I think you just described what I just described
No, there is a couple of important differences.
First, everything is configured and agreed upon outside of wallet software. Wallet software is used to approve or reject payment, and it only needs to show some details of this payment.
This makes a lot of difference: since it is external, it can be very flexible, i.e. UI will be tailored for a particular case. Also, wallet software can be relatively simple, it doesn't need to have a list of dispute mediators, for example.
I'll give you an example: if you buy something via bitmit, bitmit is the dispute mediator, there are no other options, there is no third party. You simply get a payment URL from bitmit, which will send your money to 2-of-2 multi-sig address. It would require 2 signatures to unblock: your and Bitmit's.
However, some independent shop can use third-party mediator, thus you'll need 2-of-3 multi-sig and UI is considerably different, now mediator needs to be agreed upon.
Another use case is instant payments. Suppose there is a company which is sort of a instant payment operator, let's call it bit-pay. User can pre-fill his bit-pay account, sending it to 2-of-2 multisig address. Now suppose he wants to pay to a merchant which trusts bit-pay. Payment can go without any delay because merchant will trust bit-pay's signature. (I.e. merchant trusts that bit-pay won't double-spend.)
The thing is that if wallet UI is not specific to dispute mediation it's possible to do everything with a single UI, so user won't need many different clients and whatnot.
You can see bets as being mediated disputes, yes. Oracles may be more appropriate for that but either can be used.
I would not call it "mediated disputes", in my view it's more like user deposits money into his account within some services, but service doesn't have full access to that money.
Oracles might be good for individual bets, but a service can aggregate them.
For example, it might function as a prediction market, where you have current price and you can close your position whenever you want. That's quite a bit more advanced than personal bets.
I don't personally care about leveraged trading a la Bitcoinica, beyond its applicability to FX volatility hedges.
Yeah, I think FX volatility hedges is an important use case. You can do that with icbit.se futures, but you need to deposit your bitcoins unconditionally, which is unacceptable in terms of risk.