Don't believe the hype...
it is very clear, 90% of them will just throw their bitcoins in a bear market because they have waited long enough for the bitcoin assets they have.
I think institutions like Fortress will need to buy more claims personally in order to average into further to their long-term investment, as they started acquiring them from creditors in March 2021 when price was at $60+ for a 20% discount. So they started buying at around $40K to $50K thinking they were buying a decent discount, while now price is half that. Are they really going to sell for a 50% loss is the question here.
I also think 90% of them already sold their claims on over a year ago, so I agree with you to some degree. But not convinced the likes of Fortress are going to sell their coins at half price after waiting a year to receive them, more likely they and buy more claims at lower prices after the significant error or acquiring them at the top of the bull market. We still have no idea how many claims have already been sold, but I imagine most.
I know that I sold some BTC around $40K that I expect to get back from mtgox. It's quite possible that I will hold onto the BTC I get from gox and maybe even buy more if the price dips again. Saying that people will all sell might not be accurate. A good point about the big boys using this opportunity to scoop BTC also. That may make the price rise...
Thanks for your reply on the subject, since you are a creditor so have some accurate information to provide. Do you mind me asking if you got the offer of the "early settlement" or otherwise, and whether it included selling the claim to the likes of Fortress or others that were acquiring those claims? Obviously not looking for specifics, just trying to understand the situation a little better, which still remains very vague.
I would disagree that 90% of mtgox depositors have already sold their claims. I think the actual number is probably closer to 5%, but that's just my guess.
I realise 90% of creditors might not have sold, but I fail to understand how if they chose not to sell to those acquiring the claims when price was $50K+ why they would sell a year later when price has dropped over 50%. Maybe it's to do with the discount as well as early settlements reducing the overall return from the distribution? But either way it seems a little strange to me as an outsider to the case why creditors would sell now and not earlier when they were given the opportunity, even at a reduced rate as well as reduced overall return. Hence for those who wanted rid of their coins, they had ample opportunity to do so it seems.
In any event, I still haven't received any news that BTC is being distributed, and still have no idea where this rumor that everyone was getting their BTC back today came from.
I honestly think it was nothing more than a FUD based rumour (that worked well). The price fell and it gave the opportunity for others to liquidate long positions.
Even if it were true, the amount isn't that much, enough for everyone to make it like a very big deal, saying it crashes BTC to half of its price and such. I just don't get why everyone keeps saying that. Follow the same narrative everywhere without even checking the BTC's 24h trading volume to get a sense. Sure, I also think it'll hurt the BTC price if they release it in one goes but not as much hurt as everyone thought.
Indeed, the amount is only around 10% of daily trading volume, assuming that volume isn't grossly inflated, as well as assuming the Bitcoin will be sold the same day, then it won't leave much of a mark on the market compared to other high selling days. If I had to guess it wouldn't cause a 50% drop in price, but more like 10-20% at worst, assuming it's all sold same day as released (which turns out isn't the case).
