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Topic: Mtgox, Bitstamp "Let's calm down": 700, 550$. China "I don't give a fuck": 900$. - page 4. (Read 6548 times)

Terpie

full member

Activity: 174

Merit: 101

Quote from: bitcoinBull on November 19, 2013, 12:42:48 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on November 19, 2013, 12:12:18 PM

After all, arbitrage between exchanges seems to be slow and not very effective in the past.

Yes, that's because most exchanges are still relying 100% on bank transfers for moving fiat. The spreads will come down as more exchanges become ripple gateways (bitstamp was the first, kraken is next in line).

And that solves the problem of bank transfers, how?

antimattercrusader

sr. member

Activity: 308

Merit: 250

As far as I know, it's not hard to wire money our of China. I receive wires from China occasionally - once CampBX gets ACH online I may dabble in some arbitrage. I bet alot of other people will too, and the price will equalize.

bitcoinBull

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 826

Merit: 1001

rippleFanatic

Quote from: oda.krell on November 19, 2013, 12:12:18 PM

After all, arbitrage between exchanges seems to be slow and not very effective in the past.

Yes, that's because most exchanges are still relying 100% on bank transfers for moving fiat. The spreads will come down as more exchanges become ripple gateways (bitstamp was the first, kraken is next in line).

Nemesis

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: CoinHoarder on November 19, 2013, 12:21:18 PM

Quote from: Nemesis on November 19, 2013, 12:15:20 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on November 19, 2013, 12:12:18 PM

The disconnect is staggering, no? I mean, I got used to mtgox prices being 10% higher than bitstamp, but right now it's more than 20%, and China's price is just plain unreal considering how much lower Bitstamp is.

What do you expect to happen? China pulling the rest up again, or the Bitstamp pulling everyone down? Or will it stay the way it is? After all, arbitrage between exchanges seems to be slow and not very effective in the past.

Just another theory of mine:

Chinese buying BTC to transfer money/wealth oversea. Guess where do they dump their coins?

Ummm... it seems like there are much cheaper options for getting their money overseas. It seems unlikely to me that they take a huge haircut (>$1000 -> <$750).

I think the more realistic scenario is that foreigners (non-chinese) will transfer their BTCs over to BTC China seeing they can get over $300 more per Bitcoin at the moment than Mt. Gox. This will level out the market in between MtGox and BTC China. The rest of the world will adjust the Chinese market price. I think a lot of Chinese buyers on BTC China are about to get burned.

Those cheapers options are not actually cheap if you consider the risk of having caught. I've done a large transfer of USD funds from China to US. I had to use "middle man" service in HK. And its VERY risky.

Other than having connection with Chinese Officials you cant do any transfer in large amount for personal banking.

CoinHoarder

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1484

Merit: 1026

In Cryptocoins I Trust

Quote from: Nemesis on November 19, 2013, 12:15:20 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on November 19, 2013, 12:12:18 PM

The disconnect is staggering, no? I mean, I got used to mtgox prices being 10% higher than bitstamp, but right now it's more than 20%, and China's price is just plain unreal considering how much lower Bitstamp is.

What do you expect to happen? China pulling the rest up again, or the Bitstamp pulling everyone down? Or will it stay the way it is? After all, arbitrage between exchanges seems to be slow and not very effective in the past.

Just another theory of mine:

Chinese buying BTC to transfer money/wealth oversea. Guess where do they dump their coins?

Ummm... it seems like there are much cheaper options for getting their money overseas. It seems unlikely to me that they take a huge haircut (>$1000 -> <$750).

I think the more realistic scenario is that foreigners (non-chinese) will transfer their BTCs over to BTC China seeing they can get over $300 more per Bitcoin at the moment than Mt. Gox. This will level out the market in between MtGox and BTC China. The rest of the world will adjust the Chinese market price. I think a lot of Chinese buyers on BTC China are about to get burned.

Nemesis

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: Barek on November 19, 2013, 12:17:34 PM

Similar reasons.

Hard to get USD out of MtGox.
Hard to get CNY out of China.

With high enough arbitrage opportunities, I bet sooner or later someone will figure out how to take advantage and prices will be closer.

I can tell you that someone right now.... having known China country.....

That someone is simply Chinese officials, possibly working for their central banks.

The Chinese ppl know their officials can transfer millions USD out of the country. BTC will even make it easier and more discrete.

Zangelbert Bingledack

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1000

Price was rising too fast to make arbitrage profitable except in the more extreme cases. The lost time exposed to Bitcoin just hurt too much. If the price stops rising we'll see more arbitrage I think.

gizmoh

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1000

China really doesn't give a fuck, and will scoop cheap coins on Stamp and lift us up.

oda.krell

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: N12 on November 19, 2013, 12:14:48 PM

Aahh, the efficiency of a "billion dollar market". Cheesy

Cheesy

Wait, is it 9 billion or 6 billion?

That one cuts both ways, no?

"Aah, the inefficiency of the legacy banking system, and political limitations of transfer of wealth that allow such a disconnect to persist." Cheesy

Cheesy

Barek

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Similar reasons.

Hard to get USD out of MtGox.
Hard to get CNY out of China.

With high enough arbitrage opportunities, I bet sooner or later someone will figure out how to take advantage and prices will be closer.

NorbyTheGeek

full member

Activity: 201

Merit: 100

Quote from: Nemesis on November 19, 2013, 12:15:20 PM

Just another theory of mine:

Chinese buying BTC to transfer money/wealth oversea. Guess where do they dump their coins?

See, you're guilty of using sound logic on a speculation forum. Shame on you. Wink

Wink

Zangelbert Bingledack

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1000

2011 bubble meets 2013 bubble. Clash of the bubbles. China want to have its 2011 insanity and Gox and Stamp were too recently burned and are exercising moderation. What will be the result? It may just be an average of the two, or it may be radically unpredictable.

Nemesis

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: oda.krell on November 19, 2013, 12:12:18 PM

The disconnect is staggering, no? I mean, I got used to mtgox prices being 10% higher than bitstamp, but right now it's more than 20%, and China's price is just plain unreal considering how much lower Bitstamp is.

What do you expect to happen? China pulling the rest up again, or the Bitstamp pulling everyone down? Or will it stay the way it is? After all, arbitrage between exchanges seems to be slow and not very effective in the past.

Just another theory of mine:

Chinese buying BTC to transfer money/wealth oversea. Guess where do they dump their coins?

N12

donator

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1010

Aahh, the efficiency of a "billion dollar market". Cheesy

Cheesy

Wait, is it 9 billion or 6 billion?

oda.krell

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

The disconnect is staggering, no? I mean, I got used to mtgox prices being 10% higher than bitstamp, but right now it's more than 20%, and China's price is just plain unreal considering how much lower Bitstamp is.

What do you expect to happen? China pulling the rest up again, or the Bitstamp pulling everyone down? Or will it stay the way it is? After all, arbitrage between exchanges seems to be slow and not very effective in the past.

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