 30, 2010, 08:01:11 PM
#13
I suppose one might try to reset market prices.

If so, apparently you need a lot more bitcoins than 30,000 to do so, apparently.

Maybe he was trying to drive down the price by selling to himself via a second account, hoping the new price would stick.  If so, he lost a good number of his own coins in the attempt, and failed to have a lasting effect.  I bet he won't try that again, although some other person might come up with the same idea later on.

Maybe, but he did sell a bunch to me at a great rate. So that isn't costless by any means. 
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1001
August 30, 2010, 07:55:05 PM
#12
I suppose one might try to reset market prices.

If so, apparently you need a lot more bitcoins than 30,000 to do so, apparently.

Maybe he was trying to drive down the price by selling to himself via a second account, hoping the new price would stick.  If so, he lost a good number of his own coins in the attempt, and failed to have a lasting effect.  I bet he won't try that again, although some other person might come up with the same idea later on.
full member
Activity: 141
Merit: 100
August 30, 2010, 07:20:00 PM
#11
I suppose one might try to reset market prices.

If so, apparently you need a lot more bitcoins than 30,000 to do so, apparently.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1014
Strength in numbers
August 30, 2010, 06:46:22 PM
#10
It wasn't neogold or whatever that guys name is. I thought it was fraud at first but it is actually someone with some trading strategy that I don't quite understand yet.

Hmm.  Well, then maybe I could still end up with some more once nenolod (?) checks his email; and whoever this guy was just really needed a grand in a hurry.  Maybe he was short for his mortgage.

He could have got ~10% more just by waiting a few hours. Stolen coins occurred to me, but he'd only be in a hurry if the theft was from you or someone you would take them back for, so I guess you (MtGox) would know.
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1001
August 30, 2010, 05:51:00 PM
#9
It wasn't neogold or whatever that guys name is. I thought it was fraud at first but it is actually someone with some trading strategy that I don't quite understand yet.

Hmm.  Well, then maybe I could still end up with some more once nenolod (?) checks his email; and whoever this guy was just really needed a grand in a hurry.  Maybe he was short for his mortgage.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1022
August 30, 2010, 04:54:49 PM
#8

"Crazy trading strategy" was my guess.

mtgox and BCM are both thinly traded markets, by any conventional definition;  we just don't have that much money moving through bitcoins at present.

So any "real world" investor easily has enough cash to spike the market -- in either direction -- over a short time period.
full member
Activity: 185
Merit: 102
August 30, 2010, 04:24:30 PM
#7
It wasn't neogold or whatever that guys name is. I thought it was fraud at first but it is actually someone with some trading strategy that I don't quite understand yet.
full member
Activity: 141
Merit: 100
August 30, 2010, 04:22:46 PM
#6
I had tiered out my buy orders, so I picked up some on the way down, but not nearly as many as he sold.

Standard market movement theories distinguish between short and long term market movement -- if I recall my market math properly, he should have moved the long term price down something like .15 cents or so, if bitcoins act like a security. Looks like this is roughly what happened, although the 'short term' was pretty darn short in this case. : ).

legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1001
August 30, 2010, 04:16:24 PM
#5


Wow, cool. I'm so glad I had a lowball offer in. He didn't get to my really low one though. Is 30k really all he had?

Yeah, I'm kinda kicking myself now because I didn't consider such a possibilty, and didn't have a lowball offer in waiting.  I doubt that 30k is all that he had in total, but my understanding is that he already gave away much of it in an attempt to demostrate that Bitcoins were subject to manipulations.  Of course, we already knew that one could manipulate the price for as long as your supply of bitcoins and your willingness to lose money held up.  I'm willing to bet his nerve gave out before his store of bitcoins did.

You can bet I'll have an offer in waiting should some other guy with something to prove comes along.
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1010
August 30, 2010, 03:25:23 PM
#4
Finally got some bitcoins! Thanks to whoever sold bitcoins on the cheap.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1014
Strength in numbers
August 30, 2010, 03:04:33 PM
#3
Volume: 30,000 BTC.. Low price $.03x... It looks like somebody really wanted to sell some bitcoins.


This might have been my fault.  I sent that guy who tried to break the system back in April a solicitation for his remaining coins, since they were "worthless".  I wanted to see how he might respond to the new conditions, and if he actually sent me the coins, all the better.  Looks like he decided to attempt to break the system again.

[edit]  And it looks like all that he accomplished with his 30K bitcoins was to sell them at half price and move the market price for a short while.  He didn't send me any, that much I know.

Wow, cool. I'm so glad I had a lowball offer in. He didn't get to my really low one though. Is 30k really all he had?
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