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Topic: Mt. Gox USD 365-day change is now positive... when will it become negative? (Read 3884 times)

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1016
Strength in numbers
For a year at least!
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077
Chart. We're back in the positives now, but for how long? Actually, probably for a while yet, considering how the 2011 trendline is flat down until December.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
bitcoin hundred-aire
this "indicator" is going to be VERY positive soon Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
worthless data is worthless.

interesting data is interesting

It's not useful, I'll give you that.
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
worthless data is worthless.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077
I've been wondering the same thing. Chart time:



(I apologize for the bad quality; these charts are screenshots and the Linux charting programs just can't compete with the Windows ones I used.)
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077
Updates for this chart will be intermittant from now on, and not daily, until I find a good PIL-compatible charting library.


Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Left y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago; Right y-axis: price in USD
Black line: 2012, Grey line: 2011
Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077
Skipped yesterday, so this is actually two days ahead of the last chart. Sorry about that.


Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Left y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago; Right y-axis: price in USD
Black line: 2012, Grey line: 2011
Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077

Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Left y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago; Right y-axis: price in USD
Black line: 2012, Grey line: 2011
Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077
I'm not sure I agree with your Y-axis.  It's labeled as % change, but doesn't really represent that.  I would think what you have labeled as 100% should be 0% change, with positive and negative numbers instead of > 100 and < 100.  At the very least, the label should be changed to accurately describe what you are representing.
Negative numbers pose a problem because they can carry ambuigity, and don't reflect symmetry very well. I changed the label to "% of 2011" for the bubble watch chart. I think I'm going to scrap the mean too, because it isn't a long-range indicator anymore. Here's yesterday's chart:


Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Left y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago; Right y-axis: price in USD
Black line: 2012, Grey line: 2011
Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
I'm not sure I agree with your Y-axis.  It's labeled as % change, but doesn't really represent that.  I would think what you have labeled as 100% should be 0% change, with positive and negative numbers instead of > 100 and < 100.  At the very least, the label should be changed to accurately describe what you are representing.

I thought it kind of odd too, but I understand what he's getting at.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
I'm not sure I agree with your Y-axis.  It's labeled as % change, but doesn't really represent that.  I would think what you have labeled as 100% should be 0% change, with positive and negative numbers instead of > 100 and < 100.  At the very least, the label should be changed to accurately describe what you are representing.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
Sept 10th, but probably later

Sept 10th, but probably earlier

what's the pink line around 800%? EDIT: just read the text on the chart
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077
Here's the new "bubble watch" chart, with a balenced scale and beginning on April 1. Soon, the red bars will begin tumbling down; the only question now is how dramatically. It's also a bit bigger than the old one.


Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Magenta: mean value (linear); Y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago
Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077
Warning: scale change necessary by tommorow.
Notice: date is incorrect once again.


Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Magenta: mean value (linear); Y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago
Bright yellow: 2012-01-01; Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077
Warning: scale change necessary in very near future.
Notice: date is correct.


Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Magenta: mean value (linear); Y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago
Bright yellow: 2012-01-01; Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077
Warning: scale change necessary in very near future.
Notice: date is correct.


Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Magenta: mean value (linear); Y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago
Bright yellow: 2012-01-01; Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Shame on everything; regret nothing.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077
Warning: scale change necessary in near future.
Notice: date has not been updated, sorry.


Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Magenta: mean value (linear); Y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago
Bright yellow: 2012-01-01; Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

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