Topic: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions? - page 3. (Read 3760 times)

And it was really fun when the dumbass systems guys set up the new server and when migrating the dbase changed the schema.

large purchases coming in at 129.. what a good day for people to arbitrage if they could

I hope it hits $1. Then I will buy all the bitcoins I can

PREDICTION: LAG LAG FAG LAG

Shouldn't it be as trivial as installing the same dbase server software package on the new machine, popping 10 gigbit enet cards in there, pluggin it into your router and then changing one line of code that contains the address of the server?

I did a complex street algo in SAS and MSSQL that processed millions of records, you never knew when the half dozen or so dbases i'd submit queries/updates to would move to a new address.   So you write the fucker "high Level" .  I queried a local table for the address of each dbase i would hit, as even some times the dbases themselves moved to different servers while some stayed.

Maybe i oversimplify, thats probably not how it queries.

Opening around $80 and then down under $50 tomorrow with more wild fluctuations throughout the day.

They are probably rushing in more hardware and possibly bandwith.

It's really something you down wanna do while systems are running at full capacity, as it can easily introduce errors.

If they actually have used only one machine, the trading software is likely to be designed for that. If so - my bet would be that they have brought in a new machine that can handle a lot more traffic.

Best case scenario would be that they have a system that is scalable, and that they just needed some time for installment/testing.
Guess they can afford a blade-stack by now.:-)

well, it's trading between 55 and 80 right now on various other exchanges....  so there would be an arb opportunity to sell if the gox bids were significantly higher than say 70, and buy back on other exchanges for short profit.    The arb-bots and arb-traders should have some fun here.

MtGox's posted reason for halting trade was  "to allow the market to cooldown following the drop in price"... they later said they would be upgrading their db servers.

To me, this says they were trying to support the price much as trading curbs kick in on NYSE during a crash.

There could be some surprises on the order book also. Remember things are very different now than after the first bitcoin bubble pop, with VC and other investors indicating interest.  If you're a VC and ready to buy bitcoin at 200, are you going to lose interest in buying it below 100?  

The Vinklevii twins announced (around 2pm?) they are major backers of bitcoin, and said they're buying the  dip...

I wouldn't doubt that during the halt, some phone calls were made, and buyers solicited to prop up the price.

I wouldn't be surprised to see big bids supporting price at major levels, say $60...  

Finally, there should be heavy load and wild swings for a while. At some point it will be clear whether the new db can handle the load, after which the lag will diminish, and prices will stabilize after a classic consolidation triangle pattern.

Which brings us to tomorrow, and next week.

There are 15k users backlog in the mtgox verification queue.  Most of these represent small time speculators or investors who were eager to buy at $200.   Some of these will chicken out... but they don't already hold coins.  Others will see the dip as an opportunity and go ahead with their buying.   But overall, there will still be people standing in line to buy, which should begin price rising again....

How's that for a guess?

I thought I saw on another thread that yes, they did have the front end and the DB on the same box. Moving the DB to another machine *should* be a trivial task, but when dealing with mission critical components making sure it all works properly means caution and testing.

If the database upgrade is a simple swap for more power (better CPUs, more RAM, faster drives) then yes it can be done in 12 hours.

[12 years as a programmer, with the last 5 of them working on a large web platform.]

disable ALL APIS please for the next 24 hours
but does gox ever listen

mtgox.. is reopening slowly.
guess what.!!
still plenty of .01 btc trades going through. what is wrong with gox

Price will fall to 40 and after that will climb back to ~ 200 $ in the next 24h if we don't get hit by the lag again.

naturalnews is mainstream media? humph... news to me.

chaos is my only prediction.

oh btw, whats gox's policy on num of confirms?  Sending in da coins in case of a big run.

price just changed btw...now 127...how can that be if there is no trading...

Oh man their setup is such crap, its like a monet, the more you look at it the more of a mess you see.

Thats all the confirm i need.  Mt Gox will trade for 10 minutes and then lag, then sell off, then suspend trading.

What kind of dbase upgrade could they have done in 12 hours.  Swapped out the mechanical to ssd in their raid array? (As if they should have done this already)

Thoughts?  Was the dbase access the bottleneck?  Did they have the trading front end running on the same box as the dbase?  (As if they shouldn't have put that into 2 boxes already).

Maybe they went out and bot those PCIe Ram Disk cards?  (With 500K/day of revenue, shouldn't they have done that already).

The fact that they CAN upgrade the dbase in 12 hours scares me to begin with!

IT guys thoughts?

Well, there is allegedly thousands of new accounts (cause of the trade engine failure), so perhaps these new account holders will buy up the coins at the low prices causing a run-up.

OR

Those that acquired the coins at a higher price will want to take their lumps and walk away (sell).

Ultimately, unless we get another DDoS or other form of manipulation, the market will decide.

I'm making coffee right now for the fireworks.

^^ +1 I laughed too,

I found this hilarious.  Thank you sir.