This is also arguably the "least unjust" criterion, and consistent with the general principle that lost opportunities and hypothetical profits
Absurd. Considering the fact that a lot of people were actively speculating in the bankruptsy of MtGox, and bought huge amounts of BTC (deposits) during the final days, this will be very unjust and opens for very simple pumping of claims. E.g. if I moved the BTC from my bot account, which is made up entirely by trading profits (withdrawals >> deposits), and worth 0 in this kind of liquidation, to my verified account, I would turn a claim of 0 into a claim of a huge amount. If final balances are used, this kind of cheating would be impossible because a nagetive balance is impossible.
We already discussed this on another thread. Doing that would be trying to defraud the court, like a furniture store claiming a debt that was actually paid. If you were to claim 0 withdrawals (in writing, as part of a judicial procedure) and your bot account eventually got tied to you by the auditors, you would be in real trouble.
The Madoff case isn't similar to MtGox at all, IMHO. Try an online poker site bankruptsy instead. Would someone who deposited a ton of USD years before the bankruptsy, and lost it all in poker, suddenly have a claim? While the winners who didn't withdraw in time got nothing?
It would be useful to have concrete examples of that, yes.
But I wonder whether poker site failures ever resulted in bankruptcy proceedings. Such sites must have had very few assets left to pay for bankruptcy, and civil suits would not yield much. Unless the owers could be charged with fraud, in which case their personal assets would be seized.
In an eventual bankruptcy of a poker site, the criterion must depend on how the court sees the deposits. I am totally guessing now, but if the money you deposited is viewed as advance payment for the service of allowing you to play, then your claim would be proportional to the service that you paid for but did not get: namely, the total amount you deposited, minus the amount you withdrew,
minus the total stake of the games that you got to play in the site. So, if you deposited 50$, made 10 bets of 3$ each, and withdrew 15$, all before the site closed, then your claim would be 50 - (10 x 3) - 15 = 5$, irrespective of how the bets went. This hypothetical criterion would probably result in very few positive claims.