There are a ton of investors waiting on the sidelines and all they want is some closure to this ongoing drama and for the bottom to be found and the worst priced in before they buy. So any end to the mtgox ordeal is bullish. There may be a short term downwards movement due to panic but ultimately upwards.
Who are these 'ton of investors'? Joe Sixpack turned on the news and thinks Bitcoin is dead. Any financial institution worth a damn won't touch Bitcoin with a 10 foot pole long after the dust has settled. Any present or future business that accepts Bitcoin is a net seller of Bitcoins, so count those out. Emerging markets are already painting it as an elaborate ponzi and in some cases banning it. There is still a ton of stolen coins waiting to be dumped.
The taint of this news will not be washed by some Reddit headline of a donut shop down the street accepting BTC. As far as the mainstream perception goes, Bitcoin has a crapton of PR to do until it can shakeoff this colossal fuckup - the fact that some stupid CEO is actually responsible for it has little meaning outside of the in-the-know folks who are already a part of the Bitcoin community.
I ask you again, who are these 'ton of investors' you speak of?
- Every bear and bull who has sold and is waiting to rebuy.
- The ridiculously overextended short interest on bitfinex.
- Second Market
- Anyone who has become aware of bitcoin in the past 3 months but has been waiting for the boom, bust, and reversal to complete before buying in.
- My followers, who I have had on call about this. They are waiting with large sums of fiat.
- The insane buyers on Bitstamp who drove it up from 400 to 600 and put tons of fiat on the order book.
- The bitcoin bank in cyprus just opened.
- People who will start buying into the new ATM machines
- Any banker or wealthy person who has become aware and is waiting to take a gamble at this when the time is right.
- [ill let some bulls continue this list her, because im actually waiting to rebuy myself, so i wont put too much eeffort]
Screw what Joe Sixpack and Mainstread Media think. They are the ultimate contrarian indicator. Dont you get it? When public sentiment is low is the BEST time to buy. I want to buy low BEFORE public sentiment is good. Once public sentiment is good, prices will be driven up astronomically, and it will soon be time to SELL, not buy.
Eventually regulated exchanges in the United States which function like stock markets will be launched. When that happens, people will forget all about mtgox and those will be seen as bitcoin's kindergarten days, before the price blasts into space.
I have two major issues with Bitcoin being something that anyone would want to invest into at these prices:
1) The price has not gone down nearly enough given the recent light of events. The most well known Bitcoin exchange being now synonymous with one of the biggest financial thefts/losses in history is one step shy of the worst possible news that could happen - which is some flaw in the Bitcoin software itself.
2) Not only has Bitcoin's acceptance/breakthrough efforts have been set back significantly but the risk factor has also increased - who knows what will come of this development and the repercussions that governing agencies and others might impose. Such uncertainty, whether anything becomes of it, is still a factor that should weigh on the price because at a moment's notice some FUD could be created out of thin air relating to this situation and drive prices lower, which would be reasonable given the amount of fear in the air.
TLDR: Bitcoin price is still way too high given the calamity of the situation, the new risks now attached, and no foreseeable development in the near term that could entice investors to not 'miss the train'. Investing at these prices, IMHO, is pretty stupid.
