Author

Topic: mtgox claims $5 to $20 million per day incoming funds... (Read 7672 times)

sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
Unless you think having money flowing into MtGox, and no money flowing out is somehow sustainable.

We'll see how it goes when there is 20 million going out, and 1 million going in.

1. Plenty of money is being minted to sustain this.

2. Not going to happen


The only reason why so much money came in, and so less out is:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/mtgox-withdrawal-delays-180134
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/mtgox-withdrawal-bank-account-still-validating-168843
(...)
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Okay bears now is your chance to be creative on how $5 to $20 million incoming cash per day into bitcoin will send the price lower.....LAWL  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Easy - "MtGox is lying"
 Cool Cool Cool

MagicTux looks at all that money and decides to take the Pattaya option?
sr. member
Activity: 407
Merit: 250
11,000,000 BTC

VS.

1,500,000,000,000,000 USD (including derivatives)


yeah I think bitcoin is going to go up lol

That's just bubble talk.

sr. member
Activity: 407
Merit: 250
Unless you think having money flowing into MtGox, and no money flowing out is somehow sustainable.

We'll see how it goes when there is 20 million going out, and 1 million going in.

1. Plenty of money is being minted to sustain this.

2. Not going to happen

You seem to confuse money flowing into MtGox with bitcoin economy.  Piling money on MtGOx does nothing.  If each day 20 million enters and 1 million leaves, after 100 days you will have $1.9 billion on MtGox.  Why?

There are only two things that can happen to that money:
-it can be withdrawn
-it can be lost to transaction fees

Notice that I did not put "it can enter the bitcoin economy" on that list, because if somebody buys $20 million of bitcoins, somebody sold $20 million (ok $20 minus 1% fee) bitcoins, and the amount of money on MtGox stays the same.

So, no, this $20 in $1 out situation on MtGox can not last for very long.  Why would it?



legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
11,000,000 BTC

VS.

1,500,000,000,000,000 USD (including derivatives)


yeah I think bitcoin is going to go up lol

Smoothie on trolling spree Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
Unless you think having money flowing into MtGox, and no money flowing out is somehow sustainable.

We'll see how it goes when there is 20 million going out, and 1 million going in.

1. Plenty of money is being minted to sustain this.

2. Not going to happen

11,000,000 BTC

VS.

1,500,000,000,000,000 USD (including derivatives)


yeah I think bitcoin is going to go up lol
hero member
Activity: 634
Merit: 500
Unless you think having money flowing into MtGox, and no money flowing out is somehow sustainable.

We'll see how it goes when there is 20 million going out, and 1 million going in.

1. Plenty of money is being minted to sustain this.

2. Not going to happen
sr. member
Activity: 407
Merit: 250
I remember some days ago a bear said that for the price to hold 100$ AND if all the miners sell their coins we need 360K USD of incoming funds a day. He meant that it was unsustainable. If there is 20 MILLIONS USD of incoming funds everyday you do the math yourself...

I would predict that after a period of this positive Gox imbalance, there will be a period of negative flow.  Unless you thing having money flowing into MtGox, and no money flowing out is somehow sustainable.

We'll see how it goes when there is 20 million going out, and 1 million going in.


hero member
Activity: 634
Merit: 500
In another thread, rpietila seemed willing to make a bet that the price would not go below 115 $.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1919858

Not the side of the bet I want to take.

That's stupid, price will go below 115. The only interesting question is "when?"

rpietila is actually setting up a more complicated position than a bet that the price will never go below $115. Also, if you can prove that the price will at some point go below $115 then the market should immanentize this and cause the price per coin to be at or below $115 right now.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
I've actually made an offer of 10.000$ for less than 100$ @3month, see my posting history.

I don't know what to look for, but I feel like I would take the bet if I saw it. Could you PM me a link?
In another thread, rpietila seemed willing to make a bet that the price would not go below 115 $.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1919858

That's stupid, price will go below 115. The only interesting question is "when?"
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 286
Neptune, Scalable Privacy
I've actually made an offer of 10.000$ for less than 100$ @3month, see my posting history.

I don't know what to look for, but I feel like I would take the bet if I saw it. Could you PM me a link?
In another thread, rpietila seemed willing to make a bet that the price would not go below 115 $.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1919858
hero member
Activity: 634
Merit: 500
I've actually made an offer of 10.000$ for less than 100$ @3month, see my posting history.

I don't know what to look for, but I feel like I would take the bet if I saw it. Could you PM me a link?
hero member
Activity: 634
Merit: 500
I am willing to believe Gox on these figures, I posted this in a different thread, but it applies here too: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1891053

There are way more people who want in than want out, now we know just how wide the gap is.

As an aside, if we take the net money flow reported here at face value, (an average of 11.85 million per day) and distributed it across all Bitcoins currently in existence the price would rise by about $1 per day. If we distributed it across every Bitcoin currently for sale in Gox's orderbook (98.9k according to bitcoinity's wall chart) then the price would rise by $120 per day.  
member
Activity: 224
Merit: 10
I remember some days ago a bear said that for the price to hold 100$ AND if all the miners sell their coins we need 360K USD of incoming funds a day. He meant that it was unsustainable. If there is 20 MILLIONS USD of incoming funds everyday you do the math yourself...
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 1029
The funds will subside when the hype runs out.


oh its just gettin started my friend. just cuz we have heard about "the bitcoin" doesnt mean 90% of people have, more like 1%.

I agree...further even if people have heard of it only a fraction will buy in at this stage
full member
Activity: 144
Merit: 100
Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day

Outflows:
$300k to $1 million / day

That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.

Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.

Thoughts?
(emphasis added is mine)

Interesting, especially considering the post-crash consolidated market cap you introduce in a later post - however, I think this all relies on what price is chosen for "equilibrium," and that cannot be defined outside of the current market derived price.

No matter how we spin it, the price of bitcoin currently represents a storm of emotion, speculation, hype, and lacking infrastructure. There is no fair way to determine the "true" value of a bitcoin, or any good, outside of a market. And the market at this time suffers from so many exterior extremes, that the price at any one moment can not reasonably be taken as a stable equilibrium.

Just my take on the situation. I hope you continue to expand this analysis!
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
I see no reason for Mark to make this up. No sir, no reason at all. It's not like in the last two weeks mtgox made more money than in it's entire history. It's not like rapid appreciation and volatility is making him richer than Satoshi Nakamoto. Cmmon guys, is there was really a bubble that burst, would he be lying us ?

Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.

Gox made more during the high volume days than during the low volume days, the last week when the crash was in full force should be their highest grossing week ever, whether you calculate by total bitcoin/fiat volume. So using your own logic, Gox should try to create as many crashes as possible, rather than pleading people to calm down.

Besides, even if Gox's plan were to accumulate as many bitcoins as possible, and betting on its rise in exchange rate, the only place to cash out such a huge amount of bitcoins would be their own exchange. So if I were Mark, the best strategy seems to be just charging fees in dollars so they make money regardless of the price movement.

Not to say that you have no fact at all to back up your accusation.

Please educate yourself before you talk.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
I see no reason for Mark to make this up. No sir, no reason at all. It's not like in the last two weeks mtgox made more money than in it's entire history. It's not like rapid appreciation and volatility is making him richer than Satoshi Nakamoto. Cmmon guys, is there was really a bubble that burst, would he be lying us ?

Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.

Quoted for future bump.

legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 1029
There must be a lot of Fiat money then just sat in Gox accounts not being traded into bitcoins
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
I see no reason for Mark to make this up. No sir, no reason at all. It's not like in the last two weeks mtgox made more money than in it's entire history. It's not like rapid appreciation and volatility is making him richer than Satoshi Nakamoto. Cmmon guys, is there was really a bubble that burst, would he be lying us ?

Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.

Quoted for future bump.
newbie
Activity: 50
Merit: 0
I would hope he meant 10,000 USD since he used 3 zero after the decimal point.A 10$ bet would be laughable.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
I see no reason for Mark to make this up. No sir, no reason at all. It's not like in the last two weeks mtgox made more money than in it's entire history. It's not like rapid appreciation and volatility is making him richer than Satoshi Nakamoto. Cmmon guys, is there was really a bubble that burst, would he be lying us ?

Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.

Quoted for future bump.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
I've actually made an offer of 10.000$ for less than 100$ @3month, see my posting history.

Only $10?

Please dont waste our time.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
New envelope calculation! Grin

April 10th 2013: The bubble has reached its highest peak of 266 USD at a nominal market cap of 2614M USD (2.6 Billion $$$). The ensueing consolidation around 120 USD suggests a "true market cap" of 933M USD during the last peak if we take into account that roughly 33% of all coins in existence are currently inaccessible (lost) or will not move till some time after the next bubble (cold storage or long time savings) [1400M USD (1.4 Billion $$$)*0.66= 933M USD]

Since April 10th 2013 around 20M USD daily have flown into the Bitcoin economy through the exchanges, adding up to 280M USD to date or 30% of the "true market cap" (933M USD) of the bubble's peak.

May 10th 2013: One month later and 600M USD will have grown the Bitcoin economy, raising the level of April 10th' "true market cap" by 64% to 1533M USD. If there would be another bubble rocket by then it would have 64% more fuel to fligh to the sky.
If this day would mark another peak, it would range at 437 USD/BTC (1.64*266USD/BTC=437USD/BTC)


Can we assume that the market cap during a consolidation period after a bubble has burst indicates it's "true market cap"?

Can we also assume that the size of this true market cap indicates the hight of the next bubble?
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 286
Neptune, Scalable Privacy
You can deposit as much as you want. But impossible to withdraw. :-)

- It is easy to deposit $1,000,000 => ( 7,500 BTC )
- if you want to withdraw then limit is 100 BTC/DAY (2 month to withdraw)

Withrdaw USD ?
- wait weeks to get verified
- wait another week until they change limit
- $50k USD is monthly limit (20 months if you want to withdraw $1,000,000) or ask  Foreign and Commonwealth Office for APOSTILE and mail them to Gox
Yes i'm really pissed off with their arbitrary rules, why is it not necessary to verify with legal apostille documents when sending $1 million but is an obligation for withdrawals..
It's not really that big of a deal. I did it and my withdraw limit is now 40 000 BTC per day, didn't check the USD limit, but if you got that much cash you want to withdraw surely you can afford spending a couple of hours getting that apostile done.
If you want to withdraw fiat from Mt. Gox., you can buy bitcoins and sell them to a local dealer Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1552
Merit: 1047
You can deposit as much as you want. But impossible to withdraw. :-)

- It is easy to deposit $1,000,000 => ( 7,500 BTC )
- if you want to withdraw then limit is 100 BTC/DAY (2 month to withdraw)

Withrdaw USD ?
- wait weeks to get verified
- wait another week until they change limit
- $50k USD is monthly limit (20 months if you want to withdraw $1,000,000) or ask  Foreign and Commonwealth Office for APOSTILE and mail them to Gox
Yes i'm really pissed off with their arbitrary rules, why is it not necessary to verify with legal apostille documents when sending $1 million but is an obligation for withdrawals..
It's not really that big of a deal. I did it and my withdraw limit is now 40 000 BTC per day, didn't check the USD limit, but if you got that much cash you want to withdraw surely you can afford spending a couple of hours getting that apostile done.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day

Outflows:
$300k to $1 million / day

That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.

Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.

Thoughts?

You forget that the Bitcoin marketcap is not really the "real" marketcap. Many coins are lost or in cold storage. At least half were lost last time i heard. Which means that the marketcap of the movable coins is alot smaller than 1400M USD and that is why the price moves faster than 1% per day.

Good point! I guess "half" is a bit much, but 30% of those coins could probably regarded a save guess on the lost or unmovable amount of coins. That would take the current market cap from 1400M USD down to 933M USD.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1031
Rational Exuberance
People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep.

Relevant XKCD:
sr. member
Activity: 504
Merit: 250
I've actually made an offer of 10.000$ for less than 100$ @3month, see my posting history.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 286
Neptune, Scalable Privacy
I see no reason for Mark to make this up. No sir, no reason at all. It's not like in the last two weeks mtgox made more money than in it's entire history. It's not like rapid appreciation and volatility is making him richer than Satoshi Nakamoto. Cmmon guys, is there was really a bubble that burst, would he be lying us ?

Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.
Are you willing to bet 1 BTC on this?
sr. member
Activity: 504
Merit: 250
I see no reason for Mark to make this up. No sir, no reason at all. It's not like in the last two weeks mtgox made more money than in it's entire history. It's not like rapid appreciation and volatility is making him richer than Satoshi Nakamoto. Cmmon guys, is there was really a bubble that burst, would he be lying us ?

Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 286
Neptune, Scalable Privacy
Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day

Outflows:
$300k to $1 million / day

That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.

Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.

Thoughts?
It does not work like that. If you expect the price to grow 1 % per day, then everybody wants to join that market and they will do so even if they only get .5 or .1 % per day since this is higher than the so-called risk-free interest rate.

So the market participants will seek to find the equilibrium faster than you describe since this investment seems to beat most other investments.

And don't listen to Smoothie's analysis. He is obviously clueless about the most basic things in investments.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
a wolf in sheeps clothing. suckerfish
The funds will subside when the hype runs out.


oh its just gettin started my friend. just cuz we have heard about "the bitcoin" doesnt mean 90% of people have, more like 1%.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
The funds will subside when the hype runs out.

Nicely summarized Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
In other words, people don't tend to go through the trouble of sending money into MtGox if all they want to do is then pull that money out and buy bubble gum.  Grin

Sure, many of them will buy bitcoin. But many will sell them bitcoin too. I think it does not say anything about where the price will go.
member
Activity: 224
Merit: 10
Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day

Outflows:
$300k to $1 million / day

That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.

Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.

Thoughts?

You forget that the Bitcoin marketcap is not really the "real" marketcap. Many coins are lost or in cold storage. At least half were lost last time i heard. Which means that the marketcap of the movable coins is alot smaller than 1400M USD and that is why the price moves faster than 1% per day.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Amount of deposits in exchanges follows price rise: I agree
Positive feedback loop of price rise and deposit rise: I agree

Now pls mind the following:
When there is stagnating price or even falling price but still an increase of deposited amounts in exchanges, what does this entail?..
Correct, a powerful correction to the upside! Because all this fiat money only has one way to go once it is in the exchanges: -> ฿TC.

What does it entail?

Nothing about the future price. It's a lagging indicator. It says that there must have been a price rise in the past.  

I think you are letting your hopes speak over your ratio.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Like many indicators, money at the exchange is also a lagging indicator.

There is little money needed at the exchange to bid up the price. All that is needed is that people on average are bullish. This will make buyers more impatient than sellers, who take their time, and the price goes up.

Inversely, a lot of money at the exchange may not avoid the price going down. All that is needed is that people on average are bearish. This will make sellers more impatient than buyers, who take their time, and the price goes down.


Just like google trends, media coverage, or hashrate, more money at the exchange is a result from the price going up. Not a cause.

Sure there is a strengthening feedback loop, more media coverage, higher hashrate, more money at the exchange pushes up the price even more, but what needs to happen first is the price going up, and then all the rest follows.

Inversely, when the price goes down, there is a weakening feedback loop, less media coverage, less hashrate, and less money will come to the exchange, driving the price even lower.


Kind of - but when there is no money on MtGox then it will go down no matter how bullish people are - because there will be some bears and they'll push it down and vice versa when there is so much money then even if people just try out without really changing moods, but just checking the winds - even that can push the price up and I believe that this is what is just happening.

My theory is not 'kind of', it is either right or wrong.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Because the way the law is written, it's their duty to "know their customer". They know who they are, so they are more then happy to take your money. That's the safe part. Letting anyone withdraw money is when it's important to prove to the government they didn't send a million dollars out into some phoney bank account where the mafia paid some homeless guy to set up a bank account with a fake name in some crazy country. They can't stop that from happening, but they need to show the government the homeless guys ID at leat.

Thank you for explaining this.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1038
Trusted Bitcoiner
Man, the fact that that money's not going out means people are thinking about putting it back in.

I think we're on the verge of another bubble... already!

This time I'm betting we'll be going up, up, up, without the nasty crash of last time.




The fact that there is so little delay between those bubbles makes me think that this time we will have higher highs and probably higher lows then during the last bubble but not that much difference in between. Maybe we'll top out at 350$/BTC or so but we wont go to 1000$ straight away because not much has changed during the last bubble. Infrastructure still has to be built, money has to flow in, people have to wrap their heads around it before they invest.
After the coming bubble's burst we shoud be able to see the big underlying trend and trend channel that all the coming bubbles will follow for some time.
I envision something like that:


lol yes this is what i'm expecting as well.

its going to be a wild ride!
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
Some bullish news: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1cxdrr/reuters_tv_interview_with_mt_gox_in_tokyo/

Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day
Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day

That means that in April between $100 million and $400 million was added to the market. When confidence is restored, the price could go ballistic once again.

Nope. This means only that Mark Karpeles bought coins at higher price and now wants to sell them. Proof? Look at the current flat graph, he obviously has no fiat to initiate new swings.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME
You can deposit as much as you want. But impossible to withdraw. :-)

- It is easy to deposit $1,000,000 => ( 7,500 BTC )
- if you want to withdraw then limit is 100 BTC/DAY (2 month to withdraw)

Withrdaw USD ?
- wait weeks to get verified
- wait another week until they change limit
- $50k USD is monthly limit (20 months if you want to withdraw $1,000,000) or ask  Foreign and Commonwealth Office for APOSTILE and mail them to Gox
Yes i'm really pissed off with their arbitrary rules, why is it not necessary to verify with legal apostille documents when sending $1 million but is an obligation for withdrawals..

Because the way the law is written, it's their duty to "know their customer". They know who they are, so they are more then happy to take your money. That's the safe part. Letting anyone withdraw money is when it's important to prove to the government they didn't send a million dollars out into some phoney bank account where the mafia paid some homeless guy to set up a bank account with a fake name in some crazy country. They can't stop that from happening, but they need to show the government the homeless guys ID at leat.
legendary
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1000
You can deposit as much as you want. But impossible to withdraw. :-)

- It is easy to deposit $1,000,000 => ( 7,500 BTC )
- if you want to withdraw then limit is 100 BTC/DAY (2 month to withdraw)

Withrdaw USD ?
- wait weeks to get verified
- wait another week until they change limit
- $50k USD is monthly limit (20 months if you want to withdraw $1,000,000) or ask  Foreign and Commonwealth Office for APOSTILE and mail them to Gox
Yes i'm really pissed off with their arbitrary rules, why is it not necessary to verify with legal apostille documents when sending $1 million but is an obligation for withdrawals..
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME
You can deposit as much as you want. But impossible to withdraw. :-)

- It is easy to deposit $1,000,000 => ( 7,500 BTC )
- if you want to withdraw then limit is 100 BTC/DAY (2 month to withdraw)

Withrdaw USD ?
- wait weeks to get verified
- wait another week until they change limit
- $50k USD is monthly limit (20 months if you want to withdraw $1,000,000) or ask  Foreign and Commonwealth Office for APOSTILE and mail them to Gox

Somehow I think if you have 1 million dollars, and are willing to wire 1 million dollars to a company in Japan, I think you've got all these other bases covered.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
You can deposit as much as you want. But impossible to withdraw. :-)

- It is easy to deposit $1,000,000 => ( 7,500 BTC )
- if you want to withdraw then limit is 100 BTC/DAY (2 month to withdraw)

Withrdaw USD ?
- wait weeks to get verified
- wait another week until they change limit
- $50k USD is monthly limit (20 months if you want to withdraw $1,000,000) or ask  Foreign and Commonwealth Office for APOSTILE and mail them to Gox
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1001
Like many indicators, money at the exchange is also a lagging indicator.

There is little money needed at the exchange to bid up the price. All that is needed is that people on average are bullish. This will make buyers more impatient than sellers, who take their time, and the price goes up.

Inversely, a lot of money at the exchange may not avoid the price going down. All that is needed is that people on average are bearish. This will make sellers more impatient than buyers, who take their time, and the price goes down.


Just like google trends, media coverage, or hashrate, more money at the exchange is a result from the price going up. Not a cause.

Sure there is a strengthening feedback loop, more media coverage, higher hashrate, more money at the exchange pushes up the price even more, but what needs to happen first is the price going up, and then all the rest follows.

Inversely, when the price goes down, there is a weakening feedback loop, less media coverage, less hashrate, and less money will come to the exchange, driving the price even lower.


Kind of - but when there is no money on MtGox then it will go down no matter how bullish people are - because there will be some bears and they'll push it down and vice versa when there is so much money then even if people just try out without really changing moods, but just checking the winds - even that can push the price up and I believe that this is what is just happening.

Amount of deposits in exchanges follows price rise: I agree
Positive feedback loop of price rise and deposit rise: I agree

Now pls mind the following:
When there is stagnating price or even falling price but still an increase of deposited amounts in exchanges, what does this entail?..
Correct, a powerful correction to the upside! Because all this fiat money only has one way to go once it is in the exchanges: -> ฿TC.

In other words, people don't tend to go through the trouble of sending money into MtGox if all they want to do is then pull that money out and buy bubble gum.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
Like many indicators, money at the exchange is also a lagging indicator.

There is little money needed at the exchange to bid up the price. All that is needed is that people on average are bullish. This will make buyers more impatient than sellers, who take their time, and the price goes up.

Inversely, a lot of money at the exchange may not avoid the price going down. All that is needed is that people on average are bearish. This will make sellers more impatient than buyers, who take their time, and the price goes down.


Just like google trends, media coverage, or hashrate, more money at the exchange is a result from the price going up. Not a cause.

Sure there is a strengthening feedback loop, more media coverage, higher hashrate, more money at the exchange pushes up the price even more, but what needs to happen first is the price going up, and then all the rest follows.

Inversely, when the price goes down, there is a weakening feedback loop, less media coverage, less hashrate, and less money will come to the exchange, driving the price even lower.


Kind of - but when there is no money on MtGox then it will go down no matter how bullish people are - because there will be some bears and they'll push it down and vice versa when there is so much money then even if people just try out without really changing moods, but just checking the winds - even that can push the price up and I believe that this is what is just happening.

Amount of deposits in exchanges follows price rise: I agree
Positive feedback loop of price rise and deposit rise: I agree

Now pls mind the following:
When there is stagnating price or even falling price but still an increase of deposited amounts in exchanges, what does this entail?..
Correct, a powerful correction to the upside! Because all this fiat money only has one way to go once it is in the exchanges: -> ฿TC.
zby
legendary
Activity: 1594
Merit: 1001
Like many indicators, money at the exchange is also a lagging indicator.

There is little money needed at the exchange to bid up the price. All that is needed is that people on average are bullish. This will make buyers more impatient than sellers, who take their time, and the price goes up.

Inversely, a lot of money at the exchange may not avoid the price going down. All that is needed is that people on average are bearish. This will make sellers more impatient than buyers, who take their time, and the price goes down.


Just like google trends, media coverage, or hashrate, more money at the exchange is a result from the price going up. Not a cause.

Sure there is a strengthening feedback loop, more media coverage, higher hashrate, more money at the exchange pushes up the price even more, but what needs to happen first is the price going up, and then all the rest follows.

Inversely, when the price goes down, there is a weakening feedback loop, less media coverage, less hashrate, and less money will come to the exchange, driving the price even lower.


Kind of - but when there is no money on MtGox then it will go down no matter how bullish people are - because there will be some bears and they'll push it down and vice versa when there is so much money then even if people just try out without really changing moods, but just checking the winds - even that can push the price up and I believe that this is what is just happening.
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 1029
Man, the fact that that money's not going out means people are thinking about putting it back in.

I think we're on the verge of another bubble... already!

This time I'm betting we'll be going up, up, up, without the nasty crash of last time.




The fact that there is so little delay between those bubbles makes me think that this time we will have higher highs and probably higher lows then during the last bubble but not that much difference in between. Maybe we'll top out at 350$/BTC or so but we wont go to 1000$ straight away because not much has changed during the last bubble. Infrastructure still has to be built, money has to flow in, people have to wrap their heads around it before they invest.
After the coming bubble's burst we shoud be able to see the big underlying trend and trend channel that all the coming bubbles will follow for some time.
I envision something like that:




This +9000
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Like many indicators, money at the exchange is also a lagging indicator.

There is little money needed at the exchange to bid up the price. All that is needed is that people on average are bullish. This will make buyers more impatient than sellers, who take their time, and the price goes up.

Inversely, a lot of money at the exchange may not avoid the price going down. All that is needed is that people on average are bearish. This will make sellers more impatient than buyers, who take their time, and the price goes down.


Just like google trends, media coverage, or hashrate, more money at the exchange is a result from the price going up. Not a cause.

Sure there is a strengthening feedback loop, more media coverage, higher hashrate, more money at the exchange pushes up the price even more, but what needs to happen first is the price going up, and then all the rest follows.

Inversely, when the price goes down, there is a weakening feedback loop, less media coverage, less hashrate, and less money will come to the exchange, driving the price even lower.
hero member
Activity: 501
Merit: 500
The funds will subside when the hype runs out.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
Man, the fact that that money's not going out means people are thinking about putting it back in.

I think we're on the verge of another bubble... already!

This time I'm betting we'll be going up, up, up, without the nasty crash of last time.




The fact that there is so little delay between those bubbles makes me think that this time we will have higher highs and probably higher lows then during the last bubble but not that much difference in between. Maybe we'll top out at 350$/BTC or so but we wont go to 1000$ straight away because not much has changed during the last bubble. Infrastructure still has to be built, money has to flow in, people have to wrap their heads around it before they invest.
After the coming bubble's burst we shoud be able to see the big underlying trend and trend channel that all the coming bubbles will follow for some time.
I envision something like that:



Yes that's exactly what will happen.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
Okay bears now is your chance to be creative on how $5 to $20 million incoming cash per day into bitcoin will send the price lower.....LAWL  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Easy - "MtGox is lying"
 Cool Cool Cool


I guess two of the last three charts on the following site are also lying as well right? Bids total is the highest ever. lol. Fail much?

http://blockchained.com/


Don't worry, I was 100% trolling. I'm more than a bull, I'm a bull moose:



Bull > Moose > Bear
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
Okay bears now is your chance to be creative on how $5 to $20 million incoming cash per day into bitcoin will send the price lower.....LAWL  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Easy - "MtGox is lying"
 Cool Cool Cool


I guess two of the last three charts on the following site are also lying as well right? Bids total is the highest ever. lol. Fail much?

http://blockchained.com/
I'll declare victory when asks goes below 100k
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
Okay bears now is your chance to be creative on how $5 to $20 million incoming cash per day into bitcoin will send the price lower.....LAWL  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Easy - "MtGox is lying"
 Cool Cool Cool


I guess two of the last three charts on the following site are also lying as well right? Bids total is the highest ever. lol. Fail much?

http://blockchained.com/


Don't worry, I was 100% trolling. I'm more than a bull, I'm a bull moose:

legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
Man, the fact that that money's not going out means people are thinking about putting it back in.

I think we're on the verge of another bubble... already!

This time I'm betting we'll be going up, up, up, without the nasty crash of last time.




The fact that there is so little delay between those bubbles makes me think that this time we will have higher highs and probably higher lows then during the last bubble but not that much difference in between. Maybe we'll top out at 350$/BTC or so but we wont go to 1000$ straight away because not much has changed during the last bubble. Infrastructure still has to be built, money has to flow in, people have to wrap their heads around it before they invest.
After the coming bubble's burst we shoud be able to see the big underlying trend and trend channel that all the coming bubbles will follow for some time.
I envision something like that:

hero member
Activity: 490
Merit: 500
... it only gets better...
More money flows in = more confidence = price hike
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
Man, the fact that that money's not going out means people are thinking about putting it back in.

I think we're on the verge of another bubble... already!

This time I'm betting we'll be going up, up, up, without the nasty crash of last time.


legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
Ever sold some of your BTC and didn't withdraw the USD because you wanted to make more of it?

That's the majority.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
Hey I am a bear for the next few months, and I have been looking over charts from other speculative financial bubbles for guidance - and comfort in the face of this very dramatic rally from $50 to over $134 as of this writing.

I believe this is a classic bear market rally. I expect to sell more into it later this week on the hopes it reaches $180.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day

Outflows:
$300k to $1 million / day

That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.

Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.

Thoughts?

You're not factoring at all the off-exchange purchases, be them through person-to-person interactions (quite sizeable at times, if rpetilia is to be believed) or Tradehill dark pools. There could be a lot more fiat flowing into the ecosystem.

Thats true, I just sticked to what we "know" and we can see. There is a market off the exchanges but no numbers have been verified so its everybodies guess what size this market has and whether more money enters or leaves the Bitcoin economy through it. I think the off exchanges market is about 1/10th of the volume size, the exchanges cover, so it wouldnt have too much of an influence on the outcome of my calculation, but again thats just ball park guessing.
SAQ
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
Are there any bears left?

A week or two ago there were indications that it was going down, but right now the buying pressure seems immense.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day

Outflows:
$300k to $1 million / day

That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.

Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.

Thoughts?

This assumes that buyers/sellers are "rational".

Correct. I expect price to detach from the "justified by market cap" levels soon, hence my closing phrase: "Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself."
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1001
Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day

Outflows:
$300k to $1 million / day

That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.

Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.

Thoughts?

You're not factoring at all the off-exchange purchases, be them through person-to-person interactions (quite sizeable at times, if rpetilia is to be believed) or Tradehill dark pools. There could be a lot more fiat flowing into the ecosystem.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day

Outflows:
$300k to $1 million / day

That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.

Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.

Thoughts?

This assumes that buyers/sellers are "rational".
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
Very nice analysis. Thank you
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day

Outflows:
$300k to $1 million / day

That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.

Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.

Thoughts?
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
Okay bears now is your chance to be creative on how $5 to $20 million incoming cash per day into bitcoin will send the price lower.....LAWL  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Easy - "MtGox is lying"
 Cool Cool Cool


Try to be creative, it's Mt.Gox moving their own money around over and over again! Grin

PS: Smoothie, what kind of refutation is this? Obviously all of these chart sites are also part of a conspiracy group, and they are lying as well! Behold at the length Gox goes to cheat noobs out of their money! Wink

ROFL! CONSPIRACY!  Tongue
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
Okay bears now is your chance to be creative on how $5 to $20 million incoming cash per day into bitcoin will send the price lower.....LAWL  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Easy - "MtGox is lying"
 Cool Cool Cool


Try to be creative, it's Mt.Gox moving their own money around over and over again! Grin

PS: Smoothie, what kind of refutation is this? Obviously all of these chart sites are also part of a conspiracy group, and they are lying as well! Everyone is cheating on you, you're being played, SELL!SELL! Wink
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
Some bullish news: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1cxdrr/reuters_tv_interview_with_mt_gox_in_tokyo/

Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day
Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day

That means that in April between $100 million and $400 million was added to the market. When confidence is restored, the price could go ballistic once again.

very interesting.  Roll Eyes

Okay bears now is your chance to be creative on how $5 to $20 million incoming cash per day into bitcoin will send the price lower.....LAWL  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Doesn't matter, bears are in denial.

But of course it matters. I need my entertainment at the Bears' expense. Popcorn is ready and well stocked on my end. Entertain me bears LOL!  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
Changing avatars is currently not possible.
Some bullish news: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1cxdrr/reuters_tv_interview_with_mt_gox_in_tokyo/

Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day
Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day

That means that in April between $100 million and $400 million was added to the market. When confidence is restored, the price could go ballistic once again.

very interesting.  Roll Eyes

Okay bears now is your chance to be creative on how $5 to $20 million incoming cash per day into bitcoin will send the price lower.....LAWL  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Doesn't matter, bears are in denial.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
Okay bears now is your chance to be creative on how $5 to $20 million incoming cash per day into bitcoin will send the price lower.....LAWL  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Easy - "MtGox is lying"
 Cool Cool Cool


I guess two of the last three charts on the following site are also lying as well right? Bids total is the highest ever. lol. Fail much?

http://blockchained.com/
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
Okay bears now is your chance to be creative on how $5 to $20 million incoming cash per day into bitcoin will send the price lower.....LAWL  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Easy - "MtGox is lying"
 Cool Cool Cool
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
Some bullish news: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1cxdrr/reuters_tv_interview_with_mt_gox_in_tokyo/

Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day
Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day

That means that in April between $100 million and $400 million was added to the market. When confidence is restored, the price could go ballistic once again.

very interesting.  Roll Eyes

Okay bears now is your chance to be creative on how $5 to $20 million incoming cash per day into bitcoin will send the price lower.....LAWL  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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