Topic: MtGox Waiting List related to price (Read 2978 times)

IMO, having been watching the market when it was crashing down through 70,60,50 here was definitely some strong buying going on at 50 and 60 USD. Maybe it was many people, but I personally do think that the DDoS attack was real and that somebody was trying to pick up cheap coins at the expense of noobs.

Where did anyone say "registration"? Verification, meaning you need to be verified before you can trade BTC, right? That is what I was talking about.
Where did anyone say the verification queue had anything to with bitcoin? It has been pretty clear it takes time for the staff to do the verifications. And, that is the point.

I've heard people talking about waiting to be verified so they can purchase bitcoins. That is my point. I'm unsure of where you went with the thread there and how you brought up things (that you were trying to correct) that no one mentioned???

IF you don't spend your incoming money on BTC's, what will you spend them on? LTC, sure, that is possible, but this queue has been going on long before they announced LTC. And, if you want LTC now there are easier ways to do it than opening up and account here, waiting 2 or 3 weeks for verification and then waiting however much longer for them to offer LTC. Why not just go to an exchange that offers LTC?

That's better

isn't it 10 000 day/50 000 month when you're verified?

well what the crap.. while I went to the effort of getting verified, I STILL have teh 100btc/1000 USD withdrawl limit per day...

yep, some 1500 at least.

Your Position in the Verification Queue 13240

Seems they cleared about 1800 in 24 hours. 

I'm calling bullshit on the whole manipulation/DDoS meme as a bunch of whine-me-a-river self-important emo BS. Mt.Gox even released a press release saying there was never a DDoS attack, which conspiracy nuts of course promptly chose to ignore.

The market crashed because it rose way too fast. No market explodes up vertically and then just stays there. The influx of people made a bubble and its correction inevitable. I think we can reach beyond $260 again some time, but hopefully without the same fervor, or else it won't last.

A lot of leaps of imagination happening here.

First - the queue. It really doesn't mean much. To be clear, there is no REGISTRATION queue at MtGox, there is a VERIFICATION queue. It goes up and down depending on many factors that have nothing to do with bitcoin, such as how many people MtGox dedicates to performing the AML check. Also, as pointed out in this thread some people who have had accounts with MtGox for a long time are only now getting verified. (in order to increase their daily withdrawal limits). The incentive is that being verified is effectively cheaper when withdrawing fiat.

On the incoming / outgoing imbalance. Incoming amounts do not HAVE to be spent on bitcoins. Some people may have deposited cash and are now waiting for a price drop, or LTC. Some accounts may sell BTC but not withdraw the fiat. Also, based on the evidence of many - it is FAR easier and faster to deposit than it is to withdraw. Some fiat may just be waiting inside MtGox for verification, daily/monthly withdrawal limits or various SEPA related delays. So the massive inflows vs outflows are not (all) being spent on BTC - which is pretty clear just based on the prices and market activity we are observing.

Actually, I found the amount and was way to conservative above. It is not just new accounts but overall the CEO of MtGox said that 5-20 million dollars is flowing in every day and that is 17-20 times the outflow. http://www.btcpedia.com/video-inside-mtgox-bitcoin-exchange/ So, lets just take a middle number, say 12.5 million dollars in purchases made daily. At a $150 BTC, that would mean 83,333 per day bought. Volume numbers on a low day is in the 40,000 BTC range and on a high day was 600,000. I don't know exactly how to make sense of it all, but that is a large amount for just getting going.

IAS

Well, the queue has held steady at that amount, it is not only a recent number, if you look at old threads it is a fairly steady one. The link above in this thread shows that one week ago the waiting list was about the same.

Now, you may say 10,000-20,000 is a very small number. But what would you say about a future currency/stock/commodity/payment system that currently has 11 million "coins"? That, relatively speaking, is probably smaller than that small town you brought up.    Really, if BTC succeeds you will just need one. Very very likely at some point this year, maybe next, we are going to be talking mBTC or the like.

I don't have any idea what the average deposit is at MtGox, but if it is as small as $150 (say 1BTC) then that is 15,000 or so BTC purchased. If it is larger then maybe it is 30,000 - 45,000, maybe a few hundred thousand if it involves only a few VC's looking to buy more. We can only guess. The point is, the "float" is nothing and that is why you are seeing shortages reported by some. Do you realize that at some exchanges you have pools and you can only buy 1 or 2 a day if you are lucky? (I heard that on a podcast a couple of weeks ago.) Someone correct me if I'm wrong but the man (Cliff High of halfpasthuman.com) said he was hoping to be able to buy one or two if they were available. I emailed him and mentioned some other exchanges.

Any of you guys ever trade low float stocks? Explosive is an understatement and now you can add to that that the "stock" in question is global.

It's all about sharing (at some point anyway)...

If they were claiming millions of accounts backlogged then okay they are likely exaggerating.

10,000 to 20,000? pfft that is barely a small town.

Bitcoin has a VERY long way to go before it succeeds. Lets remember that first and foremost it is an experiment and that most experiments eventually fail. However they also lead to greater things.

Also whilst we're on the subject, I suspect there is a lot of exaggeration at MtGox about the number of accounts that are supposedly outstanding.

You can short BTC. And the way you'd probably do it is to first buy BTC and then transfer the BTC to a place like bitfinex or icbit, convert immediately into US dollars and then short.

I am also curious:

Is there any approximation on the number of bitcoin users?

Is there any approximation on the average quantity of BTC those users have? I mean, i can see 11 million but for me it seem just 2-3M are traded and transactioned. Also I assume 1M is lost in the days back.

And how can I see top 100 wallets?

Do you know how to read a chart? I traded professionally for years. Look at the volume of those big down days. (low). Now look at the volume of those two days where we spiked down to 50ish, the day after the 2nd down day and then 4 days later. Both formed huge "hammers" in candlestick charts on very high volume. We ate right through that resistance like butter (coming back up to where we are now). What I'm saying as a technician, that the road back to 260 is NOTHING. The large resistance is behind us. We probably have to form a base first. We are sitting on support. Though, even though we can use technical analysis with the charts, BTC is not exactly a stock, currency, commodity, etc. (not to mention the world state.)

266 to 50 was DDOS driven, throw in thousands of micro trades and fear and panic. The DDOS successes seem to be passing quickly.

Bitcoin is an anti-fragile technology and you can see it adjusting and becoming stronger.

The volatility describes the state of the world economies and the world more than it describes bitcoin. If you don't believe that ask yourself this simple question "If things were good and our currencies were strong, what interest would people have in bitcoin?"   I say it would be next to nothing, quite obviously. Bitcoin is a sign of the times.

Think about what you are saying here. MtGox does 70%-80% of the BTC trades and has a 2-3 week waiting list. The run-up in price perfectly coincides with the waiting list really starting (that is not to say it is everything, but it is something we must look at.)

Now, I'm not saying the waiting list is the price of BTC or even that it is the main factor in it - clearly there is BTCe and a host of other exchanges, but how can you say there is not link given the obvious factors and correlations? They are obviously linked, the question is just how much.

Now, of course if the price is tanking your 10k is probably going to be carefully injected into the market by you. But the volatility is a part of the game, the key is calling the bottom, looking for an uptrend, etc. So, when you have $10k and the high is $260 just a couple of weeks ago and is now at $130, there are only 11 million outstanding shares (now), currencies around the world are either collapsing or getting closer and closer to collapsing, gold is being suppressed in a variety of ways by the Federal Reserve (which is a private bank), etc. and on and on - It is pretty clear you are not going to want to wait too long as we are in an acceleration phase of something here on planet earth. That is why BTC is here the way it is now. You can see it and feel it, but being that we are within it (the eye of the hurricane) and that information is still largely controlled, it is sometimes hard to see the obvious. They tried to hide the information from us in a variety of ways (e.g. - highly manipulated stock market price, lower prices of precious metals, false unemployment numbers, etc.)

I am not trying to sound strong here, please don't take it as such. But we are at a very special time in human history.

It's About Sharing

I have mtgox account for 2 years and applied for verification on Thursday.

Yeah, 266 happened. For a few hours. And all those noobs with new accounts, that bought in at $150 to $266, how would they be feeling?

266 to 50 isn't a correction. Its a huge crash, which was not news driven. Bitcoin news has been nearly all positive in April. And clearly there was lots of new money coming into exchanges in April.

So it was market manipulation, plain and simple. DDoS events don't happen by accident.

Flash crashes are not good for bitcoins. The price volatility stops a lot of good things happening, dents confidence in this whole "experiment". I know loads of good technology people that would get involved with the bitcoin revolution but they still see it as the "wild wild west". Let's hope we've seen the last flash crash, and bitcoins will move to a whole new level.

If it succeeds and 1 coin is worth $100,000-700,000 that could be 5-10 years from now.

People who have hundreds of coins? They are all set. People who have 40-50? They'll be millionaires too. People who have 1? You'll be able to retire. So yeah it's good for anyone if what you say is true but that is precisely why it will never happen.